《美韩自由贸易协定》的新变化及其背后的动态博弈

《美韩自由贸易协定》达成后,其进展并不顺利。经过两次追加谈判,历时四年多,最终获得美韩两国国会的批准。本文以2011年2月10日美韩双方签署的新协定为切入点,首先论述了《美韩自由贸易协定》的新变化及其实质,进而从理论和实证两方面对这种新变化背后美国国内政治的动态博弈进行了阐述。通过分析,充分再现了美国国内政治博弈对《美韩自由贸易协定》的内容和走向施加影响的过程,并由此看出,美国政治体制的掣肘已经成为美国迫使对方做出妥协或更大让步以实现自身利益最大化的筹码。     

Gendered Responses to Serious Strain: The Argument for a General Strain Theory of Deviance

This paper expands and builds on newer avenues in research on gender and general strain theory (GST). I accomplish this by focusing on serious strains that are relevant for males and females, including externalizing and internalizing forms of negative emotions, and including multiple gendered deviant outcomes. Using the Add Health dataset, I find strong support for the impact of serious strains on both types of negative emotions and different forms of deviance for males and females. However, the experience of serious strain, emotionally and behaviorally, is gendered. Depressive symptoms are particularly important for all types of deviance by females. Including multiple types of deviant outcomes offers a fuller understanding of both similarities and differences by gender. These results support the utility of GST as a theory of deviance in general and support greater connections between GST, feminist theorizing, and the sociology of mental health.     

Kalevipoeg: Aspects of Genre and Authorship

F. R. Kreutzwald introduced the Estonian national epic Kalevipoeg (1861) as genuine folklore, overshadowing his own prevalent role in its creation: the problems of genre and authorship persist in the text. Firstly, Kalevipoeg was shaped by the poetics of romantic balladry. This can be proved by its author’s devotion to the ballad; in addition, many a lyro-epic folk song has been integrated into Kalevipoeg. Thus, a ballad-like lyro-dramatical-epical structure bears upon the work which gave rise to a new form: the lyro-epic epic. Secondly, a complex cluster of authorship can be extracted from Kalevipoeg: personal, fictional, intertextual, and discursive authorships.     

GENERATIVE EXPLANATIONS OF CRIME: USING SIMULATION TO TEST CRIMINOLOGICAL THEORY*

This study demonstrates that computational modeling and, in particular, agent‐based modeling (ABM) offers a viable compatriot to traditional experimental methodologies for criminology scholars. ABM can be used as a means to operationalize and test hypothetical mechanisms that offer a potential explanation for commonly observed criminological phenomena. This study tests whether the hypothesized mechanisms of environmental criminology are sufficient to produce several commonly observed characteristics of crime. We present an ABM of residential burglary, simulating a world inhabited by potential targets and offenders who behave according to the theoretical propositions of environmental criminology. A series of simulated experiments examining the impact of these mechanisms on patterns of offending are performed. The outputs of these simulations then are compared with several well‐established findings derived from empirical studies of residential burglary, including the spatial concentration of crime, repeat victimization, and the journey to crime curve. The results from this research demonstrate that the propositions of the routine activity approach, rational choice perspective, and crime pattern theory provide a viable generative explanation for several independent characteristics of crime.     

How General is Control Balance Theory? Evidence from Ukraine

This study tests control balance theory using interview data from a random sample of adults in a large city in Ukraine. This is the first empirical assessment of the theory to employ a random sample of adults in a nonwestern culture, and it is one of only two studies to incorporate Tittle’s theoretical revisions and measurement strategy for the control ratio. Although we found no evidence of a relationship between projected deviance and a dichotomous measure of control imbalance, respondents with a relatively large control imbalance were significantly more likely to project deviance than were other respondents. In addition, findings provide partial support for predicted contingent relationships involving constraint and self-control. We discuss possible ways in which the socio-cultural circumstances of Ukraine help to explain these findings.     

Getting Caught and Getting Hitched: An Assessment of the Relationship Between Police Intervention,Life Chances,and Romantic Unions

Little research has assessed the link between formal police intervention, financial hardship, and the formation and quality of romantic relationships. Using data from the Rochester Youth Development Study, we contribute to this literature by examining effects of police intervention at two time points on marriage stability and romantic relationship quality. We find that police intervention during adolescence is associated with increases in financial hardship during young adulthood, which, in turn, decreases the odds of entering into a stable marriage by age 31 and the extent to which those who have a romantic relationship feel their partner is supportive. Early police intervention also is indirectly associated with a reduction in partner satisfaction and an increase in partner violence via young adult arrest. We conclude that even minimally invasive contact with the criminal justice system during adolescence has long-lasting collateral consequences in the family arena.     

Misperceived Neighborhood Values and Informal Social Control

Social disorganization theory explains the effects of neighborhood structure and culture on crime and delinquency. Within this perspective, the role of neighborhood informal social control is argued to be an important protective factor against many social problems. While a growing body of research supports the importance of informal social control, we still have limited understanding of its development. Of the research that does exist in this area, most examines structural processes supporting informal social control, while cultural aspects of communities have only rarely been examined. We further develop this limited body of research by drawing on the prevention literature that focuses on social norms and their misperceptions. Specifically, this study examines the role of pluralistic ignorance regarding neighborhood values on the likelihood of informal social control. The results are discussed in relation to social norms theory and their relevance for crime‐prevention strategies.     

Measuring the Contextual Effects and Mitigating Factors of Labeling Theory

Despite the longevity of labeling theory, there remains a need for further empirical validation. We examine three ways that official intervention may lead to secondary (that which occurs following the fixation of a label) deviance: self-concept, pro-social expectations, and association with deviant peers. We examine a sample of labeled and non-labeled individuals, utilizing data from the Children at Risk study. Based on our analytical view of a three-year panel of 677 randomly selected juveniles, ordinary least squares regression shows that official intervention with the criminal justice system leads to an increased delinquent self-identity, decreased pro-social expectations, and an increased association with delinquent peers, which then lead to an increased likelihood of engaging in subsequent delinquency. While validating the theory, we suggest a revised model of labeling that better depicts the complicated association between formal labeling and subsequent delinquent behavior. We conclude with policy suggestions based on less formal interventions for offenders.     

The Pains of Imprisonment Revisited: The Impact of Strain on Inmate Recidivism

Recent research suggests that imprisonment may increase subsequent levels of offending, but it is not clear why this is the case. Drawing on general strain theory (GST), this study examines whether exposure to the strains associated with imprisonment affects recidivism. These strains include direct victimization, the perception of a threatening prison environment, and hostile relationships with correctional officers. Consistent with GST, data from a sample of 1,613 recently released inmates in Ohio suggest that certain types of these strains do increase the likelihood of recidivism. These results challenge specific deterrence theory and claims by public officials that painful prisons will reduce reoffending.     

防御性医疗的经济分析——兼评《侵权责任法》第63条

防御性医疗是医疗服务提供者基于"经济人"理论与预期效用理论的理性选择。风险厌恶与预期效用最大化是防御性医疗的经济学基础。医疗过失判断的不确定性及巨额的责任风险是防御性医疗的法律制度基础。信息的不对称性及供给与需求的非市场性是防御性医疗的市场基础。它是医疗过失诉讼制度在市场经济体制下不可剥离的副产品。纯粹的禁止性立法不足以制止防御性医疗。《侵权责任法》第63条很难收到预期的立法效果,建议对医疗过失诉讼制度的运用及医疗损害赔偿的额度进行合理限制。