有因行为、无因行为之再思考——以行为之“原因”为突破点

德国法的原因理论以"原因"为核心概念:有因行为的原因实际上被意思表示理论中的效果意思所吸收,在判断法律行为效力方面,其应用价值已经不大;无因行为除了效果意思这个内部原因外,更以效果意思以外的、为其设立义务的基础行为为外部原因。无因行为的内部原因是其合法性依据,而外部原因是其合理性依据。无因性理论制造出"过程"与"结果"相分离的法律现象,又通过不当得利制度,将合法性与合理性再次统一。     

回溯推理在案件侦查中的运用

回溯推理就是从已知事物的结论推测原因的推理。由于具有推测性,故结论是或然性的。回溯推理在案件侦查中的作用主要表现在：侦查人员从犯罪现场出发、从调查材料入手,利用回溯推理追溯产生现象的各种可能存在的原因,提出侦查假设,为顺利办案提供侦查线索、划定侦查范围。     

Unjustified inferences about meta-analysis

Berk (Statistical Inference and Meta-Analysis, 2007) asserts that the results of inferential statistics make scientific sense only if the data to which they are applied were actually generated through random sampling from a defined real population. Because meta-analysis data are not generated in that manner, he claims that the statistical conclusions of meta-analysis are fictional and suggests that conventional research review procedures be used instead. This rejoinder argues that Berk’s position on statistical inference represents a narrow literalism that he fails to justify and that does not reflect the way inferential statistics are used or generally understood in contemporary practice. Consequently, his critique has little significance for meta-analysis or any of the other widespread forms of social science research that apply inferential statistics in similar spirit. Berk’s advocacy of conventional literature reviews omits any explanation of how they would avoid the well-documented deficiencies of that approach or be conducted in a manner that offers any advantage over meta-analysis.

Statistical inference and meta-analysis

Statistical inference is a common feature of meta-analysis. Statistical inference depends on a formal model that accurately characterizes certain key features of how the studies to be summarized were generated. The implications of this requirement are discussed and questions are raised about the credibility of confidence intervals and hypothesis tests routinely reported.

法律论证如何“融贯”?——基于“斯科特杀妻案”的语用分析与建构

没有直接证据是否可以定罪?没有直接证据的定罪是否违背"无罪推定"原则呢?我们常常看到法官在此类案件的判决书上写道:犯罪情节构成一个相互印证,且又完整的"证据链"。然而它们是怎样"相互印证"的,为什么能够构成一个完整的"证据链"?法官的判决书上却无下文。事实上,"证据链"的每一个链点,均是一个事实情节,这些事实情节的内在要素与要件构成,均相互印证或相互支持,整个"证据链"的"融贯"机制,实际上因为其使用了回溯性的语用推理,正是语用推理为证据链的融贯性论证提供了新路径和新方法。     

Do the Mental Health Consequences of Sexual Victimization Differ Between Males and Females? A General Strain Theory Approach

Sexual assault is a traumatizing event linked to numerous mental health consequences. Although extant research has thoroughly examined the collateral consequences experienced by females, limited literature exists regarding how sexual violence comparatively affects males and females. Using data from the National Violence Against Women Survey (1995–1996) and a strain theoretical framework, the current study addresses this research gap to understand the effects of sexual assault and sex on depression. Results indicate that victims of sexual assault have higher depression scores than persons who have not been sexually assaulted in their lifetime. Moreover, we found no sex effect for sexual assault on depression. The methodology used eliminated a bias typically associated with regression analyses, caused from statistical inference after improper model selection. Policy implications and directions for future research are discussed.     

骨折经过时间推断的研究现状与展望

Gong Wei;Wang Yantao(The PublicSecurity Bureau of Shiyan,Shiyan,Hubei,442000)     

现代司法理念中的"无罪推定"原则

"无罪推定"作为现代各国的刑事司法的一项基本原则,是人类文明发展的必然结果.现代司法理念中法律价值观的发展方向,是由"国家本位"、"义务本位"向着"个体本位"、"权利本位"前进的,体现在刑事司法中,其追求的目标是以"人体公正"为中心的司法公正."无罪推定"原则,以保护犯罪嫌疑人、被告人在刑事诉讼中的合法权利为核心,以人权保障为理念,反映了现代司法现念的价值取向."无罪推定"原则,首先确立了犯罪嫌疑人、被告人在刑事诉讼中的主体地位,为其各项权利的实现奠定了基础,"控方承担举证责任"、"反对强迫自证其罪"、"非法证据排除"、"疑罪从无"等规则,是"无罪推定"原则的衍生物,是犯罪嫌疑人、被告人诉讼权利得以全面实现的必要保障,同时,也是对抗制诉讼模式的必然要求.     

Ballot-Box Vigilantism? Ethnic Population Shifts and Xenophobic Voting in Post-Soviet Russia

To what extent does voting for anti-immigrant parties relate to long-term changes in ethnic composition within states? Four theoretical models are developed, based on studies of interethnic attitudes, housing segregation, racial violence, and hate crime in the United States. Each model is tested with the data on ethnic composition of the Russian Federation from 1989 to 2002 and voting for the extreme nationalist Zhirinovsky Bloc in the 2003 parliamentary election, using multiple regression and ecological inference methods. Most consistently supported is the “defended nationhood” model derived from the sociology of neighborhood vigilantism and the psychology of the security dilemma. Non-trivial, counterintuitive findings are: (1) xenophobic voting was responsive to changes in the proportion of some ethnic groups more so than others and not necessarily those that were more numerous or more widely disliked at the time of the vote (Chechens), but those that raised more uncertainty about the future ethnic composition and identity of the state (Asians); (2) levels of change, but not the rapidity of change in the ethnic composition of the population related significantly to xenophobic voting; and (3) greater percentage of the nation’s dominant ethnic group in a region reduced xenophobic voting by members of that dominant group (the highest share of Slavs voted for Zhirinovsky in the ethnically mixed Volga-Urals area).     

Institutions and the Growth of Knowledge: Evidence from International Environmental Regimes

This article argues that institutions not only reflect ideas prevalent at the time of their creation, but also play vital roles in driving the growth and dissemination of knowledge. Because institutions are not actors in their own right, however, it is essential to identify the mechanisms through which they influence the behavior of those who are producers and consumers of knowledge. The central section of the article explores three distinct mechanisms or families of mechanisms that come into play in this context:(1) framing the research agenda, (2) privileging certain types of knowledge claims, and (3) guiding the application of knowledge to specific policy concerns. The article's concluding section examines the policy implications flowing from the proposition that institutions play significant roles in creating knowledge regarding the issues they address. Throughout, observations relating to international environmental or resources regimes provide a source of illustrations.