行为理论之反思与选择——以大陆法系“阶层”的犯罪论体系为视角

基于行为是犯罪存在的基本形式，有必要对行为理论存在的必要性和重要性予以确定，并在对诸行为理论了解、分析的基础上，选择适当的行为理论贯彻到犯罪成立理论当中。     

Tracing leadership: the ECB’s ‘whatever it takes’ and Germany in the Ukraine crisis

Abstract

Political scientists face problems when assessing a leader’s impact: how can we know that a policy outcome or institutional change is caused by leadership? This article argues that in addition to relying on comparisons and counterfactuals, we need to trace the causal mechanisms by which leadership affects outcomes. Therefore, the article proposes a way to trace leadership and applies it to two cases of EU crisis management: the European Central Bank’s role in announcing Outright Monetary Transactions in the eurozone crisis, and Germany’s role in shaping the EU’s response to the Ukraine crisis. Systematic process-tracing shows that both actors provided leadership ‘by default’. However, while the ECB had to combine the provision of knowledge with unilateral action in order to overcome the eurozone crisis, Germany could use manifold bargaining-based strategies and thus became the EU’s de facto agenda setter and main representative in managing the Ukraine crisis.     

基于工作价值观的公共科技服务员工激励探析

本文基于调研数据分析了公共科技服务员工工作价值观的新特点,探讨了运用复杂适应系统理论研究公共科技服务员工激励问题的可行性;同时,采用自适应神经模糊推理系统(ANFIS)方法建立了基于工作价值观的公共科技服务员工激励决策模型,该模型对研究公共科技服务员工工作价值观激励具有良好效果。本研究采用实证研究方法分析了不同激励方案对提高员工绩效的效果差异,从而对模型的有效性进行了验证。本研究成果可以为国家制定公共科技服务员工激励政策提供决策支持。     

Narcotics and crime: A causal modeling approach

The present study examines the relationships between narcotics use and criminality utilizing a confirmatory structural equation modeling approach. Latentvariable and manifest-variable models are used to represent causal relationships between narcotics use and criminality in both the postaddiction and the pretreatment periods of the addiction career. Latent-variable models include a preexisting deviance construct as an exogenous factor, and manifest-variable models include a measure of drug trafficking, or dealing, as an influencing variable. Both inclusions are made as an attempt to minimize specification error in the models. The results are consistent in showing that, while simultaneous relationships between narcotics and criminality are clearly demonstrable, the prediction of either variable from the other across time cannot be demonstrated. It is concluded that causal relationships between narcotics and criminality are probably not characterized by an appreciable or identifiable time lag. Other theoretical considerations suggested by the modeling results are discussed, such as the role of idiosyncratic approaches to the economics of maintaining addition.     

判明案件性质的几种推理形式

判明案件性质是刑事侦查的一项重要任务。推理是判明案件性质的主要思维形式,它包括必然推理和或然推理。在推理过程中,应避免犯三种逻辑错误。     

湖北农村妇女教育现状及影响因素

农村妇女是建设农村物质文明和精神文明的重要力量.我们采用调查问卷的方式对湖北农村妇女的教育现状进行了调查,对其存在的问题及影响因素作了分析,并提出应对的措施与建议.     

States' interests as limits to the power of finance: Regulatory reforms in early local government financialization in the US and UK

Through a comparison of typical and deviant cases, this study probes and refines the augmented power model which argues that the structural power of the financial industry fosters its instrumental power in influencing regulatory reforms under certain scope conditions. It shows the industry's success in influencing policymakers to authorize municipalities to use derivatives and thereby to financialize their debt management in the US (typical case). The failure of banks to acquire such a law in the UK (deviant case) reveals a hitherto little-noticed condition under which this power explanation collapses: states' fiscal and monetary constitution. We demonstrate that analyzing the operation of finance power requires a precise consideration of how states' fiscal and monetary constitution structures governments' responses to financial industry's regulatory preferences. Moreover, we conclude that synthesizing business power research with literature on the mutual dependence between states and finance helps to explain patterns of state financialization.     

Inferring ethnicity using 15 autosomal STR loci—Comparisons among populations of similar and distinctly different physical traits

The forensic utility of short tandem repeat (STR) polymorphisms for ethnic inference (EI) has recently received limited attention from the research community. The large volume of population specific STR data available from public literature affords us the opportunity to assess the reliability of EIs based on STR profiles, and present significant results. We applied a binary Bayesian approach using 15 autosomal STR loci from computer-simulated and real STR profiles of Han Chinese, Japanese, Korean, American Caucasian, and a South Asian Indian aboriginal tribal group called Lodha. A correct classification rate of ≥90% was achieved via simulation for each East Asian group (Han Chinese, Japanese, and Korean) when paired with the American Caucasian or the tribal Indian group. Similar result was obtained between the Caucasian and the Indian group, while the correct classification rates among the three East Asian groups were much lower (70%). Results based on real profiles closely matched those achieved via simulation, establishing the credibility of our classifier performance metrics. This study shows that binary Bayesian classifier performed best for ethnic groups with distinctly different physical traits. This observation might be due to accidental differences caused by bottlenecks, genetic drift, etc. However, it could also be taken as an indication that STRs, commonly referred to as “junk” DNA, may have an effect on phenotype, a possibility that warrants further research.     

群体性突发事件的机理研究

群体性突发事件的发生不是孤立事件,而是一系列时间相继发生的结果。借用美国海因里希的事故因果连锁分析模型和社会物理学的社会燃烧理论进行探讨分析,结论是：任何事件的产生都必须具备三个基本条件,一是燃烧材料,二是助燃剂,三是点火温度。三个基本条件缺一不可。在因果连锁模型中把社会环境不稳定状态视为“燃烧物质”,而信息熵视为“助燃剂”,群体性突发事件视为“点火温度”。明确每一个方面的机理机制,提出治理措施,才能把问题解决好。     

Reaping What They Sow? Victim-Offender Overlap Perceptions and Victim Blaming Attitudes

Examining the tendency to attribute blame to crime victims reveals a striking dichotomy. Some types, such as children, elicit intense emotional reactions from the public. Alternatively, others, such as the typical victims of street crimes, garner substantially less concern. According to the “just world” hypothesis, these latter groups may be perceived by the public as criminally involved, and so “blameworthy” for their victimization. We test this hypothesis—specifically, we evaluate whether perceptions of the extent of victims’ involvement in crime are associated with dispositional attributions for victimization. Data from a recent national survey (N = 760) are analyzed. To extend generalizability, we replicate results with a college sample (N = 733). Findings indicate that victim-offender overlap perceptions vary consistently by crime type. There is also consistent evidence that perceiving a larger victim-offender overlap is associated with the view that the causes of criminal victimization are, in part, dispositional—and thus that crime victims hold personal responsibility.