日本民主党实现政权交替可能性分析

"政党不信"与民主党突起,2003年日本众议院选举形成了民主党与自民党对峙的两大政党格局。然而,从众议院选举以及政党的分化过程来看,民主党实现政权交替的条件尚未成熟。其一,民主党的选举纲领,与英国政党比较,基本沿用了传统的"选举后模式",还未能向"政策选择可能性"的政权纲领转换;其二,由于在野党分崩离析与整合困境,民主党尚未形成强大的政权交替的推动力量;其三,在以小选举区制为中心的选举制度下,自民党"一党超强"地位仍未改变。     

东北亚地区国际劳务合作对东北振兴的影响

通过国际劳务合作促进劳动力的国际流动 ,是实现劳动力资源有效配置的一个重要途径。加强东北地区的国际劳务合作 ,对于缓解东北地区的就业压力、提高劳动力素质具有重要的意义。目前 ,东北地区参与东北亚国际劳务合作的规模基本上处于稳定发展的态势 ,具有波动性较大、合作的领域比较集中、收益不高的特点 ,这与东北地区的社会经济环境以及劳务接收国的政策密切相关。但东北地区参与东北亚国际劳务合作的潜力还是非常巨大的 ,为此 ,国家应给予东北地区必要的政策支持 ,积极推动东北亚地区建立合理的国际劳务合作机制 ,加强劳动力培训方面的合作 ,引进专业技术及管理人才 ,促进东北振兴的实现。     

社会主义政治的实践本质

社会主义政治在本质上是实践的。因此,应当以马克思主义实践的观点和方法研究社会主义政治现实基础和运动过程,说明这个运动过程的历史逻辑、价值趋向和人在政治历史中的能动作用,描绘人的政治活动在理论批判、政治决策、政治制度建构和变革诸方面的展开。相对于政治实践和现实的政治关系而言,政治观念、政治制度不是本原,不是政治研究的基本前提和出发点。当代中国的马克思主义政治理论应当研究中国社会主义政治实践提出的现实问题。     

Overlapping polarization: On the contextual determinants of the interplay between ideological and affective polarization

Previous literature has distinguished two types of polarization: ideological and affective. However, little is known on how the interconnection of these two polarizations (which we call overlapping polarization) varies depending on the political context. Is affective polarization always associated with ideological polarization? What is the role of the institutional framework (i.e., democratic age and popular election of the head of state) and the party system (i.e., elite polarization and number of parties) in determining how wide this overlap is? This article examines the contextual determinants of overlapping polarization by using information from the four first CSES waves. According to our analyses, the individual-level positive effect of ideological polarization on affective polarization is stronger when the party system is ideologically polarized and in older democracies, and is weaker in presidential democracies and when the number of parties is higher.     

Do competitive districts get more political attention? Strategic use of geographic representation during campaign and non-campaign periods

MPs are elected as delegates of their electoral district to represent their constituents' interests. Geographical representation is considered a central quality indicator for legislative systems. Yet whether the strategic use of geographic representation is affected by tactical campaign considerations has received less attention. The availability of social media data on a fine-grained level allows us to fill this gap by studying the following question: To what extent do politicians strategically use geographic representation during electoral campaign and non-campaign times? I combine literature comparing campaign and non-campaign periods with studies on strategic incentives for MPs to geographic representation. Empirically, I rely on quantitative text-analytical tools to study German politicians’ tweets from the entire 19th legislative period (2017–2021). My findings have important implications for the geographic representation literature as they imply that MPs use geographic references strategically, especially during campaign periods. Prospective competitive districts receive substantially more political attention already during non-campaign periods, yet further amplified during electoral campaigns.     

Politics by denunciation: Political whistleblowing against members of parliament in Italy

Judicial investigations into politicians are a fundamental component of politics, with these investigations often leading to public scandals. Yet, empirical evidence of the strategic determinants of judicial investigations is intrinsically hard to gather, a problem that has significantly limited the study of this important phenomenon. This paper studies the politics behind judicial investigations by leveraging new data on prosecutors’ informants in 1125 episodes of misbehavior of Italian MPs involved in different crimes (1983–2019). Results provide evidence in favor of a political use of denunciations for corruption crimes: when a party weakens, the likelihood that political enemies denounce past misbehavior of members of the weakened party increases, suggesting that the political use of denunciation is elastic to changes in the electoral performance. Furthermore, weakened MPs are more likely to be accused of misbehavior that happened a long time before the accusation, which further supports the argument that accusations are politically motivated.     

Party factions and coalition government: portfolio allocation in Italian Christian Democracy

In this paper I elaborate a recently advanced argument about government formation, and assess it by studying the factions of the Italian Christian Democratic Party (DC). I contend that the costs of making and breaking coalitions depend on political institutions and on the configuration of actors in policy space. Comparisons across parties in Italy and other countries support this argument. So also do comparisons across party factions. The Christian Democratic factions that incurred the lowest office costs to build coalitions were those at or near the left–right median in Italy's core party. When electoral rules were rewritten in the DC, internal party competition over portfolio allocation changed as well. The paper's conclusion outlines how the argument would guide further research on party factions.     

马来西亚政党政治的变化及其走向

巫统一党独大是马来西亚长期以来政党政治的一大特点 ,但是 1999年末马来西亚第 10次大选却表明这种局面正在发生明显的变化 ,这必将对马来西亚的政局产生深远的影响。本文试从马来西亚政党政治变化入手 ,分析变化的成因 ,并对今后一个时期马来西亚政党政治和政局的发展趋势作一展望。     

The revival and decline of rank and file movements in Britain during the 1930s

The economic and political crisis of 1931 provoked the reappearance of rank and file movements in Britain. This article examines the unofficial organisations that developed in building, engineering, passenger transport and the railways – as well as more ephemeral bodies. It critically synthesises the existing historiography and replenishes it with new material from the Russian archives. The progress of rank and filism to 1939 is surveyed and the largely forgotten project of a new Communist-led rank and file organisation, a Trade Union Militant League, which would supersede the National Minority Movement, is recuperated. The article stresses the role of Comintern policy in harnessing and moulding grass-roots rebellion. It validates that strand in the literature which argues that Moscow’s subsequent turn to the popular front and aspirations to alliances with labour movement leaders predominated over, and legitimated, indigenous influences, enhanced existing adaptation to trade unionism, and encouraged subordination of oppositional movements to activity in official structures. By 1939, the Communists had abandoned the idea of a national rank and file movement they had pursued since 1923. Little survived of the revolutionary enterprise launched in 1931. Rank and filism endured only as a handful of sectional, party-sponsored, trade union ginger groups.     

“Scientific independence”, capacity building,and the development of UNESCO’s science and technology agenda for Africa

Abstract

This article analyses the shifting rationales for scientific collaboration in the work of the United Nations Economic, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) in the science sector in Africa from the late colonial period through to the era of capacity building. Focusing on the late colonial period and the post-independence decades of “national science” in Africa, it analyses UNESCO’s role in science policy, engineering training, and natural resources research. It demonstrates that in the era of national science UNESCO’s activities were couched in the language of independence: developing capacities in the sciences was regarded as the key to obtaining “scientific independence” to match the recently obtained political independence. This marked a significant change from the 1950s when UNESCO based its operations in Africa on collaborations with the European colonial powers. The article argues that the link between scientific independence and political self-determination gave way as UNESCO rebranded scientific capacity-building activities as efforts in the pursuit of an unclearly-defined common good.