俄罗斯工会改革的历史与现实：基于社会统合主义的分析

俄罗斯工会在苏联解体之后经历了由计划经济到市场经济的转变,最终形成了社会统合主义的 模式。本研究在梳理俄罗斯工会改革历史的基础上,根据统合主义理论分析了俄罗斯工会在与政府的关系、对 工人利益的代表性和自身行动能力 3 个方面的现实情况。研究认为,俄罗斯工会在改革初期复杂、动荡的政治 经济背景下所追求的自由主义模式受历史因素影响并不成功。改革的转机出现在统一俄罗斯党成立之后,俄罗 斯工会与政府关系迅速改善,并在执政党的同情和支持下提升了自身对工人利益的代表性和行动能力,特别是 运用法律武器的能力。但俄罗斯工会也面临着新就业形式和移民劳工增长的挑战,还需要进一步的改革以适应 劳动力市场的复杂变化。     

关于加强中国国家软实力建设的几点思考

10月18日中共十七届六中全会在北京落幕,会议审议通过了《中共中央关于深化文化体制改革、推动社会主义文化大发展大繁荣若干重大问题的决定》,国家文化建设作为软实力塑造的重要组成部分,将人们的视线再次拉回到传统文化建设上来。自从20世纪90年代初美国著名学者约瑟夫·奈提出“软实力”概念以来,它就开始成为世界各国关注的焦点。纵观近现代世界一流强国崛起的历史,可以看出“软实力”建设在其崛起的过程中发挥了重要作用。中国在和平发展过程中如何提高自身的国际影响力,如何通过软实力来塑造中国良好的国际形象,掌控能力、战略信誉以及表现能力非常重要。     

中国气候外交的战略布局

近年来,气候变化问题在国际关系中的地位不断上升,成为影响国际格局走势的一个重要因素,并将引起世界各国外交领域的“气候变革”。当前,应对气候变化已成为中国“领域外交”的一项重要任务。气候外交作为中国整体外交布局的重要组成部分,是中国积极应对气候变化、优化对外战略布局的一项重要举措。认清形势并进行战略布局,积极开展气候外交,促进国民经济健康可持续发展,进一步提升国家形象,更好地履行国际责任,也是中国和平发展战略的一项重要内容。     

公私合作行为的行政法实证分析——以“治安承包”为中心考察

现代行政国家行政任务不断增加,行政机关为完成行政任务,不得不同私人部门合作,公私合作兴起。公私合作行为是弥补公私合作背景下传统行政行为形式的不足而孕育产生一种新型的行政行为,主要体现为行政契约和私法上的契约。通过“治安承包”这种典型的公私合作行为形式的行政法实证分析,以期达到考察公私合作行为的法律形式。     

Strategy and Selection in International Relations

It is widely recognized that many of the samples we use for statistical analysis in international politics are the result of some selection process. Not surprisingly, selection models are becoming increasingly popular. At the same time, the role of strategic interaction has begun to play a more important role in statistical analyses. However, it has not been clear how statistical strategic models and selection models relate to each other, or what the effects are of employing one when the other is the more appropriate model. In this article, I 1) clarify why international relations scholars cannot shield themselves from selection bias simply by assuming their results are limited to a given sample; 2) show how recent statistical strategic models relate to traditional selection models and generalize the two sets of models by deriving a correlated strategic model; and 3) examine the effects of misspecifying either correlated errors or strategic interaction. My results indicate that failure to model the strategic interaction produces worse specification error than failure to account for correlated disturbances. In fact, traditional bivariate probit models appear to be superior only when states are almost completely uncertain about each others' preferences.     

Modeling Selection Bias in Studies of Sanctions Efficacy

Sanctions rarely work but they continue to be used frequently by policymakers. I argue that previous studies of sanctions ignore the problem of strategic censoring by focusing only on cases of observed sanctions. In this paper, I develop a unified model of sanction imposition and success and test it using a simultaneous equation censored probit model. This selection-corrected sanction model finds that the process by which sanctions are imposed is linked to the process by which some succeed while others fail, and that the unmeasured factors that lead to sanction imposition are negatively related to their success.     

Where in the world is South Africa? Lecture by Ambassador Tony Leon 14 February 2013

Most of the current constructs which theoretically underpin foreign policy for this country are either overblown or incoherent; they do not appropriately define or advance or prioritise South Africa's national interests abroad, nor do they acknowledge the tensions embedded in the clash between normative policies and realpolitik. Drawing from ‘real time’ experiences in international diplomacy, this lecture explores some of the dilemmas that South Africa, as a middle-range power in the world, confronts in its international engagements. The cost-effectiveness of South Africa's global projection is also examined, and some practical reforms to achieve better results in the current age of austerity suggested.     

Innocent of the crime under investigation: suspects’ counter-interrogation strategies and statement-evidence inconsistency in strategic vs. non-strategic interviews

ABSTRACT

The study examines the counter-interrogation strategies applied by mock suspects (N?=?94), who are innocent of a mock crime under investigation but who were present at the scene, for different reasons, at around the time the crime occurred. Half were present at the crime scene to carry out a lawful act, the other half to carry out an unlawful act. Furthermore, this study examines the effect of the Strategic Use of Evidence (SUE) technique as a strategic interviewing technique (vs. a non-strategic technique), on suspects’ statement-evidence inconsistencies. Participants were randomly assigned to the two interview conditions (strategic vs. non-strategic) and were interviewed as suspects of a crime, which none of them had committed. The results show that the most commonly used counter-interrogation strategy in both groups was to be honest. However, 26.1% of the innocent suspects, performing an unlawful act, reported the strategy to be deceptive. In addition, the statements of suspects executing an unlawful act were significantly more inconsistent with the evidence in the strategic than the non-strategic interview condition. The increased statement-evidence inconsistency rates potentially put these suspects at risk of being assessed as guilty of a crime they did not commit.     

Violence against women as conveyed by surveys – the Finnish case

The methodological choices made in a survey may partly shape the picture a survey conveys of partnership violence. This article considers some of the choices made in the Finnish survey on violence against women, such as the way the violence was defined and how the definition tried to take into account the special characteristics of this kind of violence, in order to help the respondents to identify and recall different events of it. The empirical analyses showed that the used definition of violence had not reached all the respondents representing different population groups. The experiences of partner violence among older, less educated women, and the experiences of those who felt embarrassed or ashamed to speak about issues concerning their partner or partnership, were more probably under-represented in the survey.     

The Democratization of Welfare Between Rhetoric and Reality: Local Planning,Participation, and Third Sector in Italy

The third sector, traditionally considered in the Italian welfare state as a residual actor of social policies, has increasingly engaged itself in various types of partnerships and collaborative planning processes with the local authority in recent years. In the rhetoric of welfare reform, third sector organizations play an important role, for they contribute to regenerating local democracy, stimulating communities, and fighting social exclusion. The article examines 12 local area plans, which have been realized in eight regions of Italy since 2000, by relying on empirical data and interviews. The article concludes that the so-called co-governance of local welfare can produce very different levels of democratization and improvement of social programs. In some areas, it may be that valorizing the third sector can effectively renew social policies, while in others the exact reverse may happen. The article offers an analysis of the main factors that influenced this result.