Contrasting simulated and empirical experiments in crime prevention

This paper argues that simulated experiments of crime prevention interventions are an important class of research methods that compare favorably with empirical experiments. It draws on Popper’s demarcation between science and non-science (Conjectures and refutations: the growth of scientific knowledge. Routledge, London, 1992) and Epstein’s principle of generative explanation (Generative social science: studies in agent-based computational modeling. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 2006) to show how simulated experiments can falsify theory. The paper compares simulated and empirical experiments and shows that simulations have strengths that empirical methods lack, but they also have important relative weaknesses. We identify three threats to internal validity and two forms of external validity peculiar to simulated experiments. The paper also looks at the problem of validating simulations with crime data and suggests that simulations need to mimic the error production processes involved in the creation of empirical data. It concludes by listing ways simulations can be used to improve empirical experiments and discussing the differing operating assumption of empirical and simulation experimentalists.

Die Eigendynamik zur Eindimensionalität des Parteienwettbewerbs: eine Simulationsstudie

While German ideological space is often characterized with two dimensions, empirical estimation demonstrates that party positions can be placed on a uni-dimensional scale. This seems to be inconsistent with conventional spatial models of party competition, since parties should, accordingly, exhaust the two-dimensional space to maximize their votes. This paper suggests an alternative spatial model which adjusts or removes some restrictive assumptions of the conventional models. Most importantly, the model suggested here allows parties to influence the salience and (non-)separability of both dimensions at voters’ decision processes. The simulation results demonstrate that the vote-maximizing parties can coordinate themselves in favor of inequality of the salience or non-separability of both dimensions. This, in turn, leads to a certain level of unidimensionality of party positions.     

情感与网络抗争动员——基于湖北“石首事件”的个案分析

本文打通个人层次与社会层次联系,从微观层面展现当代中国网络政治抗争动员的一般图景,以克服资源动员理论对中国网络政治抗争动员机制解释的不适应问题。湖北"石首事件"个案分析表明,情感在网络政治抗争动员过程中发挥着决定性的作用。从个体层次看,事件对网民的情感刺激决定了网民对事件的解读方式,从而直接影响公共话语建构和网民的社会认同。从社会层次看,网民情感反应根植于社会文化之中,社会文化框架决定着政府与网民互动的模式,直接决定网络政治抗争动员框架的建构。打通个体分析层次与社会分析层次的联系是理解情感影响下的社会认同建构是根本,也是理解当代中国网络政治抗争的根本。分析情感对网络政治抗争动员的影响有利于深入理解网络社会运动的内在机理,也有利于政府科学应对网络集体行动,促进政府与公众的良性互动。     

The effect of generation and age on turnout to the European Parliament – How turnout will continue to decline in the future

Electoral turnout has been declining at national elections in almost all Western democracies. European Parliament (EP) elections have followed the same trend. We utilize a previously suggested method for separating the effect of generation, age and period and show that a major part of the decline can be attributed to the difference in turnout between pre- and post-baby-boomer generations though there are substantial differences across countries. Age has a curvilinear effect on turnout even when generation is taken into account, but the age composition has remained relatively stable over time. We utilize the estimated coefficients to predict future changes in turnout as a result of the expected shifts in the generational and age compositions over the next 30 years. The results point to a continued decline in turnout to EP elections – especially between the years of 2020 and 2040.     

Assessing China's Cybersecurity Law

In November 2016, China passed its first Cybersecurity Law, aiming to strengthen cyberspace governance through a number of initiatives, including Internet operator security protection, personal information protection, special protection of critical information infrastructure, local storage of data, and security evaluation for data export. This Article discusses the major concepts and principles of the Cybersecurity Law. It also discusses the tensions and controversies inherent in the law. All in all, the Cybersecurity Law exhibits distinctive Chinese characteristics. It is premised on the concept of cyberspace sovereignty and emphasizes security over free flow of data and freedom of speech. It provides a basic legal framework for cyberspace governance in China, to be supplemented by implementing regulations in years to come.     

由鲍德里亚的仿真理论看威廉·吉布森的赛博朋克科幻小说

威廉·吉布森开创了美国赛博朋克科幻小说流派，其作品所描述的近未来世界表现了后现代科技社会真实虚化的危机，自然、人体、意识均可以被技术化、人工化、虚拟化，本文借助鲍德里亚的仿真理论对其作品所反映的这一现象进行剖析。     

刑侦用犬模拟实战教学方案研究

刑侦用犬模拟实战综合训练是具有很强操作性和应用性的实训课程。教学方案设计:1.优选课程教学形式,增强训练教学的计划性;2.师资的选配和培训;3.模拟训练案例的实验设计;等。     

道路交通事故处理模拟教学的若干问题浅议

大学教育要求着重培养学生的创造性思维和动手能力。根据目前教学的实际情况 ,开展交通事故模拟教学是十分必要的。模拟教学运行的要件 :模拟教学用具、场地与道路、教学方法与课时分配、师资、教材。     

Is administrative enforcement the answer? Copyright protection in the digital era

Copyright protection is becoming more challenging by the day in the digital era. In line with its political policy, China has established a copyright regime with particular characteristics. While the public interest in access is highlighted, the public interest in authorship has also been imposed and taken further. It also provides for public, non-criminal enforcement - copyright administrative enforcement. Could the Chinese model possibly be a solution for effective copyright protection? This will be explored in the light of an up-to-date case analysis in both actual and virtual environments.     

How you can tell if the simulations in computational criminology are any good

Computational criminology applies computer simulations to study topics of interest for criminologists. Just as for all computer modelling in science, the validity of the simulations ultimately depends on whether they are able to reproduce empirical phenomena with sufficient accuracy. The only way in which this can be determined is by comparing model output to real observations. This paper provides an overview of how such model evaluations can be undertaken.