俄日两国“北方四岛”领土纠纷问题的博弈分析

博弈论和国家利益等相关理论对于研究俄日两国"北方四岛"领土纠纷问题,有较强的解释力。日本不会放弃对"北方四岛"的索要,而俄罗斯也不会轻易归还或部分归还"北方四岛",甚至必要时会加强在"北方四岛"乃至远东地区的军力部署。俄日两国在资本和自然资源方面分别具有不同的比较优势,在博弈模型的纳什均衡中:俄罗斯选择"据守",日本选择"索要,合作"。"北方四岛"问题将会变得长期化。该领土问题的解决,将取决于未来国际政治经济形势,取决于俄日两国彼此之间权力的消长,取决于两国之间的新的博弈均衡。     

Death by a Thousand Grants? The Challenge of Grant Funding Reliance for Local Government Councils in the Northern Territory of Australia

In July 2008, the local government sector in the Northern Territory of Australia underwent wide-sweeping reforms whereby 53 councils, most of which were located in remote Indigenous communities, were amalgamated into eight regional shires. The dominant justifications for these reforms focused on internal ‘deficit’ views about the community council sector, including lack of competent and ethical staff, managerial workforce instability, inefficient use of resources, and poor oversight as the primary causes of chronic underperformance and dysfunction. This paper identifies and discusses the under-scrutinised role of grants revenue dependency and volatility in the demise of remote small councils in the Northern Territory. We analyse financial data to demonstrate the extreme volatility in year-on-year grants funding. With their high dependency on grants revenue, such volatility and unpredictability resulted in councils being hamstrung in their ability to strategically plan and ensure stability in service delivery, infrastructure management and employment provision. We argue that these fiscal dynamics, fuelled by hierarchical intergovernmental relations, contributed significantly to dysfunction in the sector, as well as mutually reinforcing pre-existing structural and endogenous weaknesses. This argument runs against the common conceptualisation of the sector as requiring of externally imposed structural reform. We conclude by suggesting that there are factors additional to scale that need to be incorporated into analysis of the effects of amalgamation policies on remote councils.     

The Politics of Local Government Reform in Northern Ireland

A major review of public administration in Northern Ireland has resulted in proposals for radical reforms in health, education and local government services. Although originating from the devolved government of 1999, intermittent suspensions resulted in Direct Rule Ministers taking over responsibility for the review. This article traces the influence of a sizeable body of research evidence on the outcomes of the review, specifically controversial reforms to local government, and the significant influence attached to macro political factors in reaching key public policy decisions. It also highlights the asymmetry in power relations between Stormont and local government and how devolution has simply compounded regional centralism in Northern Ireland.     

Protracted Refugee Situations: Parallel Health Systems and Planning for the Integration of Services

The international community typically responds to refugee situationsby establishing ‘care and maintenance’ programmesspecifically for refugees. Limited resources may also be directedto hosting communities, but donors often channel the bulk offunding through UNHCR and its implementing partner NGOs, whoin turn create service delivery structures that are operatedin parallel to local structures. Although there may be causefor this approach in a short-term emergency phase, particularlyif the host country systems are very weak, this eventually becomesfinancially problematic if refugees continue to live in exilefor years at a time. In the short term, it can also engenderan inequitable and inefficient use of scarce resources. Thispaper traces the evolution and impact of implementing refugeehealth services in parallel to local systems using observationsfrom Uganda, and offers Quality Design as a model for planningthe local integration of services.     

战后东南亚"南强北弱"经济格局成因分析

二战后,东南亚诸国都制定经济发展战略,重建国民经济体系。但是,到20世纪80年代末90年代初期,北方印支三国及缅甸的经济发展水平远远落后于南方各国,东南亚地区形成了“南强北弱”的经济格局。究其成因,主要外因有:西方殖民主义者殖民统治方式的不同对东南亚区域内经济发展的不平衡起了加剧作用,美苏在东南亚的“冷战”及相关战争使印支三国失去相对和平的经济恢复环境;内因则是南北方国家经济发展体制与发展战略方面存在差距。     

Private tax collection—remnant of the past or a way forward? Evidence from rural Uganda

This article examines the growing role and impacts of private tax collection under fiscal decentralisation in Uganda. Based on evidence from six rural councils, three aspects of privatised tax collection are examined: (i) the impact on the nature of fiscal corruption; (ii) the problem of overzealous collection; and (iii) the challenge of assessing revenue potentials. While possibly meeting short‐term demands for local revenue growth and stability, the present form of private tax collection appears to transform the nature of fiscal corruption by reducing corruption at collection point and transferring the problem into the district administration. Moreover, while the charge of overzealousness permeates historical and theoretical work on privatised tax collection, the Ugandan experience casts doubt on its general validity. Instead, perverse distributional effects are the most likely cause of deteriorating state‐citizen relations in rural Uganda. Finally, the article considers the merit of the prediction of private collection as a preferred contractual choice for certain indirect taxes, suggesting that problems of asymmetric information in assessing the revenue yields of most rural markets are exaggerated. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Decentralisation and poverty: conceptual framework and application to Uganda

In order to shed further light on the discussion about decentralisation‐poverty linkages in developing countries, this article introduces a conceptual framework for the relationship between decentralisation and poverty. The framework takes the form of an optimal scenario and indicates potential ways for an impact of decentralisation on poverty. Three different but interrelated channels are identified. Decentralisation is considered to affect poverty through providing opportunities for previously excluded people to participate in public decision‐making, through increasing efficiency in the provision of local public services due to an informational advantage of local governments over the central government and through granting autonomy to geographically separable conflict groups and entitling local bodies to resolve local‐level conflicts. Based on the experience with decentralisation in Uganda, it is shown that these channels are often not fully realised in practice. Different reasons are singled out for the Ugandan case, among them low levels of information about local government affairs, limited human capital and financial resources, restricted local autonomy, corruption and patronage, high administrative costs related with decentralisation and low downward accountability. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Excursions Through Emptiness: Interwar Travel Writing on Northern Australia

During the interwar years, Australians grew increasingly anxious about their sparsely populated north. They had moral qualms about leaving land idle; they felt uneasy about international criticism of their lacklustre efforts in the tropics; they feared a stronger, more resolute nation might rob them of their under-utilised heritage. While anxieties intensified, there was an efflorescence of travel writing on northern Australia, as cars and aeroplanes made this part of the continent a little more accessible. Like other travel writers, those on northern Australia in the interwar years did not confine their narratives to what they did and what they saw. They commented on the burning questions of the day: on what the future of the north might hold and whether Australia’s northern lands could sustain a prolific white population. This article explores a range of representations of northern Australia in the travel literature published between the two world wars, with particular attention to the varied assessments of Australia’s tropical environments and the racial misgivings that disconcerted attempts to envisage an all-white north.     

Northern Ireland's Abortion Law: The Morality of Silence and the Censure of Agency

This article explores the context within which abortion law and discourse in Northern Ireland must be situated and understood, relying in part on post-modern insights into the wider and long-term implications of feminists engaging law and by examining the strategies employed in Northern Ireland around the issue of abortion. In 2001,the Family Planning Association (Northern Ireland) took legal action to force the devolved government to defend at a procedural level the unequal and uncertain form of common law abortion regulation for Northern Ireland. The authors examine the strategy of this review as well as the response of the High Court, suggesting that while it may begin to challenge the legitimacy of abortion law, feminists and pro-choice advocates must prepare for challenges beyond that, the greatest being the cultural challenge. The courts, legislators and other public and political institutions(including the Northern Ireland Human Rights Commission and the Northern Ireland Women's Coalition) consistently explain the law's lack of provision for women with reference to the `pro-life' majority views of Northern Irish people. The authors question the legitimacy of this claim in a cultural climate of intimidation against the expression of alternative views. Women will continue to be marginalised and devalued in this debate if the silencing of the pro-choice community and bodies responsible for protecting human rights is not redressed. A case is therefore made for a reconceptualisation of the abortion debate from the perspective of women's agency, which, alongside litigation and other strategies, is necessary to overcome the cultural censure that currently prevents meaningful dialogue. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.