"三个代表"与马克思主义的与时俱进精神

马克思主义具有与时俱进的内在创造精神,而“三个代表”重要思想则体现了这种 精神。     

法律视野中的时间范畴

“时间”首先是自然科学和哲学的范畴 ,其运动规律在法律制度设计的技术化特征上也有体现。本文从分析法学与哲学、经济学的学科间影响 ;法律制度中与“时间”相关的概念、规则和原则 ;法律规范与客观规律的关系入手 ,阐述了“时间”范畴与法律制度、法律价值、法律程序、法律成本的密切联系 ,意在提醒人们 ,在研究法律制度的价值追求和伦理评价的基础上 ,法律中的时间问题或是以“时间”为重要范畴来分析法律制度的有关内容 ,具有重要的价值意义和工具意义 ,值得做思考的努力。     

论江泽民领导理论的时代特色

江泽民领导理论着眼于发展与创新 ,坚持理论与实践的统一 ,领导与群众的统一 ,世界观与方法论的统一 ,贯穿了“三个代表”重要思想 ,继承和发展了马克思主义领导理论 ,形成系统、完整、科学的现代领导理论。     

The estimation of the time of death by non-protein nitrogen (NPN) in cadaveric materials. Report 3: Multiple regression analysis of NPN values in human cadaveric materials

The non-protein nitrogen (NPN) values in brain, lung, liver, and kidney in 79 autopsy cases were determined according to the Micro-Kjeldahl Nessler method. Multiple regression analysis of the data was performed with every possible combination of the time of death and the NPN values in the tissues.The brain NPN showed the best correlation with the postmortem time (r = 0.673), whereas the other correlations were less satisfactory (lung r = 0.422, liver r = 0.397, and kidney r = 0.379, respectively). However, multiple combinations of each tissue NPN value proved to give better correlation coefficients and smaller errors of the estimated time of death.The practical significance of the tissue NPN as a postmortem biochemical indicator of the time of death and the multiple regression analysis of such indicators were extensively discussed in this report.     

四川省超法定时限办案基本情况、原因和对策的调查分析

四川省超法定时限办案的情况较为严重,其原因主要包括主、客观两方面因素。减少此类情况发生的措施有:提高办案人员的程序意识;强化监督,落实办案责任制;加强政法队伍建设;完善相关的法律法规。     

Reading jihad: Mapping the shifting themes of Inspire magazine

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’s Inspire magazine has received attention within Western academia and media for its role in inspiring and instructing a series of homegrown terrorist attacks. Reporting on the magazine often characterises it as a Western-centric instrument of jihadi discourse. This characterisation, while broadly accurate, is in need of refinement. Using a modified version of Jennifer Attride-Stirling’s method of thematic network analysis, this research visualises and analyses the narrative themes contained within fourteen issues of Inspire magazine. It demonstrates that the magazine’s narrative extends well beyond the Western world. In reality, Inspire’s themes centre not only on the West and its Muslim populations, but on local politics and broader religious issues. The magazine’s thematic focus has also shifted over time—particularly in response to (a) political volatility in the Middle East and North Africa, (b) the killing of prominent jihadists, and (c) the execution of successful individual jihad operations. Throughout these periods of change, Inspire struggled to maintain focus on its anti-Western narrative and proved easily distracted by local issues and the “martyrdom” of Al Qaeda leaders. Understanding Inspire’s thematic landscape and its shifting character prove important in understanding and responding effectively to its jihadi discourse.     

Dynamic latent trait models: An application to Latin American banking crises

Dynamic latent trait models combine information from a variety of manifest variables, possibly measured on different scales, that are presumed to be indicators of an unobserved latent phenomenon, while allowing appropriate consideration of the longitudinal character of time series. I use a Bayesian dynamic latent trait model of banking sector financial accounts measured at the country/quarter level to build an indicator of banking system robustness in Latin America. As a methodological innovation, I extend dynamic latent trait models to take into account country-specific effects of bank regulatory regimes through hierarchical modeling of factor loadings. I suggest how these models can be applied to other types of phenomena—for example to combine existing political regime indicators to build a more informative measure of democracy.     

On filtering longitudinal public opinion data: Issues in identification and representation of true change

The Kalman filter is a popular tool in engineering and economics. It is becoming popular in political science, touted for its abilities to reduce measurement error and produce more precise estimates of true public opinion. Its application to survey measures of public opinion varies in important ways compared to the traditionally understood Kalman filter. It makes a priori assumptions about the variance of the sampling error that would not usually be made and does so in a way that violates an important property of the Kalman filter. Consequently, the behavior of the filter modified for public opinion measures is less well-known. Through simulations we assess whether and to what extent filtering: reliably detects the characteristics of time series; does so across series with different rates of autoregressive decay; and does so when the variance of the sampling error is unknown. We also examine whether the filtered data represents the level of true underlying variance and the extent to which filtering assists or hinders our ability to detect exogenous shocks. We learn a numbers of things. Most importantly, taking into account sampling error variance when filtering data can work well, though its performance does vary. First, filtering works best identifying time series characteristics when assuming a stationary process, even if the underlying process contains a unit root. Second, the performance of filtering drops off when we incorrectly specify the variance of the sampling error, and especially when we overestimate it. Third, when estimating exogenous shocks it is better to make no a priori assumptions regarding a measurement error variance unless we are absolutely certain we know what it is. In fact, applying the filter without specifying the measurement error variance is more often than not the best choice.     

民国时期法定继承人的范围及其演变

民国时期的民事立法,既传承传统,又除旧立新。其继承法中的法定继承人的范围及其演变,最为明显地影响传统的家族法。探究中西法文化冲突背景下该领域法律的演变发展很有价值。     

Applying Time-series Cross Correlation Analysis to Examine the Nexus between Firearms and Homicide in Hong Kong

This paper applied time series analysis to examine the nexus between firearm robberies and homicide in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HK). Recent years have seen a reduction in firearm related offences in HK compared to Britain. For instance, only three cases of firearm robbery in 2004 in HK (0.1% of all robbery; 2,237 incidents) involved genuine firearms, compared to 4,117 firearm robbery incidents (4% of all robbery) in Britain in the same year. This paper established a cross-correlation coefficient of 0.50 at lag 0 for the annual rate of two serious crimes, genuine firearm robbery and homicide, after identifying an ARMA(1,0) model from each time series (1972–2002). The results suggest that the prevalence of firearm robbery is moderately associated with the prevalence of homicide in HK.