韩国对美国“印太战略”的认知与政策

韩国认为,特朗普政府提出的"印太战略"深受日本安倍政府的影响,其主要目的在于拉拢从太平洋到印度洋区域内的国家共同围堵中国。由于这个反华企图,再加上特朗普政府推行"美国优先"政策等,导致该区域内其他国家不愿完全追随美国,所以特朗普任内很难落实"印太战略"。在此认知和判断下,2017年5月上台的文在寅政府开始明确拒绝支持"印太战略"。随着美国白宫、国防部和国务院相关报告的出台,美国推进"印太战略"的意志日益强烈,要求韩国参加"印太战略"的压力也越来越大。与此同时,韩国越来越需要美国协助解决朝核问题和调解韩日矛盾,再加上中韩关系逐渐恢复,所以韩国最终决定用其"新南方政策""对接"美国的"印太战略"。韩国一再强调,此举不是"加入印太战略",而是以东盟为中心,仅围绕经济、治理以及非传统安全领域进行合作。这在很大程度上反映了文在寅政府的"均衡外交"理念和扮演"桥梁国家"角色的愿望。今后韩国如何进一步回应美国的要求,主要取决于未来韩国政权的性质、拜登政府推动"印太战略"的连续性,以及中美关系的变化等。但无论未来内外形势如何变化,韩国都会认识到中国和中韩关系的重要性,而不会一边倒地完全参与到旨在围堵中国的"印太战略"中去,而是有选择地支持与合作。     

Ideological identity,issue-based ideology and bipolar affective polarization in multiparty systems: The cases of Argentina,Chile, Italy,Portugal and Spain

In multiparty contexts, we know that affective polarization tends to cluster in ideological blocs, although the factors driving this process are still quite unexplored. In this paper, we contribute to filling this gap in the literature by exploring the capacity of ideological identity vis-à-vis issue-based ideology to polarize sentiments towards party voters into two opposing left-right blocs. Specifically, we provide empirical evidence that affective attachments to ideological labels increase the affective distance between ideological blocs to a greater extent than issue extremity and issue consistency. These bipolarizing effects of ideological identity persist even when the identity is inconsistent with issue-based ideology. Additionally, we show that bipolar affective polarization exerts little reverse influence on ideological identity. We support these arguments using an original survey from the TRI-POL project carried out in five multiparty systems: Argentina, Chile, Italy, Portugal and Spain.     

Political imperatives and military preparations: New insights into why South Africa’s 1998 intervention in Lesotho went awry

In September 1998 South African troops crossed into Lesotho to restore stability to the small mountain kingdom that had been roiled by protests for months. Operation Boleas encountered heavy resistance – in the ensuing chaos dozens died and the towns of Maseru, Mohale’s Hoek and Mafeteng were damaged. Media and scholarly commentary on the intervention was scathing, but in the rush to judge there has been insufficient effort to chronicle and clarify. This article uses declassified archival records and interviews with policy makers to provide a more exhaustive explanation of how the Mandela Administration decided on the deployment of troops into Lesotho. It focuses on the difficulty South African officials had in aligning their political objectives with the military exigencies of the rapidly changing crisis. This re-examination of the Lesotho intervention rectifies historical inaccuracies while also identifying potential problems that policy makers should be conscious of when considering future peace missions.     

On regional security governance once again: how analysis of the Southern Caucasus can advance the concept

Already introduced to the academic and political debate some years ago, the concept of “security governance” still needs to be clarified. In particular, four main shortcomings need to be overcome to make the concept more useful for an assessment of current security dynamics: in the first place, attention has been devoted more to “governance” than to “security”, while failing to consider the role of the understandings and perceptions of the actors involved in the governance system. Second, the literature on the actors (governmental or not) involved is still fragmented. Third, the literature on security governance has too often been detached from reflections on regionalism, while it would be useful to further explore the relationship between cognitive definitions of regional and security dynamics. Fourth, the literature has predominantly focused on Europe and the transatlantic area, overlooking processes of “region-building” in security terms in other “unexpected” geographical spaces. After proposing avenues to overcome the current gaps in the literature, the Southern Caucasus is chosen as a case study to show the different instances of security governance emerging, thanks to definitions of the region in security terms that have involved regional and external actors, of a state and non-state nature.     

Forms of state and European energy security: diplomacy and pipelines in Southeastern Europe

Focusing on natural gas and pipeline infrastructures, and adopting the concept of “forms of state”, the article examines the transformation of energy security politics in Europe. Three state models, with their related pattern of energy diplomacy, are sketched: the partner state, which describes the original politics of the European gas market; and the provider state and catalytic state, which describe two alternative possibilities of the emerging politics in the new institutional and ideational context promoted with the establishment of the internal energy market and the development of the EU’s external energy policy. By analysing the politics of pipeline in Southeastern Europe, the article argues that the catalytic state model with its related pattern of network energy diplomacy is more appropriate than the provider state model, supported by the market approach and its related pattern of multilateral diplomacy, to conceptualise the equilibrium emerging from the transformation of the previous system.     

The Election of African American State Legislators in the Modern South

This study is the most comprehensive analysis of the election of black state legislators in the American South. We start with the election of Leroy Johnson to the Georgia Senate in 1962, the first African American to win a state legislative seat in the modern South. We also document the election of all subsequent African Americans who were the first to enter their southern state legislative chambers. Next, we assess the factors influencing the election of southern black state legislators from the 1970s through 2015. Because of notable long-term changes to the southern electorate and alterations in the racial composition of legislative districts, there has been substantial variation in the likelihood of electing black lawmakers. Our final analysis highlights the undeniable reality and broader significance that the increasing share of southern African American state legislators has occurred at the same time that Republican representation has grown at a greater rate.     

影响南疆绿洲地区精准扶贫的因素与应对策略 以南疆和田地区三个县为例

和田绿洲地区位于南疆四地州,作为新时期的国家连片特困地区与深度贫困地区之一,脱贫攻坚任务十分艰巨。2014年以来,在国家精准扶贫政策支持下,脱贫工作取得了显著成效,贫困发生率大大降低。但是由于特殊地理、人口、文化等因素影响,脱贫攻坚仍然面临诸多困难,迫切需要结合绿洲社会经济文化特点精准施策,促进脱贫成效的提升。     

Welfare Performance in Southern Europe: Employment Crisis and Poverty Risk

The Great Recession has had a deep impact on employment levels and on income inequality in the Southern European countries (Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy). It has given rise to a new stage in the discussion on the distinctiveness of a possible ‘Mediterranean’ variant of welfare capitalism. This paper analyses the performance of the Mediterranean cluster during the Great Recession period in its two main dimensions, labour market participation and poverty risk, and to what extent that performance has evolved in a divergent or convergent manner. Firstly, it portrays the main changes in this variant of welfare capitalism during the last two decades. The second and third sections, respectively, provide a comparative profile of the employment crisis suffered by these countries and of its impact on poverty risks. Finally, the main institutional traits are discussed, explaining the relative performance of welfare capitalism in this cluster of countries.     

魏晋南北朝步虚词初探

“:步虚词”这种文学样式,从题材内容至文体起源都与道教有着密切的联系。该文体大约出现于东晋,大致可以分为道教徒创作和教外文人创作两大类。搞清步虚词的起源、内容特征、与道教的联系、存在的现实功能等,对全面了解把握步虚词这种文体,及其对中国古代文学的影响,都有着重要意义。