Ukraine’s journey to Europe: strategic macronarrative and conceptual metaphors

ABSTRACT

Informed by strategic narrative theorisation and cognitive metaphor theory refined and expanded, this paper analyses textual and pictorial instantiations of cognitive metaphors used to describe and explain the trajectory of Ukraine’s development and form a particular narrative of this movement. Both narrative and cognitive metaphor are considered as tools for navigating experience and serving to construe its subjective images. The study focuses on the ways these tools were used by Ukrainian print media (eight influential outlets) in 2016. The outcomes demonstrate how a coherent strategic macronarrative of Ukraine’s course of development emerges from metaphoric images that survive semiotic mode changes, alternating between textual and pictorial. The macronarrative is that of Ukraine on a hero’s journey towards the European Union – a journey with political and economic implications for both Ukraine and the EU.     

从“分体”到“分层”：中国特色贿赂犯罪罪名体系的历史嬗变与时代跨越

贿赂犯罪罪名体系与治理结构的构建，是“中国式”腐败治理理念、智慧、资源与立法技术的结晶。中国特色罪名体系的发展，始终围绕扩张犯罪主体类型而展开，形成了“分体式”发展模式，却忽视了对行为类型的重新识别、拓展以及规制对象的有效性等问题。在“分体式”罪名体系中，贿赂犯罪的治理结构以对价关系为基础设定罪名结构；以结果本位为基础设定评价基准；以差异化治理策略为基础设定配刑原则。国家治理现代化的全面推进，对罪名体系建设原理的代际更新提出了全新要求：在体系建构基础上，应当实现由单一“分体式”立法向“分体+分层”立法的转型，引入行为类型的立法导向；在要件设定基础上，实现从以对价关系为中心向以公权伦理为基础转向的完善；在犯罪治理结构上，实现从“差异式”治理走向“全链条式”“同一性”治理的更新。     

Strategic rebels: a spatial econometric approach to rebel fighting durations in civil wars

ABSTRACT

Recent research on multi-actor civil wars highlights that rebel organizations condition their conflict behavior on that of other rebel organizations, with competition and free-riding constituting the core theoretical mechanisms. We provide a new actor-centric approach to explicitly model strategic interdependence in multi-actor civil wars. We argue that rebel organizations have incentives to remain mobilized until the end of a conflict to maintain their power to negotiate, power to spoil, power to enforce, and power to protect. This induces strategic complements that dominate duration dynamics in multi-actor conflicts. Based on a network game-theoretic model, we derive a spatial econometric framework that allows for a direct test of strategic interdependence. We find that the estimated duration interdependence is positive but partially offset in secessionist conflicts where the public goods nature of the incompatibility also induces strategic substitution effects.     

Construction Procurement and State Government Strategy: Aligned or Disconnected?

Australian state governments are engaging in strategic planning processes and publishing departmental and/or overall state strategic plans. One means of achieving the goals outlined in these strategic plans is via public procurement processes. Investments in construction projects by governments are strategic in nature and made to create infrastructure, which enables the provision of public services. This article investigates the contribution that construction procurement across the five Australian state governments who expend the most money on infrastructure makes towards the achievement of government strategy. The research draws on interviews with experienced project managers to assess whether public sector construction procurement is aligned or disconnected with publically stated government strategies.     

二战后初期日本民间掳日劳工遗骨送还运动

战后初期,日本民间14个团体组成的中国战俘殉难者追悼执行委员会为督促日本政府尽快解决掳日劳工遗骨送还问题,积极开展劳工遗骨调查、追悼活动,并与政府进行交涉,促成了一批劳工遗骨的归国。日本政府相对于民间团体积极解决问题的态度,则呈现出"不承认""不作为""与政府无关"的敷衍态度。日本民间和平团体开展的掳日劳工遗骨送还运动推进了中日邦交正常化的进程。正是因为战后初期特殊的国际局势与中日关系,致使掳日劳工遗骨归还问题逐步演变为战争遗留问题。     

The More Fragmented the Better?—The Impact of Armed Forces Structure on Defection during Nonviolent Popular Uprisings

Authoritarian regimes frequently employ fragmentation to safeguard themselves against coups and reduce the power of the military apparatus. This article investigates the impact of structural coup-proofing in the setting of a nonviolent popular uprising that threatens the regime and its survival. It is argued that in such settings fragmentation can have unintentional consequences with respect to the question whether the army fulfills orders of repression or defects. If the security apparatus is highly divided, some armed organizations will seize the opportunity to defect and side with the protesters because the efficiency of counterbalancing decreases if more effective armed organizations are involved. This can be mainly explained through collective action problems that the security apparatus faces in such a setting. This article compiles data of nonviolent uprisings from 1975 to 2006 and data on armed forces structure for conducting a multivariate probit regression on the probability of defection. The findings indeed show a U-shaped relationship between armed forces fragmentation and the likelihood of defection during nonviolent mass uprisings. While security apparatuses with around two effective armed organizations display only a low probability of defection, minimally and highly fragmented forces indicate higher chances of defection from the ruling regime.     

Interview with Nathalie Tocci on the Global Strategy for the European Union’s Foreign and Security Policy

The Global Strategy for the European Union’s Foreign And Security Policy, “Shared Vision, Common Action: A Stronger Europe”, presented at the European Council on 24 June 2016 by Federica Mogherini, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice President of the Commission, was drafted by Nathalie Tocci, Deputy Director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) and co-editor of The International Spectator. 

Given the importance of the document, we asked Nathalie for an interview and 18 foreign policy experts from around the world to comment on it.     

Assessing Risk of Placement Instability to Aid Foster Care Placement Decision Making

Placement stability is of critical importance to the well-being of children in foster care and has an impact on other key outcomes. Placement decision-making that matches children with placement resources is often cited as a practice that impacts placement stability, but little research exists to inform this practice. The focus of this research is on a child assessment tool that was developed to determine the appropriate level of care, which serves as one component of a web-based matching system that pulls together child and placement information used to inform the placement decision. The research examines the relationship between the child assessment subscale domains and placement stability for first and subsequent placement decisions and evaluates the stability of placements made in and outside of the indicated level of care.     

在统一和独立之间——民事权利类型与诉的类型关系之我见

民事权利类型与诉的类型之间有着无法割裂的关系,对诉的类型影响最大的为根据权利的作用形式或功能对民事权利的分类,据此可把民事权利分为支配权、抗辩权、请求权与形成权。诉的最基本的三种类型是给付之诉、确认之诉、形成之诉。四种民事权利与诉的类型并非是一一对应关系,而是介于统一与独立之间的关系。     

从蒲安臣和《蒲安臣条约》看晚清中美关系

蒲安臣是中国历史上第一位外交使节,由于他本身是美国人这一特殊身份使得他在中美关系史上具有重要地位。在他主导下签订的《蒲安臣条约》是近代中国第一个以平等身份签订的条约。从蒲安臣的经历以及《蒲安臣条约》看出：晚清美国的对华政策往往是理想主义与现实主义交融的产物,而清政府则希望利用美国相对于其他列强对中国的善意达到“以夷制夷”的目的。《蒲安臣条约》在劳工、留学等方面对日后的中美关系产生了重要影响。