An analysis of budget compliance measurement in South African local government best‐practice financial management technical assistance programs, 2001—2003

South Africa's local government financial management best‐practice technical assistance program (known as MFMTAP) was to reform municipal financial management; achieve credible, realistic budgets and prevent financial failure. We consider whether a budget compliance procedure, developed by National Treasury (NT) to measure funding requirements compliance with the Municipal Finance Management Act (MFMA) focusing on ‘realistic’ revenue budgeting, improves our understanding of technical assistance effectiveness. We assess a metropolitan municipality's compliance before, during and after advisory assistance. The compliance procedure was robust. Potential exists for wider application to assess best‐practice technical assistance (BPTA) program financial reform effectiveness. The findings from this single, important sample suggest that MFMA funding requirements are not being sustained 4 years after MFMTAP commencement, attributable to either BPTA performance or termination effects. We conclude that MFMA financial performance can be assessed by the procedure, from analysis of the metropolitan municipality performance assisted by a BPTA advisor for approximately 3 years. The analysis raises questions about BPTA program reform sustainability, but we add the caveat that conclusions cannot be drawn from a single sample metropolitan municipality, but a larger sample need be used for further methodology development to confirm its efficacy. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Building the Rule of International Criminal Law: The Role of Judges and Prosecutors in the Apprehension of War Criminals

International criminal tribunals are weak institutions, especially since they do not have their own police forces to execute arrest warrants. Understandably then, much of the existing literature has focused exclusively on pressure from major powers and on changing domestic politics to explain the apprehension of suspected war criminals. In contrast, this article turns attention back to the tribunals themselves. I propose three ways in which the activities of international criminal tribunals impact compliance with arrest warrants: through the selection of individuals to indict, demonstrated leniency on some suspects and outreach to domestic legal professionals. Using a duration model that accounts for sample selection and data collected on the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia and the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda, I test these theories alongside other existing explanations. I find that court activities can have an independent effect on the successful implementation of international criminal law.

Why Do States Commission the Truth? Political Considerations in the Establishment of African Truth and Reconciliation Commissions

Although the use of truth and reconciliation commissions (TRCs) has grown considerably over the last 3 decades, there is still much that we do not know concerning the choice and the structuring of TRCs. While the literature has focused primarily on the effects of TRCs, we examine the domestic and the international factors influencing the choice of a commission in sub-Saharan Africa from 1974 to 2003 using pooled cross-sectional time series. We find that states which adopted a TRC prior to South Africa were generally repressive centralized regimes which used the truth commission as political cover. However, since South Africa’s TRC, democratizing states have been more likely to adopt a truth commission as a form of transitional justice.

决策者到底如何归因?——一项基于美国外交档案的研究

面对充满不确定性的世界。个体通常通过一种被称为归因的心理机制从不完全的信息中解释他人做出某种行为的原因。类似但更为特殊的心理机制也会发生在当一个国家的决策者需要理解另一个国家的行为以采取某种应对之策的时候。当外交决策者们在试图解释他国的行为时,他们会将哪些变量纳入他们的考虑范畴?他们对他国行为进行归因的方式是否会因情境的不同而有所变化?如果确实有所变化,那么他们在归因时将会存在哪些倾向和偏见?外交决策者通常从能力、决心、利益、意图和该国所处的战略环境五个维度来认知另一个国家行为的原因。而恐惧和族群中心主义均会作用于这五个维度,并且在不同的情境下,两者在各维度的作用方式有所差异。为了验证唐世平提出的行为归因理论,作者采用了一种特殊的内容分析技术——逐字解释文本分析——对1945-1947年间的美国外交档案进行了分析和编码,试图利用二战结束至冷战开始这段时间内美国的主要决策者对苏联行为所进行的数以百计的归因,并对上述归因理论进行经验上的探索。验证结果表明,描述性的证据分析部分支持了这一新的归因理论,但也挑战了这一理论中关于能力、决心和环境维度的部分推断。     

甲午启示录——朝鲜半岛篇

1894年甲午战争爆发后,朝鲜在摆脱与清王朝之间藩属关系的同时又陷入了日本侵略势力的魔掌。随着世界反法西斯战争的胜利,朝鲜终于挣脱了日本的殖民枷锁,获得了独立自主。然而,1954年日内瓦会议关于朝鲜问题的讨论无果而终,无情地宣告朝鲜半岛又进入了南北分治时代。当新的甲午年来临之际,回顾前两个甲午年朝鲜半岛的历史,总结其经验教训,将会为我们客观认识和妥善处理当前朝鲜半岛问题,避免历史悲剧的重演,提供一些有益的启示。     

中菲南海争端仲裁案中菲律宾诉求评析

关于中菲南海争端强制仲裁一案,菲律宾向仲裁法庭提出的诉求可合并为针对中国南海传统断续线的诉求、针对南海中中国部分岛礁的诉求和针对中国南海行使管辖权的诉求.对此,中国在应对上可选择向仲裁法庭行使“初步反对的权利”或其他合法方式发表其没有管辖权的理由,并通过反对申请书的可接受性力争结束仲裁.     

江南文化资源的类型及其阐释

明清以来形成的江南文化以诗性精神为内核,由物质文化资源、社会文化资源和审美文化资源构成,主要类型有古镇文化资源、农桑文化资源、饮食文化资源、都市文化资源、工业文化资源、运河文化资源、园林和戏曲文化资源.这些文化资源已经成为江南地区再发展的重要基础.对江南文化资源进行系统梳理和价值研究,探索其在城市化和后现代社会背景下的...     

韩国北极综合政策及其实施评析

随着全球气候变暖,北极的各种利益优势正在显现,而且超越区域范畴而成为全球的问题,因此对于非北极国家也具有重要意义。韩国出于国内和国际两方面的长远考虑,综合采取法律、政治、经济、行政、科学、科技等多种手段,拓展其北极利益。中国同样在北极有着重要战略利益。当前,及时跟踪北极相关国家政策动态并加以分析,对中国北极战略利益的实现不无裨益。     

云南中缅边境打击走私制毒物品战略及对策

易制毒化学品是海洛因以及冰毒等新型毒品“生产”的必要条件，是防止易制毒化学品流入境外毒源地，是“四禁并举”标本兼治的根据。只有遏制易制毒化学品原料非法出境，才能从源头上减少毒品犯罪。在强调积极查处案件、及时移交运输制毒物品案件的同时，还应当保障执法单位缴获的制毒物品能及时鉴定、涉案制毒物品依法及时处理（回收、拍卖、变卖或销毁）。     

“南方谈话”与今日中国之改革开放

改革开放分为三个阶段,分别处于抬脚起步阶段、大脚快步阶段和合脚正步阶段。较之于前两个阶段的改革开放,当前的改革开放可以预见和不可预见的困难将会更大,矛盾也更为集中。改革开放仍然是中国发展红利,要拿出壮士断腕的勇气推进改革开放。