Political Fragmentation and Fiscal Status: Evidence from Municipalities in Israel

Abstract

This article analyses the link between fiscal balance and political fragmentation. While a large body of literature states that political fragmentation leads to fiscal deficits, others suggest that political fragmentation is associated with political competition, which tends to improve fiscal balance. These hypotheses are tested using budgetary and political data of municipalities in Israel for the years 1998–2006. The results suggest that both hypotheses may be correct, depending on voting behaviour. In Arab municipalities, where residents vote according to clan affiliation, low levels of political fragmentation are associated with large debts. On the contrary, in Jewish municipalities, low levels of political fragmentation are associated with small debts, since in these cases, coalition formation requires less spending and is easier to sustain.     

On the use of play theory in analyses of online public commentary

Abstract

The concept of play mediates between deliberation as a mode of reason and resistance as a mode of culture, thus opening a way to think about hostile comment (e.g., ‘flaming’) on online news forums as normal patterns of behaviour, instead of a departure from the received view of how citizens ought to consider matters of public interest. The play concept corresponds with current thinking around the notion of cultural citizenship. To illustrate the relevance of play theory in the analysis of online political discourse, this article uses an example from recent posts concerning the Protection of Information Bill (POIB) in the online site of the South African Mail & Guardian newspaper. The cogency of play theory to the concept of citizenship is argued through a discussion of how citizenship has been understood from the 1930s to the late 1980s and early 1990s, when the improved capacities of information and communications technologies (ICTs) made online deliberation a normal site for citizenship to be exercised.     

The Palestinian intifada: An analysis of a popular uprising after seven months∗

This study challenges the conventional wisdom that the Internet is a reliable source of operational knowledge for terrorists, allowing them to train for terrorist attacks without access to real-world training camps and practical experience. The article distinguishes between abstract technical knowledge (what the Greeks called techne) and practical, experiential knowledge (mētis), investigating how each helps terrorists prepare for attacks. This distinction offers insight into how terrorists acquire the practical know-how they need to perform their activities as opposed to abstract know-what contained in bomb-making manuals. It also underscores the Internet's limitations as a source of operational knowledge for terrorists. While the Internet allows militants to share substantial techne, along with religious and ideological information, it is not particularly useful for disseminating the experiential and situational knowledge terrorists use to engage in acts of political violence. One likely reason why Al Qaeda and other Islamist terrorists have not made better use of the Internet's training potential to date is that its value as a source of operational knowledge of terrorism is limited.     

An analysis of spatial correlates of terrorism using risk terrain modeling

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study is to identify correlates of terrorism in space. It examines whether places with terrorist incidents show similar patterns with respect to the physical features across landscape, and tests the spatial influence of various features of environment on the incidence of terrorism. Drawing on the locations of violent terrorist offenses committed between 2008 and 2012, the study in Istanbul applies the Risk Terrain Modeling framework to terrorism. It uses data on police incidents and infrastructure (e.g., government buildings or parks). The analysis employs GIS techniques and an event count model, and combines all risky layers in a composite map to understand where the risk is higher. The study suggests a concentration of 1153 violent terrorist incidents relative to key physical factors by identifying seventeen potential risk factors, eight of which were significantly correlated in the model. Regardless of terrorists’ intent, the significantly associated establishments increase the risk in the surrounding areas where these features are located. The coexistence of leisure places such as bakeries, religious facilities, or eateries results in higher risks. While the environmental backcloth may constitute a risk for terrorism, its components may also help forecast the locations of terrorist incidents in the future.     

Configuring ‘country ownership’: patterns of donor-recipient relations

Given the proliferation in the number and type of development actors and an expressed desire by donors to engage them in a more meaningful way, this article identifies multiple ways in which ‘country ownership’ is manifested in practice. Through comparative case research, this article examines the involvement of five sets of actors in: problem identification, resource administration, programme design, implementation, and governance. Three donor-recipient relationship patterns emerge: ‘doctor knows best’, ‘empowered patient’, and ‘it takes a village’, each with specific conditions but overall underrepresentation of recipient country actors, suggesting that their involvement could take place more often than currently occurs.

Configurer l'« appropriation par les pays » : schémas des rapports bailleurs de fonds-récipiendaires

Au vu de la prolifération du nombre et des types d'acteurs de développement et du désir exprimé par les bailleurs de fonds d'intervenir de manières plus significatives, cet article identifie des manières multiples dont se manifeste l'« appropriation par les pays » dans la pratique. À travers des recherches comparatives sur des cas particuliers, j'examine le rôle joué par cinq ensembles d'acteurs dans : l'identification des problèmes, l'administration des ressources, la conception des programmes, la mise en ?uvre et la gouvernance. Trois schémas des rapports bailleurs de fonds-récipiendaires se sont dégagés : « le docteur a toujours raison », « le patient autonomisé » et « il faut tout un village », chacun doté de conditions précises, mais avec dans l'ensemble une sous-représentation des acteurs des pays récipiendaires, ce qui suggère que leur participation pourrait avoir lieu plus souvent que ce n'est le cas à l'heure actuelle.

Configurando la “apropiación nacional”: patrones de relaciones entre donantes y destinatarios

Tomando en cuenta la proliferación numérica y el tipo de actores participantes en el desarrollo, así como el deseo expresado por los donantes de relacionarse con éstos de manera más profunda, el presente artículo señala las distintas maneras en que la “apropiación nacional” se manifiesta en la práctica. A través de investigaciones realizadas por medio de comparación de casos, la autora analiza la participación de cinco conjuntos de actores en materia de identificación de problemas, de gestión de recursos, de diseño de programas, de implementación y de gobierno. Identifica tres patrones de relación entre donantes y destinatarios: “el médico lo sabe todo”, “el paciente empoderado” y “hace falta una aldea”, cada uno con sus condicionantes específicos. Sin embargo, en general, los mismos adolecen de la baja representatividad de los actores en el país destinatario, lo cual apunta a que éstos deberían participar con una frecuencia mayor que aquella con la que actualmente lo hacen.

Configurando a “propriedade de país”: modelos de relações de doador-recebedor

Dada a proliferação no número e tipo de agentes de desenvolvimento e uma vontade expressa dos doadores de engajarem-se de maneira mais significativa, este artigo identifica várias maneiras pelas quais a “propriedade de país” é manifestada na prática. Através de pesquisa de caso comparativa, eu examino o envolvimento de cinco conjuntos de agentes: identificação de problema, administração de recursos, montagem de programa, implementação e governança. Três modelos de relação doador-recebedor surgiram: “o doutor sabe mais”, “paciente empoderado” e “é preciso uma aldeia inteira”, cada um com condições específicas, mas no geral com sub-representação de agentes do país recebedor, sugerindo que seu envolvimento poderia ocorrer de maneira mais frequente do que ocorre atualmente.     

筹建亚洲基础设施投资银行的基本思路及对策建议

为促进亚洲地区互联互通建设和经济一体化进程,中国政府倡议筹建亚洲基础设施投资银行,得到东盟的赞赏和支持。筹建亚洲基础设施投资银行已经提上重要议事日程。本文拟阐述筹建亚洲基础设施投资银行的重大意义,分析筹建亚洲基础设施投资银行面临的困难和挑战,研究提出筹建亚洲基础设施投资银行的基本思路,建议筹建亚洲基础设施投资银行率先在中国—东盟区域实现突破,取得好的成效、积累一定经验后再逐步扩大到整个亚洲地区。本文设计了亚洲基础设施投资银行的性质宗旨与职能定位、机构设置与总部选址、资金来源与合作方式等,尤其对在中国—东盟区域起步的亚洲基础设施投资银行的合作方式、期初的股本资金、各国出资金额及所占比重进行较为深入的研究,提出可行性初步操作方案,抛砖以引玉,供决策参考。需要说明的是,本文提出的观点仅是我们个人学术观点,不代表任何组织和机构。     

亚洲开发银行的运行分析及其对筹建亚洲基础设施投资银行的启示

亚洲开发银行的成立是在特定的时代背景下,各方国际力量追逐利益博弈的结果。经过40多年的运营,亚洲开发银行在资金来源、职能定位、组织结构、主要业务及未来重点发展领域等方面日趋成熟与完善。通过对亚洲开发银行运行现状进行分析,可归纳出四个方面的成功经验,但也存在五个方面的问题,这些经验与问题给亚洲基础设施投资银行的创建和未来的运营带来了诸多的启示。     

Transforming international communications strategies

The strategy used by governments to communicate with foreign populations has changed dramatically in the twentieth century. The need perceived by governments to use such a strategy in the first place derived from numerous social changes in the 150 years before World War I, most particularly the increased role played in politics by the masses organized in nation‐states. The shifting strategy of persuasive communication since then forms part of a broader transformation of international political communication which includes technological change, organizational developments, and absolute but not necessarily relative growth in international communications transactions.

The predominant strategy developed in World War I was propaganda. It used fairly straightforward appeals to rationality, sense of morality, and such important but readily accessible emotions as hatred. Its excesses, especially the wide dissemination of atrocity stories which did not bear up well under later dispassionate examination, at once made all propaganda suspect and alerted governments to the necessity of refining their communicative techniques for the eventuality of future international conflicts.

The years before and during World War II saw international communicators—especially Goebbels in Nazi Germany and the Anglo‐American psychological warriors—develop a new strategy which utilized new knowledge about the psychological roots of human behavior. In addition to straightforward appeals to the consciousness of individuals, they sought to manipulate their audiences by playing on their deep‐seated desires and fears. Of particular importance for Nazi Germany were the allegedly racial ties of the individual to a people and the need for figures of authority.

First major experiments were made in World War II to develop an even more basic strategy of international communication: structuring the situation in which people learn their predispositions, perspectives, and behaviors. Its basic idea is to create situations in which the communicator does not have to tell the targeted audience anything at all, but in which the audience, left to its own devices, can only come to the conclusions desired by the communicator. Thus strategic bombing sought to destroy the morale of the enemy's home front and, through that action, to weaken its war‐making capacity. The postwar occupation of Germany originally sought to create a new environment in which Germans could be reeducated to democracy. Subsequent emphasis has also been on communications aimed at generating certain predispositions, such as a desire for consumer goods or a particular political style, which then spawn appropriate perspectives and behaviors.

This new strategy of structural communication has its limits. The most important of these is the difficulty of controlling all aspects of a foreign population's communications environment (which includes traditions, face‐to‐face networks, and conflicting sources of information). The potential importance of the strategy nonetheless makes it likely that governments will continue to work toward its development and implementation for their own international political purposes.     

The Practice of Deliberative Democracy: A Study of 16 Deliberative Organizations

This article investigates 16 organizations that attempt to foster better public deliberation in local and national communities. It develops a typology of these organizations and discusses them in the context of the scholarly literature on deliberative democracy. It particularly focuses upon the contributions these organizations may make to debates within the literature between advocates of relational and rational modes of deliberation. It finds that, much like the literature, practitioners of deliberative democracy wrestle with the competing demands of inclusiveness and group cohesion. Organizations attempt to solve this dilemma by stressing group action. However, this emphasis on action raises another dilemma associated with the relation between deliberative and representative models of politics. The essay concludes by suggesting that these organizations have accepted the challenge of improving public life through discourse that has been laid down by deliberative democratic theory. As such, they represent a natural experiment in deliberative democracy that deserves the serious attention of the scholarly community.     

Overreporting Voting: Campaign Media,Public Mood,and the Vote

This study used regional telephone survey data collected after the 1996 U.S. presidential election to examine how two possibly important affective variables public mood and political cynicism predict actual as compared with self-reported voting. Public mood, a construct introduced by Rahn, Kroeger, and Kite (1996) to suggest how affective processes may play a role in political behavior, is shown to have two distinct but positively correlated dimensions, one positive and one negative. After demographic variables were controlled, perceived media usefulness predicted positive mood about the presidential election, which in turn predicted self-reported voting. Negative campaign attitude predicted negative mood, which, in turn, influenced actual but not self-reported voting. Political cynicism, although correlated with both positive and negative public mood, predicted neither measure of voting. The bifurcation of influence of negative and positive public mood about elections may explain why researchers have often shown positive affect to influence voting (as measured by self-report), and why political consultants have continued to rely on negative campaigning and the reported increases in negative feelings it engenders in voters to influence actual votes.