泰国：2013年回顾与2014年展望

2013年10月底起,泰国再度爆发大规模反政府示威活动,迫使英拉总理解散国会下议院,并计划于2014年2月2日举行新大选。受到全球经济复苏放缓、政局动荡、国内消费下降等因素的影响,泰国经济2013年出现倒退,全年国内生产总值增长率为2.9%,低于政府的预期。外交方面,与周边国家的友好关系得到深化,区域及国际合作有所加强。     

第三方因素与中美关系的逆社会化——以中国周边安全态势为例

2008年金融危机以来,中美关系下行趋势渐显。对此,国内外学者从体系结构压力、对外战略、国内政治以及意识形态等角度提出了诸多解释。然而,现实中中美关系日趋下行的原因却更为复杂。近年来频频发酵的钓鱼岛危机、南海争端以及朝核危机等第三方因素逐渐凸显,对中美关系的破坏作用不容忽视。为弥补既有解释的不足,作者将尝试从第三方视角构建一个替代性的逆社会化理论框架。这一理论认为,中美关系中的第三方可以通过冲突化、污名化与互信退化三个微观机制诱发中美关系的紧张局势。案例研究表明:日本挑起的钓鱼岛争端不仅诱发了中美关于东海防空识别区的冲突,而且加剧了中美两国在西太平洋地区的军事竞争。菲律宾则借黄岩岛危机,在国际上大肆丑化中国形象,其发起的南海仲裁案使得中美两国相互认知日趋负面。朝鲜近年来频繁进行核试验,更是加剧了中美两国在制裁朝鲜、部署萨德系统等问题上的战略互疑。对于第三方的逆社会化效应,中美双方均应高度警惕、精心管控。     

从NAFTA到USMCA:投资争端解决机制的变化、成因及启示

2020年7月生效的《美国—墨西哥—加拿大协定》在投资争端解决机制上一改《北美自由贸易协定》下偏重对投资者权利保护的“新自由主义”精神,回归对国家规制权能的重视。在适用对象、适用争议、适用程序上作出变化与革新。全球价值链收缩及“慢球化”、投资争端解决机制的内在合法性危机以及对东道国规制权力的削弱,是国际投资争端解决机制发生变化的深层次经济、法律与政治动因。《美国—墨西哥—加拿大协定》投资争端解决机制的变化与革新将进一步推动“卡尔沃主义”的回归以及加剧国际投资法体制内部的碎片化趋势。中国应积极支持及推进投资争端解决机制改革,使其发挥正面作用,同时辩证吸收“卡尔沃主义”的合理因素,积极探索诸如前置协商、投诉与帮助以及调解等解决投资者与东道国之间投资争议的多元渠道。     

Bounding the Commons: Land Demarcation in Northeastern Nicaragua

In north-eastern Nicaragua, territorial titling of communal lands conflates particular notions of ethnicity with proprietary conceptions of space to generate new forms of conflict within and between indigenous and black communities, and with mestizo migrants. Notions of rights between competing groups, or within conflicting normative frameworks, become increasingly polemic during demarcation. While analysis of three land titling case studies demonstrates that results are socially contingent and place based, trends include: (a) power disparities; (b) tension between 'traditional' and 'modern' patterns of land tenure and resource rights; and (c) contradictions fed by international conservation agendas and neoliberal economic reforms. Combining critical actor-based analysis with practical policy critique our work illuminates how contestations over the bounding of communal territories contribute to social injustice.     

White Supremacist Activity and Crossburnings in North Carolina

This study examines whether the incidence of crossburnings rises in areas where white supremacist organizations, such as the Christian Knights of the Ku Klux Klan, have held rallies or demonstrations. Using data from two public interest groups, Klanwatch and North Carolinians Against Racial and Religious Violence, we track crossburnings and white supremacist activities in 100 North Carolina counties annually for the period 1987–1993. Various statistical models, including an event count analysis that allows each county to have its own level or reporting bias, indicate that the base rate at which crossburnings occur rises sharply in counties where a demonstration has taken place. Since none of the suspected crossburners has apparent ties to white supremacist groups, it may be that white supremacist rallies encourage fellow travelers to engage in this form of racial intimidation.     

Civil Society,Environmental Security and Knowledge: Forest Governance in Thailand and the Philippines in the Context of ASEAN

In the domain of environmental security, it appears that a strong civil society, one with strong social ingenuity and social capital, is a necessary condition not only for environmental security, but also for regional security in general. This paper will argue that in the context of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), much can be learned from the empirical experiences of Thailand and the Philippines that have established records of accomplishment in civil society participation in forest governance. Also discussed is the possible role of epistemic communities both within these countries as well as across countries in the ASEAN in harnessing institutions of knowledge to influence domestic and regional governance of forest resources.     

“金三角”地区毒品形势系列调查报告（三）——泰国北部地区毒情形势的调查

2006年12月24日至2007年1月4日,国家社科项目"‘金三角’地区毒品对我渗透形势的新变化及应对策略"课题组赴泰国北部地区考察了该地区毒情。据统计,泰国政府近5年来进行的扫毒工作取得了较好效果,毒品交易量呈下降趋势,查获毒品总量也逐年减少。泰国北部地区的毒情对我全面分析研究"金三角"地区毒品的渗透形势有重要参考价值。     

The North Korean abduction issue: emotions,securitisation and the reconstruction of Japanese identity from ‘aggressor’ to ‘victim’ and from ‘pacifist’ to ‘normal’

Abstract

After Kim Jong-il's confession in 2002 that North Korean agents had abducted thirteen Japanese citizens in the 1970s and 1980s, North Korea has become the most detested country in Japan, and the normalisation of bilateral relations has been put on the back burner. The abduction issue has taken precedence in Japan even over North Korea's development of nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. It has also grossly overshadowed the atrocities for which Imperial Japan was responsible in the 20th century. Why has there been such strong emphasis on an issue that could be disregarded as comparatively ‘less important’? This article understands the ascendency of the abduction issue as the epitome of an identity shift under way in Japan – from the identity of a curiously ‘peaceful’ and inherently ‘abnormal’ state, to that of a more ‘normal’ one. The differentiation of North Korea as ‘abnormal’ emphasises Japan's own (claim to) ‘normality’. Indeed, by incarnating the perils of Japan's own ‘pacifist’ ‘abnormality’, which has been so central to the collective sense of Japanese ‘Self’ in the post-war period, the abduction issue has become a very emotional argument for Japan's ‘normalisation’ in security and defence terms. The transformation from ‘abnormal’ to ‘normal’ is further enabled by Japan trading places with North Korea in the discourse, so that Japan is defined as ‘victim’ (rather than former aggressor) and North Korea as ‘aggressor’ (rather than former victim). What is at stake here is the question whether Japan is ‘normalising’ or ‘remilitarising’, and the role of the abduction issue discourse in enabling such foreign and security policy change.     

The European Union in Sudan: A Missed Opportunity?

Abstract

International organisations active in Africa are often criticised for their ineffectiveness. So too is the European Union (EU), which is also accused of failing to assume a more prominent conflict management role in war-torn countries. This article examines the EU’s capacity and readiness to take on such a role in one such country, the former Republic of Sudan, home to Africa’s longest-running civil wars and the first ‘genocide’ of the 21st century. It begins by outlining the EU’s record in Darfur and the North–South Peace Process. Drawing upon 25 interviews and Hill’s ‘capabilities–expectations model’, it then questions whether the EU’s ‘capabilities’ (resources, instruments, unity) were ‘fit for purpose’ in Sudan’s hostile target setting. It concludes by identifying settings that have been more propitious for a conflict-related management function and by suggesting that the EU should better manage expectations about future security roles.     

简析泰国皇家学术院在泰国标准语发展中的作用

泰语是泰国的标准语,泰国皇家学术院作为泰国在语言规划和语言政策方面最具权威性的官方研究机构,对泰语的发展起了重要作用,其地位相当于法国的法兰西学院和西班牙的塞万提斯学院。本文主要从泰语标准的规范、新词汇的认定、泰语的宣传和保护以及对国家语言政策的制定提供依据等方面简要分析泰国皇家学术院对泰语的发展所起的作用。