The undecided voters and the economy: Campaign heterogeneity in the 2005 British general election

Research and conventional wisdom suggest that undecided voters are especially prone to campaign persuasion. Little has been done, however, in the way of uncovering the decision pathways followed by these voters. In this paper we seek to assess the undecided voters’ alleged campaign susceptibility and, most importantly, to explore which campaign considerations inform their final voting decisions. Our central finding is that their behaviour is driven to a larger extent by economic performance and less by leadership or other valence evaluations. This finding has important implications for parties’ campaign strategies in an era where the ranks of undecided voters are steadily expanding from one election to the other.     

Economic voting in Spain: A 2000 panel test

Considerable research shows the economy matters for voters. But that view has come under attack, with revisionists arguing that it matters little. This dissenting view fits the Spanish case well, where reigning research finds virtually no economic voting exists. We argue against the revisionist view, suggesting that conclusion stems largely from methodological limitations in its supporting cross-sectional survey analyses. Given the causality question these analyses raise, particularly in the context of likely endogeneity, a panel analysis is called for. We examine the most recent available panel survey, from the 2000 general election, estimating fully specified multinomial logit models. We find strong economic effects. Spain appears, after all, to have an electorate capable of holding the government economically accountable, at least in this instance.     

行政管理支出、城市化与经济增长的动态计量分析

建立在向量自回归模型的基础上,运用Granger因果关系检验、协整理论和向量误差修正模型分析我国行政管理支出、城市化和经济增长之间的动态关系。结果表明：我国城市化发展滞后于经济发展;城市化水平的提高导致行政管理支出的膨胀。长期来说,三者之间存在稳定的均衡关系,其中,经济增长与城市化水平正相关、与行政管理支出负相关;行政管理支出与城市化水平正相关。短期来说,我国的经济增长和城市化水平都有惯性上升的趋势,其它变量的波动对其影响不显著;短期内行政管理支出也有惯性增长趋势,同时受城市化水平波动的影响;而且,三个变量对上一期非均衡的校正能力都很弱。     

关于罗斯福"新政"中抑制贫富分化的立法内容及其启示

1933年新上任的美国总统富兰克林·罗斯福在美国实施了经济制度的调整和改革,在这次制度大调整当中,法制建设和改革,特别是抑制贫富分化的法律制度建设功不可没.了解关于罗斯福"新政"中抑制贫富分化的立法内容,不仅使我们了解美国是如何加强总体的民主性、公正性法制建设的,同时,还可以了解美国在立法上是怎样直接以抑制贫富分化为目标,对市场经济体系实施一系列的调控和干预的.     

Welfare Performance in Southern Europe: Employment Crisis and Poverty Risk

The Great Recession has had a deep impact on employment levels and on income inequality in the Southern European countries (Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy). It has given rise to a new stage in the discussion on the distinctiveness of a possible ‘Mediterranean’ variant of welfare capitalism. This paper analyses the performance of the Mediterranean cluster during the Great Recession period in its two main dimensions, labour market participation and poverty risk, and to what extent that performance has evolved in a divergent or convergent manner. Firstly, it portrays the main changes in this variant of welfare capitalism during the last two decades. The second and third sections, respectively, provide a comparative profile of the employment crisis suffered by these countries and of its impact on poverty risks. Finally, the main institutional traits are discussed, explaining the relative performance of welfare capitalism in this cluster of countries.     

Support for Democracy in Times of Crisis: Diffuse and Specific Regime Support in Portugal and Greece

In the context of a cross-national economic crisis, questions about democratic legitimacy are again topical. We explore the question of democratic legitimacy in Portugal and Greece by employing the conceptual differentiation between diffuse and specific regime support. Our findings indicate that while specific support has fallen in both countries, only Greece has experienced a precipitous fall in diffuse support, suggesting a link between regime performance and support for democracy. Individual-level analyses do not reveal any clear patterns concerning the impact of long-term societal factors or short-term economic considerations. Due to data quality limitations the paper has a predominately exploratory nature.     

An Anatomy of Mass Protests: The Orange Revolution and Euromaydan Compared

This article surveys and discusses the latest wave of mass protests in Ukraine, the Euromaydan. This study situates the Euromaydan within the history of the other protests in post-communist Ukraine and makes a comparison to the Orange Revolution (the Orange Revolution). The authors recognize the importance of international factors, but argue that Ukrainian domestic political factors contributed significantly not only to the emergence, but also to escalation of the latest conflict in Ukraine. This study tests a theory about the role of institutional factors versus the role of cultural-historic legacies in the process of mass protest formation and conflict development. We argue that institutional factors, such as: governmental policies; the composition of governmental, opposition, and civil society groups; corruption; and timing of legislative activity on most divisive issues in Ukraine have contributed to the conflict escalation in Ukraine.     

Regionalism and African agency: negotiating an Economic Partnership Agreement between the European Union and SADC-Minus

This article investigates the regional dynamics of African agency in the case of negotiations on an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between the EU and a group of Southern African countries, known as SADC-Minus. I argue that these negotiations were shaped by a pattern of differentiated responses to the choice set on offer under the EPAs by SADC-Minus policy makers and by a series of strategic interactions and power plays between them. I offer two contributions to an emerging literature on the role of African agency in international politics. First, I argue for a clear separation between ontological claims about the structure–agency relationship and empirical questions about the preferences, strategies and influence of African actors. Second, I suggest that, in order to understand the regional dynamics of African agency, it is important to pay close attention to the diversity and contingency of African preferences and to the role of both power politics and rhetorical contestation in regional political processes.     

北部湾经济区保税物流体系建设研究

保税物流是国家给予广西经济发展的优惠政策,是推动北部湾经济区开放开发的重要工具,如何构建北部湾经济区保税物流体系是广西经济发展面临的重要课题。保税物流是高端物流,对区域经济发展的贡献较大。北部湾经济区保税物流体系建设重点是在市场、物流与制度上与国际接轨,构建高效的运营管理机制和紧密联系的产业分工协作机制。在产业定位与选择上是培育区域具有竞争力的优势产业,同时建立支撑产业发展的配套服务体系。在建设过程中要注意避免产生孤岛效应。     

辽宁沿海经济带开发建设中海洋利用与保护问题研究

该文分析了辽宁沿海经济带发展规划实施以来海洋利用与保护工作面临的形势和存在的主要问题,提出了加强辽宁海洋利用与保护、服务沿海经济带建设的对策和建议。