The Structure and Stability of Externalizing and Internalizing Problem Behavior During Early Adolescence

The first aim of this study was to examine the structure of externalizing and internalizing problem behavior during early adolescence. Our second aim was to determine the stability of these problems for boys and for girls over time. A total of 650, 13–14-year-olds filled out (an expanded version of) the Youth Self-Report [YSR; Manual for the Youth Self-Report and 1991 Profile. Department of Psychiatry, University of Vermont, Burlington] 2 times with a 1-year interval. By using confirmatory factor analyses (CFA) to test a series of competing models, a hierarchical model provided the best representation of the structure of problem behavior at both Time 1 and Time 2: externalizing and internalizing problem behavior represent distinct aspects but the model also demonstrates the existence of comorbidity at a higher level. This model appeared to be stable over time for both boys and girls. The relative stability of problem behavior was found to be high for boys and girls. Absolute stability for both externalizing and internalizing problems appeared to be higher for boys scoring in the lower range of problem behavior. Senior Researcher, Utrecht University, The Netherlands. Received PhD in social sciences, University of Amsterdam. Major research interests include problem behavior, family relations, and peer relations during adolescence. Full Professor, Utrecht University, The Netherlands. Received PhD in social sciences: child and family studies, from University of Nijmegen. Major research interests include adolescent social development, problem behavior, and family relations during adolescence. Assistant Professor, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Received PhD in psychology, University of Amsterdam. Major research interests include family influence on childhood illness and problem behavior.     

“重要战略机遇期“解读

"重要战略机遇期"概念的提出,体现了第三代领导集体敏锐的政治嗅觉、高超的战略判断力、超人的政治胆识、杰出的领导艺术和坚定的政治决心,是他们面对复杂的国际大势,乘势、权变、借力、顺应规律的智慧结晶.其基本依据是对未来20年国内形势的正确把握和国际形势的科学判断,"重要战略机遇期"到来的转折点则与"9·11"时间密切相连.     

我国警检关系完善新探

我国以"分工负责、互相配合、互相制约"为原则的警检关系在司法实践中暴露出一些问题。对此,学者们提出了见仁见智的解决方案。但问题的彻底解决必须在新的思路下进行,即设立看守警察职司侦查活动中的同步监督;设立证据规格,统一警检人员的认识。     

刑法因果关系研究

因果关系是指行为与结果之间决定与被决定、引起与被引起之间的关系。在刑法中,将某一结果归咎于某人的时候,往往需要查明其行为与结果之间是否存在刑法上的因果关系。因此,因果关系在定罪中具有重要意义。但并不意味着可以过分夸大因果关系在犯罪构成中的地位。此外,要正确认识刑法中的因果关系,应从事实上的因果关系与法律上的因果关系两方面进行考察,而不应纠缠在必然性与偶然性这样一些哲学问题上。     

改革是社会主义中国的强国之路——邓小平改革理论探析

改革是邓小平理论最重要的内容,是决定当代中国命运的历史性决策,是新时期我国最鲜明的特征。本文系统探讨分析了邓小平关于我国社会主义改革的必然性、迫切性,改革的对象、目标和性质,以及改革同发展与稳定的关系。这对于深入学习邓小平理论,深化我国改革具有重要的现实意义。     

Assessing Stability and Change in Criminal Offending: A Comparison of Random Effects, Semiparametric, and Fixed Effects Modeling Strategies

An important theoretical problem for criminologists is an explanation forthe robust positive correlation between prior and future criminaloffending. Nagin and Paternoster (1991) have suggested that the correlationcould be due to time-stable population differences in the underlyingproneness to commit crimes (population heterogeneity) and/or thecriminogenic effect that crime has on social bonds, conventionalattachments, and the like (state dependence). Because of data andmeasurement limitations, the disentangling of population heterogeneityand state dependence requires that researchers control for unmeasuredpersistent heterogeneity. Frequently, random effects probit models havebeen employed, which, while user-friendly, make a strong parametricassumption that the unobserved heterogeneity in the population follows anormal distribution. Although semiparametric alternatives to the randomeffects probit model have recently appeared in the literature to avoid thisproblem, in this paper we return to reconsider the fully parametric model. Viasimulation evidence, we first show that the random effects probit modelproduces biased estimates as the departure of heterogeneity from normalitybecomes more substantial. Using the 1958 Philadelphia cohort data, we thencompare the results from a random effects probit model with a semiparametricprobit model and a fixed effects logit model that makes no assumptions aboutthe distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. We found that with this dataset all three models converged on the same substantive result—evenafter controlling for unobserved persistent heterogeneity, with models thattreat the unobserved heterogeneity very differently, prior conduct had apronounced effect on subsequent offending. These results are inconsistentwith a model that attributes all of the positive correlation between priorand future offending to differences in criminal propensity. Sinceresearchers will often be completely blind with respect to the tenabilityof the normality assumption, we conclude that different estimationstrategies should be brought to bear on the data.     

试论条理法在调整特别权力关系中的作用———以公立高校管理行为争议解决机制为例

在大陆法系长期扮演重要角色的特别权力关系已不断变异和逐渐式微,应当积极探索和发展更符合行政法制实践要求的行政法律关系理论和行政法规范体系.实践证明,仅用一般法规范调整特别权力关系有许多局限和无力感,重新认识条理法已成为行政法制建设的新课题,不仅运用一般法规范而且兼用条理法来调整特别权力关系就体现出特殊优势并具有特殊功用.公立高校管理行为关系尚属具有特殊性的一类特别权力关系,许多典型事例表明公立高校管理行为争议解决具有复杂性和特殊困难.积极运用条理法有助于系统和妥善地解决公立高校管理行为争议,有助于全面推进依法行政和推动公立高校和谐发展.     

侵权法基本问题的经济学反思：比较的视角

损害具有相互性,损害并一定意味着必然有救济。对于＂受害者＂的救济应遵循财富最大化原则。侵权因果关系的认定虽然复杂,但是,不能因此而放弃对于因果关系分析,恰当的做法是由立法机关和司法机关对于因果关系类型化指引法官裁判。在风险增加的社会,传统归责原则凸显其局限性,社会财富最大化原则要求风险分担的社会化。     

保安处分制度理论研究六十年

建国六十年来的保安处分制度研究涉及三个方面的内容，即保安处分的基本理论、保安处分的适用问题和当代中国的保安处分制度。基本理论的内容集中在保安处分的原则、保安处分与刑罚的关系、保安处分的适用（条件、宣告和执行）等问题上。其中，又以保安处分与刑罚关系的一元论与二元论之争影响最大。     

关于中国警察教育训练的几点新思考——联合国军即美国2011“利比亚战法”的启示

美国2011“利比亚战法”在推进外战与内战的转型过程中,显示了对战略推进、策略分层与作战实施等的超强宏观把握与微观控制能力,警察因被裹胁“随军”并成为战争主体之一而不能游离于战争之外,因此美国的“利比亚战法”应是一道特殊的攻关“动员令”,从战略高度、从宏观层次、从具体实践、从理论发展出发,深入探讨警察这支军事之外的特殊的武装力量,怎样在维护社会稳定、国家稳定和政权稳定中以及在国际斗争的舞台上发挥更大更积极的功能与作用,不仅是时代摆在广大警察教育训练工作者面前的一道课题,也是世界形势和国际斗争发展的客观需要.