Sectoral dimensions of Poland's investment development path revisited

The purpose of the present paper is to determine the changes of the sector and industry structure of FDI and to confront the observed patterns with the hypotheses or predictions derived from the IDP model. At the heart of the IDP model lies the concept of net outward investment (NOI). The NOI position (NOIP), broken down by the main sectors and component industries of the Polish economy, is analyzed for the period of 1996–2016. We develop a conceptual framework of the sectoral shifts in the composition of NOIP along its different stages. Subsequently, our panel regression analysis indicates that the relative share of a sector in inward and outward FDI stocks is positively related to its level of technological intensity and its level of service intensity.     

俄罗斯对叙利亚政策中的东正教因素

俄罗斯在叙利亚乱局中的表现,近期再次成为国际热点。自2011年介入不断升级的叙利亚危机以来,俄罗斯目前已经成为主导叙政治进程的主要外部力量。在俄罗斯此次应对叙利亚危机的外交中,东正教因素起到了重要作用。早在帝国时期,俄国就持续介入叙利亚事务。俄罗斯与叙利亚自古以来的东正教文化交往,影响着沙俄对安提阿教会和叙利亚东正教徒的情感,成为沙俄加入中东大国角逐的突破口。此次介入叙利亚危机,是历史的延续。俄罗斯东正教会领导人的公开发言、其附属机构在国际组织对叙基督徒问题的宣传以及提供人道援助,起到了公共外交的效果,一定程度上使俄罗斯的介入和军事行动合法化,获得了俄罗斯国内外民众的理解与支持。东正教因素的上述多重影响,是俄罗斯介入此次叙利亚危机、并成功实现其外交策略和目标的重要因素之一。     

民族主义、国内政治权力结构变迁与南海争端国对华对冲差异

在国际体系变迁的背景下,东南亚三个主要的南海争端国越南、菲律宾和马来西亚普遍采用对华对冲战略以应对中国崛起带来的不确定性。但是,三国的对华对冲差异何以存在仍是个尚需进一步澄清的理论问题。在政治结构具有较高自主性的情况下,民族主义诉求强度以及国内政治权力结构变迁是影响三国对华对冲差异的主要因素,导致三国分别实施了对抗、均衡与合作三种不同类型的对冲。二者通过执政者的合法化战略影响对冲的实际演化,弱民族主义诉求推动争端国采取合作型对华对冲,但随着民族主义诉求增强且政治权力结构趋于集中化,争端国将采取均衡型对冲;在民族主义诉求增强且政治权力结构趋于分散化的情况下,争端国将采取对抗型对冲。国内政治权力结构的未来演变可能导致南海争端国实施更具对抗性的对华对冲战略,推动南海局势发生于中国不利的变化。     

The welfare cost of terrorism

Data from 117 countries over the period 2006 to 2011 are used to estimate a macroeconomic cross-country system of equations that examines the association between terrorism, self-reported life satisfaction, and national income. Results indicate that terrorism is negatively associated with life satisfaction, whereas no such association is found between terrorism and real GDP per worker. Stark contrasts are found, however, between OECD and non-OECD members. In all, our results suggest that the social costs of terrorism are potentially much higher than the economic costs, and measuring only the conventional economic costs of terrorism significantly underestimates the true costs.     

Does economic inequality breed political inequality?

Does economic inequality generate political inequality? While there is a large literature on the effect of inequality on regime change and support for democracy, there is little research on its effect on political equality across socioeconomic positions. Yet democracy and political equality, although related, are distinct concepts. While political power tends to be more evenly distributed in democracies than in autocracies, there is substantial variation in both regime types. This study argues that economic inequality should decrease political equality through multiple mechanisms: (1) it increases the resources of the rich relative to the poor; (2) it widens the gap in policy preferences across income groups; (3) it reduces participation; and (4) it depresses support for democracy. Using three measures of inequality and data on more than 140 countries between 1961 and 2008, it was found that economic inequality tends to increase political inequality, even when one controls for the level of democracy. Results hold when the sample is restricted by regime type. Finally, evidence in favour of the mechanisms is provided.     

Theorizing Postcolonial Deliberation and Deliberative Peacebuilding

Given a legitimation problem of vertical (state vs society) and horizontal (modernity vs tradition) inequalities and differences as a historical and cultural cause of conflict, deliberation is instrumental in addressing this legitimation problem and transforming conflict into peace in the postcolonial, post-conflict context. Although deliberation has gained academic attention as a means of addressing the legitimation crisis in Western liberal democracies, its application to contemporary peacebuilding remains under-researched. This article thus aims to theorize postcolonial deliberation and deliberative peacebuilding, highlighting postcolonial history and culture and the critical role that agencies have played in deliberation to re-legitimize the non-Western polity and transform conflict into peace. It then deduces a hypothetical mechanism of the different paths to peace either with or without the external intervention that signifies how agencies deliberate.     

The electoral consequences of austerity: economic policy voting in Europe in times of crisis

Abstract

Voters typically observe macroeconomic outcomes in order to evaluate government performance. However, during crises, when the clarity of economic responsibility is poor and the economy is in recession, citizens need additional sources of information in order to form a reasoned opinion. Government policy response is one such source. This study shows on a sample of 24 European nations from 2004, 2009 and 2014 that in the post-crisis period, economic policies have emerged as one of the key predictors of vote choice, with government decisions to pursue fiscal austerity leading to significantly lower levels of incumbent support. Furthermore, the paper tests the possibility that the effect of austerity is conditioned by the clarity of responsibility. In multilevel systems, where policies are externally imposed, voters could be expected to hold incumbents less accountable for unpopular measures. The analysis, however, provides no evidence that policy effects depend on the extent to which national governments share policy responsibilities with supranational and intergovernmental institutions. Accountability for policy actions is primarily attributed at the domestic level as voters are able to identify the decisional role of national governments.     

黄渤海经济圈产业合作与全北-天津相互发展

近年来,随着东北亚地区经济合作增加,环黄渤海地区受到关注。最近,韩国公布了“第四次国土综合修正计划”(2006—2020年),而中国也发表了“十一五计划”(2006-2010年)。虽然韩中两国因社会经济条件不同而其关注角度也不同,但是长期发展计划从“地区均衡发展”角度看具有共性。因此,把韩国全罗北道圈发展构想和中国天津圈发展展望一同考虑并研究两个地区相互合作方案具有重要意义。中韩两国应加强在生产、流通、物流、文化、教育方面的相互开放,联系与合作,以促进环黄(渤)海经济圈的形成。     

文化自觉与畲族经济转型

本文对畲族如何通过文化自觉来寻求经济的转型作了简要分析。一是从观念层面超越“耐劳杂作,弗事商贾”的传统农本意识、淡化“山野自足,于世无求”的族群封闭心理;二是从实践层面复兴与光大丰厚的山地农耕技术文化、梳理并激活沉寂、独特的民俗文化遗产。     

语言的权利与权力的语言:试析乌尔都语在印度和巴基斯坦的不同地位

莫卧尔时期,乌尔都语逐渐取代波斯语和阿拉伯语的官方地位。英国殖民地时期,英国推行英语教育和西方教育政策,英语逐渐成为权力语言。英国出于分而治之钳制印度教徒和穆斯林的需要,曾经默许资助和扶持穆斯林传统教育,使乌尔都语在殖民地后期得到发展。印巴分治后,乌尔都语在穆斯林统治的巴基斯坦成为官方语言,而在印度教派统治的印度却只能是地区语言。正如塞缪尔.亨廷顿所说:"文化在世界上的分布反映了权力的分布。文化几乎总是追随着权力。"