THE IMPACT OF BRITISH COUNTERTERRORIST STRATEGIES ON POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN NORTHERN IRELAND: COMPARING DETERRENCE AND BACKLASH MODELS*

Since philosophers Beccaria and Bentham, criminologists have been concerned with predicting how governmental attempts to maintain lawful behavior affect subsequent rates of criminal violence. In this article, we build on prior research to argue that governmental responses to a specific form of criminal violence—terrorism—may produce both a positive deterrence effect (i.e., reducing future incidence of prohibited behavior) and a negative backlash effect (i.e., increasing future incidence of prohibited behavior). Deterrence‐based models have long dominated both criminal justice and counterterrorist policies on responding to violence. The models maintain that an individual's prohibited behavior can be altered by the threat and imposition of punishment. Backlash models are more theoretically scattered but receive mixed support from several sources, which include research on counterterrorism; the criminology literature on labeling, legitimacy, and defiance; and the psychological literature on social power and decision making. In this article, we identify six major British strategies aimed at reducing political violence in Northern Ireland from 1969 to 1992 and then use a Cox proportional hazard model to estimate the impact of these interventions on the risk of new attacks. In general, we find the strongest support for backlash models. The only support for deterrence models was a military surge called Operation Motorman, which was followed by significant declines in the risk of new attacks. The results underscore the importance of considering the possibility that antiterrorist interventions might both increase and decrease subsequent violence.     

Digital dilemmas: the unintended consequences of election technology

Digital technologies are increasingly used in elections around the world. Where the resources and capacity of the state are limited, some have argued that such technologies make it possible to rapidly “leapfrog” to cleaner and more credible elections. This article argues that the growing use of these technologies has been driven by the fetishization of technology rather than by rigorous assessment of their effectiveness; that they may create significant opportunities for corruption that (among other things) vitiate their potential impact; and that they carry significant opportunity costs. Indeed, precisely because new technology tends to deflect attention away from more “traditional” strategies, the failure of digital checks and balances often renders an electoral process even more vulnerable to rigging than it was before. These observations are not intended as a manifesto against the digitization of elections; apart from anything else, we argue that the drivers of the adoption of these new methods are too powerful to resist. But the analysis draws attention to the importance of more careful assessments of the problems, as well as the benefits, of such technologies – and to the need for more careful planning in their deployment.     

How ‘terrorism’ does not end: the case of the Official Irish Republican Army

This paper is the first critical analysis of terrorism disengagement by the Official Irish Republican Army (OIRA). This process was conducted in instalments over nearly three decades. It has not been theoretically assessed as far as studies on ‘how terrorism ends’ are concerned, and it does not fit into any existing models of terrorism disengagement. The end of terrorism in relation to the OIRA is not only the story of a terrorist organisation ending its armed activities, but also a case study of terrorism disengagement with important policy implications for decision-makers faced with the threat of terrorism.     

Coastal Tourism in a Context of Neoliberal Development: Social Change in Mancora,Peru

The case of Mancora, Northern Peru, illustrates a process of neoliberalisation through which conceptions of place, local identities and the recent history of the place have been reformulated due to the rapid expansion of global tourism. In this former fishing village, tourism development altered local conceptions of place, allowing the emergence of contrasting projects for converting it into a beach resort. This process brought about a context governed by land conflicts and tension between local authorities, where local inhabitants reshaped their identities and the recent history of the place in order to gain or maintain ownership over valuable natural resources.     

Towards a Northern Ireland Bill of Rights

The political settlement resulting from the Belfast Agreement recognisedthe fundamental importance of the issue of rights to a stable peace inNorthern Ireland. Indeed, the agreement provided for a Human RightsCommission, one of whose tasks is the drafting of a Bill of Rights thatwill reflect the political reality of the province. This paper arguesthat the proposed document will have to reflect an understanding ofrights and their protection resulting from the particular history ofNorthern Ireland. This specific understanding of rights appeared firstin the Anglo-Irish Agreement and has been gradually developed andconsolidated in the political agreements since. The planned NorthernIreland Bill of Rights will have to reflect this rights thinking. Thearticle also chronicles the recent work of the Northern Ireland HumanRights Commission in drafting the Bill of Rights to be presented to theSecretary of State for Northern Ireland in February 2002. Thereciprocal, if belated, moves in the Republic to set up its own humanrights commission will also be addressed as part of the process to drawup a Charter of Rights for the whole people of Ireland.     

Investigators and Prosecutors or, Desperately Seeking Scotland: Re-formulation of the 'Philips Principle'

Prosecution in England and Wales, traditionally private, was captured by the 'new police', creating an 'English tradition' unlike those of the rest of the United Kingdom. To overcome consequent problems, the Royal Commission on Criminal Procedure recommended the 'Philips principle', whereby investigator and prosecutor were separate, but co-ordinate, on which basis the Crown Prosecution Service was set up. However, the principle was in fact compromised by the 'English tradition', most obviously by permitting continued police prosecution. Moreover, the Serious Fraud Office, set up shortly thereafter, contradicted the principle. Yet, HM Customs and Excise addressed its serious problems by applying the principle. The CPS itself encountered difficulties flowing from the compromises. Reports (Runciman, Narey, Glidewell) recommended various devices, straining the principle, until the Auld Report recognised that reformulation was necessary, along the lines adopted elsewhere in the United Kingdom, that is, by recognising that there should be investigator subordination to prosecutor.     

Don't Mention the War: The Court of Appeal,the Criminal Cases Review Commission and Dealing with the Past in Northern Ireland

Despite the vast transitional justice scholarship relating to prisoner release, amnesties and prosecutions when conflicts end, there is a significant gap in practice and academic literature regarding wrongful convictions. Uniquely amongst post‐conflict societies, Northern Ireland has a body for investigating miscarriages of justice, albeit one designed for ‘ordinary’ appeals. In the absence of a formal truth‐recovery process, criminal appeals are becoming a proxy for addressing the role of the state during ‘The Troubles,’ as well as remedying individual injustices. This article examines the approach of the Northern Ireland Court of Appeal during the conflict. It charts the developments in its decision‐making following the cease‐fires and the establishment of the Criminal Cases Review Commission. It concludes that the current system is unsatisfactory as it ignores the effects of the conflict on the appeal process and offers no insights into the role of the Court during the conflict. Alternative models are suggested.     

East African Economic Development Over the Next Twenty Years: Some Forecasts About Qualitative Changes

Combining social movement approaches to resource mobilization and collective identity, this article investigates the role of external material resources in shaping the direction of collective action against HIV/AIDS within the Kamwokya Christian Caring Community (KCCC), a Catholic community-based initiative in Kampala. From its origins in the late 1980s as a community of Christians providing “holistic care” to people living with HIV/AIDS, the KCCC has in the wake of increasing external funding been transformed into a professional development non-governmental organization (NGO). In the process, the ideals of holistic care have gradually been overshadowed by neo-liberal development rationalities and bio-political concerns. The article therefore argues that successfully mobilizing donor funding can have unintended consequences for the nature of religious collective action against HIV/AIDS.     

Why Does Zimbabwe Export Manufactures and Uganda Not? Econometrics Meets History

Uganda and Zimbabwe are predicted on the basis of their human and natural resources, to have similar shares of manufactures in their exports However, Uganda falls a long way short of the predicted share, while Zimbabwe greatly exceeds it. Uganda's manufactured export share is unusually small mainly because of high transport costs, due to its distance from the sea and inadequate infrastructure. Zimbabwe's manufactured export share is unusually big mainly because its comparative advantage in manufacturing was enhanced by the know-how brought in by European settlers and a long-term policy of promoting the sector.     

The politics of post-conflict space: the mysterious case of missing graffiti in ‘post-troubles’ Northern Ireland

Why is there so little graffiti in Northern Ireland compared to cities in North America and Europe – including Great Britain, to which it is constitutionally connected, and Ireland, with which it is geographically connected? This question is particularly perplexing given the highly developed political mural tradition on both sides of the sectarian divide in the North, and the almost 15 years that have passed since the signing of the Peace Agreement ending some three decades of militarized conflict. This paper explores the connections between the absence of graffiti, and the street-level structures and processes of reconciliation or conflict – with a specific focus on the geopolitics of paramilitary control within communities throughout Northern Ireland. The contributions of the paper are three-fold: (1) it highlights the importance of graffiti as a (usually neglected) lens for assessing the degree to which the expected benefits of a peace agreement are experienced at the street level; (2) it addresses the methodological challenge of how to examine something that is not there (specifically, it studies the absence of graffiti in Northern Ireland by comparing it to the logic, mechanics and meanings of graffiti elsewhere); and (3) it questions the well-marketed representation of Northern Ireland as a unqualified case of successful post-agreement peace.