Ballot-Box Vigilantism? Ethnic Population Shifts and Xenophobic Voting in Post-Soviet Russia

To what extent does voting for anti-immigrant parties relate to long-term changes in ethnic composition within states? Four theoretical models are developed, based on studies of interethnic attitudes, housing segregation, racial violence, and hate crime in the United States. Each model is tested with the data on ethnic composition of the Russian Federation from 1989 to 2002 and voting for the extreme nationalist Zhirinovsky Bloc in the 2003 parliamentary election, using multiple regression and ecological inference methods. Most consistently supported is the “defended nationhood” model derived from the sociology of neighborhood vigilantism and the psychology of the security dilemma. Non-trivial, counterintuitive findings are: (1) xenophobic voting was responsive to changes in the proportion of some ethnic groups more so than others and not necessarily those that were more numerous or more widely disliked at the time of the vote (Chechens), but those that raised more uncertainty about the future ethnic composition and identity of the state (Asians); (2) levels of change, but not the rapidity of change in the ethnic composition of the population related significantly to xenophobic voting; and (3) greater percentage of the nation’s dominant ethnic group in a region reduced xenophobic voting by members of that dominant group (the highest share of Slavs voted for Zhirinovsky in the ethnically mixed Volga-Urals area).     

侵犯商业秘密罪中的疑难问题

侵犯商业秘密罪,在犯罪对象上,应注意商业秘密的整体新颖性和部分新颖性的区别;在实行行为上,"利诱"不应包括欺骗;在犯罪结果上,"重大损失"不等于商业秘密自身价值;在主观方面,"应知"应推定为"明知"。     

结构方程模型在社会工作研究中的应用初探

社会工作研究中要注重定性研究和定量研究的互相补充与支持。结构方程模型(StructuralEquationModeling,SEM)是在已有的理论基础上,用与之相应的线性方程系统表示该理论的一种多变量统计分析方法,又称协方差结构分析(CovarianceStructureAnalysis)因果模型(CausalModeling)。在社会工作的研究中,应用结构方程模型要有一定的标准和条件。     

论侦查推理中的或然性推理

或然性推理由于其结论不必然为真 ,在形式逻辑体系中一直未受到重视。然而 ,或然性推理不要求推理前提绝对真实可靠 ,也不要求推理形式严格有效 ,因此 ,在侦查推理中被大量运用。在侦查破案活动中 ,由于客观情况复杂多变 ,侦查推理的前提不可能做到绝对真实可靠 ,并且侦查推理的形式灵活多样 ,很难保证其完全符合形式逻辑推理的规则 ,因此 ,侦查活动中运用的推理可以是、而且更多的情况下是或然性的推理     

如何科学评估公共政策? ——政策评估中的反事实框架及匹配方法的应用

公共决策科学化依赖于科学的公共政策评估。随着国外公共政策评估研究越来越依赖于旨在评估政策因果效应的因果推断方法,国内公共政策学者也开始进行初步尝试,但是如何有效选择和运用因果推断方法开展政策评估研究仍有待系统梳理。本文介绍了公共政策评估方法的反事实框架,精确定义了公共政策的因果效应。在此基础上,本文将匹配方法总结为距离测算与配对两个步骤,并详细阐述了协变量匹配、粗糙完全匹配、马氏距离匹配、倾向值匹配和熵平衡匹配的原理,比较了不同方法的优势与劣势。结合公共政策评估的前沿实证研究,本文介绍了如何具体运用匹配方法进行政策评估研究。本文还探讨了应用匹配方法的注意事项,包括匹配方法的适用性、匹配与回归的关系、匹配方法对样本数量的要求及是否允许放回等。     

How federalism influences welfare spending: Belgium federalism reform through the perspective of the synthetic control method

The question of whether and how federalism influences a country's welfare state has been a longstanding concern of political scientists. However, no agreement exists on exactly how, and under what conditions, federal structures impact the welfare state. This article examines this controversy. It concludes theoretically that the specific constellation of federal structures and distribution of powers need to be considered when theorising the effects of federalism on the welfare state. Using the case of Belgium and applying the synthetic control method, it is shown in the article that without the federalism reform of 1993, the country would have had further decreases in social spending rather than a consolidation of this spending in the years after 1993. In the case of Belgium, the combination of increased subnational spending autonomy in a still national financing system provided ideal conditions for a positive federalism effect on social spending to occur.     

The Polarization of American Environmental Policy: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis of Senate and House Votes, 1971–2013

The partisan polarization of environmental policy is an important development in American politics, but it remains unclear how much such polarization reflects voter preferences, as opposed to disagreements between partisan elites. We conduct a regression discontinuity analysis of all major environmental and energy votes in the Senate and the House, 1971–2013. In total, we have 368,974 individual roll call votes by senators and House Representatives. The causal effect of electing a Democrat instead of a Republican in close elections on pro‐environmental voting is large: when a Democrat wins, pro‐environmental voting increases by over 40 percentage points. Because of the quasi‐experimental research design, this difference cannot be attributed to the median voter's preferences. Next, we test hypotheses concerning possible explanations for the elite partisan conflict. The Democrat–Republican gap is the widest when fossil fuel interests make contributions exclusively to Republicans and when state‐level public opinion is polarized.     

志愿服务与青年发展:因果机制与推进措施

青年发展是社会发展的重要面向,志愿服务是公民社会健康状况的晴雨表。青年志愿服务从培养公民意识、促进公共参与、提升人际关系能力与职业适应性、促进就业以及预防反社会行为等方面有力地促进了青年发展。因此,政府应通过完善志愿服务立法,扶持和培育志愿组织,引入服务学习课程以及鼓励家庭志愿服务等措施推展青年志愿服务,促进青年发展。