反事实分析与公共政策制定——以“自行车难题”为例

本文尝试将反事实分析法引入公共政策制定,用于预先评估某项公共政策可能引发的预期效果和非意愿后果。选取城市治理中的"自行车难题"为案例,探讨反事实分析法在公共政策制定过程中的适用范围、应用方法和分析过程。现有研究认为,惩罚成本过低是导致"自行车难题"的主因,因而提高惩罚的治理政策就能解决"自行车难题"。本文采用犯罪经济学的分析框架,通过反事实分析,系统地考察惩罚严厉的治理政策的社会效果,得出与之相反的结论:惩罚严厉的治理政策仅考虑了单一的盗窃成本与收益,但实际上犯罪者的行为选择受各种社会条件制约,严厉的惩罚政策不但不能解决治理问题,并有可能导致社会治安恶化的非意愿后果。单一政策目标和复杂社会系统之间的矛盾是中国公共治理中广泛存在的问题,而在政策制定中引入反事实分析则是避免这一困境的有效途径。     

From the outside lane: issues of ‘race’ in South African athletics in the twentieth century

In her introductory essay to this special issue on refugees and xeno­phobia--in which the articles focus primarily on asylum-seekers,2 mostly in the United Kingdom, but also in France and Ireland--guest editor Liza Schuster draws on the work of the contributors and on her own research in Britain, France, Germany and Italy to address the treatment of asylum-seekers by European states. European liberal democracies share a common commitment to granting asylum to those in need of protection, a commitment made legally binding by signing the 1951 Geneva Convention relating to the Status of Refugees. They also share a commitment to principles of equality and non-discrimination. However, in recent years European states have embraced practices that permit discrimination against and unequal treatment of asylum-seekers, and recent British government proposals threaten the 1951 Convention itself. Schuster interrogates some of the underlying assumptions of asylum policies in the United Kingdom in particular, but also with reference to other European states, arguing that common-sense assertions of the ‘need for control’, which underlie the differential treatment of asylum-seekers in particular, are expressions of a racism at the heart of European states. She further argues that, at the border, racism intersects in a complex and shifting way with class and gender, creating a hierarchy of the excluded. Following a discussion of racism and these other modalities of exclusion, Schuster examines practices through which this racism is articulated.     

U.S. Tobacco Control: Public Health,Political Economy,or Morality Policy?

Tobacco control policy usually has been framed in terms of public health and political economy, but it also has been called a morality issue. Through a systematic historical analysis, this paper examines dimensions of morality policy and evaluates tobacco control in the United States for its fit with those characteristics. Moral concerns have been a part of tobacco control policy at certain times, first in the early twentieth century, and, more recently, since the mid‐1980s with the rise of “denormalization” of tobacco as a goal of some antitobacco organizations. Drawing from recent studies of other “morality” policy issues, it argues that tobacco control is a “blended” issue, one which can take on different dimensions depending on successful interest group framing. The adoption of Healthy Public Policy as a governmental goal has coincided with a movement toward a “secular morality” in the political culture, facilitating a broader appeal to the public.     

农村土地流转政策的执行偏差——对小岗村的实证分析

农村土地承包经营权的流转是完善我国农村工作非常重大的现实问题,但政策执行过程中容易产生偏差。有哪些偏差,其原因何在?街道层官僚理论为分析中国农村土地承包经营权流转的政策执行提供了一个全新的理论视角。以中国改革第一村——小岗村为研究对象,以街道层官僚理论为视角,通过对小岗村的农村土地流转政策执行情况及偏差原因进行实证分析。研究发现,处于公共政策执行末梢环节的街道层官僚在资源稀缺和公共服务弹性需求的夹缝之中,因其特殊的身份、地位和工作性质而持有相当大的政策制定能力,导致公共利益权威分配过程中产生偏差;分析了形成该问题的三个具体原因,对提高我国农村土地流转政策执行的质量具有一定的借鉴意义。     

Policy Transfer Over Time: A Case of Growing Complexity

The article indicates that policy transfer has played an important role in the development of policy and legislation in Australia. Indeed, much of what is regarded as Australian policy is borrowed, usually in small part, but sometimes in its entirety, from elsewhere. One of the implications of this view is that Australian policy making processes are often, at least in part, dynamic, policy processes that draw upon a number of sources, both domestic and international. The focus of this article is upon the sources of transfer in the Australian context, both domestic and international, and how the sources drawn upon by Australian state and federal governments have changed over time. The article also indicates that on the evidence available the Australian experience with transfer can be divided into a number of phases. The first, from European colonisation to approximately the middle of the nineteenth century, the second from roughly the middle of the nineteenth century to federation at the beginning of the twentieth century, the third from the establishment of the Australian federation in 1901, to the Second World War, and the fourth phase, from the Second World War to the present.     

Local climate governance and policy innovation in China: a case study of a piloting emission trading scheme in Guangdong province

This paper investigates how piloting programmes in China can promote local policy innovations. By using one of the piloting emission trading schemes (ETS) in Guangdong province as a case study, it is argued that the main features of the piloting experiments, particularly in the climate change domain, are largely different from previous local marketization experiments that dominate the reform period of China. Whereas previous experiments are often characterized as bottom-up or indigenous initiatives with strong patronage relations to the pro-reform politicians at central level, the current piloting programmes are often crafted in a top-down fashion that is often misaligned with local market or corporate interests. Hence, local policy innovations are designed, developed and brokered by the local state officers, in order to bridge this central–local interest gap. As a result, successful implementation of these policy innovations largely depends on local political traditions, bureaucratic culture and perceptions of distinctive development needs.     

民进党“学运世代”两岸政策主张的特点及其影响

“学运世代”作为一个整体,其两岸政策主张尚未形成共识,但在坚持“台独”的同时,却表现出与“台独教义”的鲜明区隔及政策的开放性、务实性。“学运世代”在民进党大陆政策的凋整与转型过程中扮演了重要的推手角色。而陈水扁执政8年来,“学运世代”的政途发展备受“深绿”路线连累。在自身的生存危机压力下,“学运世代”必将重新思考自己的定位与出路。     

历代王朝治瑶赋役政策的社会历史分析

历代王朝治理瑶民的赋役政策基本上是一脉相承的 ,大致为一种减免赋役负担的优惠政策 ,且随着时间的推移逐步走向系统与完备 ,但其中也杂有曲折和反复。这种演变正是民族关系发展的晴雨表和外在表现 ,其背后有着深刻的社会历史根源。概括起来 ,其发生与演变是以下四个方面的因素共同作用的结果 :其一 ,王朝的处境 ;其二、瑶民的处境 ;其三、双边往来 ,其四、政治博弈。反观历史上的治瑶赋役制度等经济政策 ,可以为我国更好地实施民族区域自治提供有益的借鉴。     

缅甸外交政策的新调整:从对华友好到大国平衡外交

1988年政变上台的缅甸新军人政权,遭到西方国家的制裁,不得不努力发展与中国的关系,以稳定国内局势。在统治得到巩固后,缅甸新军人政权开始奉行大国平衡的外交政策,即在继续发展对华关系的同时,努力改善与东盟、印度和日本的关系。本文还分析了缅甸奉行大国平衡外交政策的原因:内因是缅甸国内的民族主义情绪不断上升,外因是区域内外各有关国家对中国在缅甸及周边地区影响不断扩大存在恐惧心理。     

他信政府草根政策的成绩与问题

他信政府的草根政策既取得了明显的成就,但也出现了一些问题。本文着重分析了其中的主要四项措施实施的情况,这四项主要措施是乡村/社区基金计划、暂缓农民还债计划和“一乡一产品计划”、“30铢治百病”全面健康保健计划。