Institutions and the stabilization of party systems in the new democracies of Central and Eastern Europe

Most explanations of party system stability focus on the strength of mass-elite linkages. We highlight the role of institutions, focusing on how electoral rules and elected institutions, especially the presidency, impact elites' incentives to coordinate on a stable set of parties or to form new parties, thus affecting electoral volatility. Using Central and Eastern European elections data, we find that directly elected presidents increase volatility and that presidential power magnifies this effect. Absent a directly elected president, high district magnitude is associated with increased volatility, but district magnitude dampens the impact of an elected president on volatility; hence, our findings underscore the interactive impact of institutions on party systems. We also find evidence that bicameralism and concurrence of presidential and parliamentary elections decrease electoral volatility. Our model not only explains persistently high electoral volatility in Eastern Europe, but the extreme stability of Western European party systems.     

BRITAIN AND YEMEN: THE END OF BRITISH RULE IN SOUTH ARABIA THROUGH THE EYES OF A YOUNG POLITICAL OFFICER

This article publishes for the first time selections of the private correspondence (placing them in their historical context) of John G. T. Shipman (1939–2016), who took up his position as assistant adviser in the Eastern Aden Protectorate at the end of 1962 just as the first signs of political and social change were appearing in South Arabia. He served from this position in different parts of the Eastern Aden Protectorate until 1967. Shipman's correspondence allows for an unmediated appreciation of how people on the ground experienced the historical events at the time, including the British withdrawal in 1967, and highlights the extent of their own grasp of the goings-on when contrasted with the historical record. In this sense, the scope of this article is to allow the voice of one of the many British colonial officials to directly narrate their encounters during the last five years of British colonial rule over southern Arabia. The perceptive eye of a young political officer coupled with the ephemeral character of his handwritten correspondence, which providentially survived for more than five decades although it was never intended for publication, offers a fresh insight into the political and social life of the Eastern Aden Protectorate.     

COMESA and the Tripartite Free Trade Area: Towards an African Economic Community?

Economic integration has been an espoused goal of the African continent for several decades, and steady progress has been made through the African Union and the eight regional economic communities (RECs). The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) is one of the largest and most diversified RECs on the continent, and played a significant role in the launch of the Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA). This article assesses the performance of COMESA, and considers the prospects for the TFTA. It also addresses the contribution of COMESA and other RECs to the continent’s economic development and considers the prospects for a potential African Economic Community.     

Creating norms around the Eastern Mediterranean energy resources as a necessary means of security

ABSTRACT

The energy discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean since the 2000s have placed the long-standing rivalry between Turkey and Cyprus (and by extension Greece) in a new context, bringing also Egypt and Israel into the geopolitical equation. Turkey, on the one hand, has adopted an assertive profile, whereas, on the other hand, two axes of cooperation have been formed, Greece-Cyprus-Egypt and Greece-Cyprus-Israel, convening trilateral summits and signing agreements. In view of that, it is currently upheld that the confluence of energy interests among the actors of the trilateral summits has facilitated a legalisation throughout the Eastern Mediterranean, propelling states towards the development of the energy resources according to the UNCLOS, and the implementation of the international law in the Cyprus problem, as a necessary means of guaranteeing the actors’ sovereignty, creating norms, and enhancing security, without targeting any third country. The argument shows how legalisation, as a special form of institutionalisation, and soft law, in particular, nurture regional cooperation and place it under the “protective wings” of international institutions.     

Visegrad: Fit for purpose?

Visegrad inter-state cooperation among the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia has faced numerous near-death experiences since its official birth in 1991. Furthermore, it has faced two challenges since the four member-countries’ accession to the EU in 2004. Then Visegrad was eulogized, considered deceased by many precisely for having achieved the apparently ultimate aim of EU membership. Second, having purposefully stated rumours of its death, Visegrad has since 2008 been confronted by issues from outside and ones well beyond its size – the Obama presidency and its apparent abandonment of Central and Eastern Europe in its “reset” strategy towards Moscow; a post-Lisbon EU agenda; strategic reorientations in NATO; and both the general, that is, global, financial crisis and particularly within the EU and regarding the Euro.This article, by contrast, contends that the fundamental changes and challenges that Visegrad has faced enhanced the Group's clear and successful strategy. It identifies and elaborates that strategy, drawing also selectively and thematically on the Group's historical experience since 1991. These strategies include targeted rather than broad selection of aims; retaining an exclusive membership while also inventing variable and flexible mechanisms for adding non-member countries to help them pursue specific initiatives. Through a study of annual Group Presidency agendas and reports, high-level and ministerial meeting declarations and media and secondary source analysis and interviews with National Coordinators, the article contends that the Group continues to promote realistic aims, and provides a unique platform for exercising them. This study concludes that Visegrad, despite the outside challenges remains effective in raising awareness, advancing smaller-scale policies and influencing EU policy towards the Western Balkans and European Partnership (EaP) countries, as well as achieving specific Visegrad initiatives with those states.     

Developing Business Education Infrastructure in Eastern Europe: Albanian Experience

Abstract

Because of its unique characteristics, Albania is faced with severe challenges. Business education is no exception. The baggage of its tragic past, under a ruthless communist dictatorship, especially the isolation of its people from free thought for almost 50 years, still lingers in people's thinking and behaviors. Generally, the Albanian schools system is well developed and there is a tradition of sound education. However, Albanian institutions of higher education are ill prepared to provide modern business education to the future leaders. The University of Nebraska—Lincoln (UNL), under the leadership of the first author, has helped modernize business education infrastructure in Albania through multiyear funding from the United States Agency for International Development and Soros Foundation. This article reports several important initiatives for business education launched by UNL: (1) the first ever MBA and MPA (Master of Public Administration) programs in Albania at the University of Tirana; (2) training more than 5000 university faculty, entrepreneurs, and government officials; (3) establishment of Business Assistance Centers at four universities; (4) development of Students in Free Enterprise (SIFE) chapters at most universities in Albania; and (5) focused training for faculty research, teaching methods, teaching evaluations, curriculum development, and outreach services.     

Marriage systems and remarriage in 19th century Hungary: a comparative study

The paper tries to examine the intensity and possible influencing factors of remarriages in two distant communities of historic Hungary during the 19th century. It uses longitudinal data gained from parish registers and family reconstitution method and event history models for the analysis of remarriage. Having only incomplete information on the social status of widowed persons, we used sex, age at widowhood, period, duration of widowhood and family composition as independent variables in the models. The analysis could prove that there were considerable differences within the ‘Eastern marriage pattern’: the analysed Transylvanian community showed a higher propensity to remarry than the West Hungarian one. This result fits well into the differing demographic patterns of the two communities. The most probable causes of these differences were better mortality and differing social composition in the Hungarian village. High propensity to remarry and the high proportion of widower/widow marriages stress the unique character of the Transylvanian community. Otherwise the role of sex was decisive in remarriage, that of age and duration of widowhood were also considerable, while period effect could not be observed. The presence of working-age sons decreased the relative risk of remarriage significantly. In this respect there were no considerable differences between the studied communities, and the results are similar to those of other research.     

Taking stock of policy performance in Central and Eastern Europe: Policy outcomes between policy reform,transitional pressure and international influence

Despite the ever growing body of scholarly work on policy developments in the post‐communist New Member States of the European Union (NMS), systematic comparisons of policy outcome performance and its determinants are still scarce. This article identifies patterns of post‐communist policy outcomes across the fields of economic, social and environmental policy. By employing pooled time‐series cross‐sectional analysis with a Fixed Effects Vector Decomposition (FEVD) estimator it investigates to what extent policy outcome performance is determined by differing policy efforts (outputs or reform tracks), transitional conditions and international influences. Although citizens are still negatively affected by the initial economic recession, especially in the social domain, policy reforms and efforts are decisive in determining the outcome performance of the NMS relative to one another in the longer run. Successful and comprehensive market reforms and steering capabilities prove to be particularly important in this regard. Furthermore, internationalisation has an important, albeit ambiguous, impact. While exposure to the world market is reflected in negative policy performance, interaction with and financial commitment from Western European Union countries promote positive policy outcomes.     

关于1960年代中国与东欧五国关系的若干问题——来自中国档案文献的新证据

1960年代中苏关系走向分裂时期,中国与苏联东欧集团中的保、捷、东德、匈、波五国的关系,受到中苏关系演变的约束,随着中苏两党两国关系的变化而起伏波动。1960年代初期中苏关系一度实现缓和后,中国与东欧五国的关系也随之呈现冷热交替,以争取缓和为主的特点。1962年末63年初,中苏围绕古巴导弹危机和中印边界冲突问题开始酝酿新的斗争。中共将对苏方针调整为以斗争、进攻为基调,准备与苏共进行论战;苏共则部署东欧五国在东欧四国党代会上对中共展开批判。中共与苏东集团意识形态公开论战开始。随着中国文化大革命运动的启动,中苏边界冲突逐步升级为局部战争,中苏关系进入敌对状态,中国与东欧五国关系也严重恶化。1960年代中国对东欧五国方针的变化,总体上与中国的对苏方针同步发展,但也有不同的内容和特点,根据时期的演进呈现出不同的变化。中国以分化苏东集团为主要目的而采取的区别对待方针突出反映在中波关系上。就总体言之,1960年代中共对东欧五国的方针既不断变化,又相互矛盾,其结果非但没有达到分化苏东集团的目的,反而在某种程度上加强了苏东集团的凝聚力。     

Why do anti‐corruption laws fail in Central Eastern Europe? A target compliance perspective

The Central Eastern European member states of the European Union have introduced a host of anti‐corruption measures in the past two decades, yet corruption is still prevalent. Rather than asking what is wrong with the letter of the law, which has traditionally been the focus of analysis, this article identifies some of the reasons why those whose behavior the law seeks to change fail to act as expected. Drawing on theoretical insights from implementation studies and using Hungary as an illustrative example, the article finds that both incentives and normative judgments are skewed towards non‐compliance with anti‐bribery laws. The main policy implications are that anti‐corruption interventions should pay more attention to raising awareness among target groups, take existing social norms into account, and rely on positive incentives as well as, or rather than, increasing penalties.