A Counterterrorism Strategy for the Obama Administration

This article assesses the scope and nature of the current terrorist threat to the United States and suggests a strategy to counter it. Al-Qaeda continues to pose the most serious terrorist threat to the U.S. today. If the September 11, 2001 attacks have taught us anything, it is that al-Qaeda is most dangerous when it has a sanctuary or safe haven from which to plan and plot attacks. Al-Qaeda has acquired such a sanctuary in Pakistan's Federal Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and its North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and surrounding environs. Accordingly, the highest priority for the new American presidential administration must be to refocus our—and our allies'—attention on Afghanistan and Pakistan, where al-Qaeda began to collapse after 2001, but has now re-grouped. This will entail understanding that al-Qaeda and its local militant jihadi allies cannot be defeated by military means alone. Success will require a dual strategy of systematically destroying and weakening enemy capabilities—that is, continuing to kill and capture al-Qaeda commanders and operatives—along with breaking the cycle of terrorist recruitment among radicalized “bunches of guys” as well as more effectively countering al-Qaeda's effective information operations. The U.S. thus requires a strategy that harnesses the overwhelming kinetic force of the American military as part of a comprehensive vision to transform other, non-kinetic instruments of national power in order to deal more effectively with irregular and unconventional threats. This article first discusses the scope and details of the terrorist threat today and then proposes a counterterrorism strategy for the new presidential administration. It focuses first on creating a micro approach to address the deteriorating situation in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. It then considers the requirements of a broader macro strategy to counter terrorism and insurgency.     

Tracking the War of Ideas: A Poll of Ottawa Muslims

A 2008 poll of 430 Ottawa Muslims found predominantly negative views of the U.S. war on terrorism, including the war in Iraq and the war in Afghanistan. This poll also assessed approval of Western powers (U.S., Canada, Israel, United Nations) and challengers of Western power (Al-Qaeda, Hamas, Hizballah, government of Iran). Surprisingly, attitudes of Ottawa Muslims toward militant Muslim groups were unrelated to their attitudes toward Western governments. Discussion suggests that this pattern, if confirmed in other Muslim polls, would mean that the war of ideas against radical Islam must address not one target but two: favorable opinions of militants and unfavorable opinions of the U.S. Muslims who come to like the West more may not like Muslim militants any less.     

Bargaining Between Rebel Groups and the Outside Option of Violence

Although military cooperation among rebel groups in multi-party civil wars could help rebels defeat or extract concessions from an incumbent government, violent conflict among rebel groups is empirically prevalent. Why do rebel groups in multi-party civil wars choose to fight one another? This article models the strategic dilemma facing rebel groups in multi-party civil wars as an alternating-offer bargaining game of incomplete information with an outside option. The game-theoretic model explores the relationship between the status quo distribution of power among rebel groups, the costs of fighting, and the likelihood that one rebel group will opt to unilaterally end bargaining over a set of goods, such as access to supply routes, natural resources, and control over civilian populations. We show that the likelihood of violent conflict between rebel groups is lowest when the status quo distribution of benefits reflects the existing distribution of power.     

Success or Failure in the Peace Processes of Aceh and Sri Lanka: A Comparative Study

Abstract

This study examines why some internal conflicts end in negotiated agreements, while negotiations fail in others. In order to address this question, I compare the cases of Aceh, where some 30 years of armed conflict ended in a 2005 peace agreement between Gerakan Aceh Merdeka (GAM, the Free Aceh Movement) and the government of Indonesia; and Sri Lanka, where 2002–2006 negotiations between the government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam broke down. This study adopts ideas from bargaining theories of war, focusing on the adversaries’ power perceptions in relation to actions that led to the civil war settlements. It identifies three variables as decisive: (1) information revealed by war, (2) control over spoilers, and (3) divisions in the ranks of the rebel organization.     

War and Democratization: Lessons from the Portuguese Experience

The literature on democracy suggests that new democracies should have difficulty emerging during war or in the aftermath of armed struggle, yet Portugal's current democracy emerged simultaneously with the end of the nation's unsuccessful war in Africa. This article addresses the reasons and argues that democracy triumphed not simply in spite of the war but also, in part, because of it. The costs and geography of the war itself, the capacity and rootedness of the state that waged the war, the political culture of the regime's military officers, and the war-related timing of Portugal's first elections all helped prevent the emergence of an anti-democratic coalition and contributed to ensuring a successful transition to democracy. The article ends with three ideas that merit closer examination: that different sorts of wars leave different legacies for democracy; that wars that leave state bureaucracies intact or stronger are more likely to be followed by lasting democracy than those which do not; and, finally, that the ideologies of military elites are pivotal to the outcome of post-war democratic transitions.     

Zionist historiography and its critics: a case of mythtaken identity?

Since the 1980s, several Israeli scholars, who have come to be known as the 'new historians', have been engaged in the reappraisal of the events surrounding the Zionist state's foundation. They have been highly critical, at the same time, of mainstream Israeli historiography. In his book, Fabricating Israeli History, Karsh launches a vigorous counter-attack against the 'new historians', focusing on shlaim's discussion of Zionist-Transjordan relations during the 1948 war and on Morris's account of the factors that precipitated the flight, in that war, of two-thirds of the Palestinian Arab population. The article reviews the main findings of the 'new history' by referece to Karsh's critique. It identifies the principal points of divergence between the 'old' and 'new' interpretations and provides an assessment of their respective claims.     

Possible role of pseudoephedrine and other over-the-counter cold medications in the deaths of very young children

The Philadelphia Medical Examiners Office has reported a series of 15 deaths between February 1999 and June 2005 of infants and toddlers 16 months and younger in which drugs commonly found in over-the-counter (OTC) cold medications were present. A total of 10 different drugs were detected: pseudoephedrine, dextromethorphan, acetaminophen, brompheniramine, carbinoxamine, chlorpheniramine, ethanol, doxylamine and the anticonvulsants, phenobarbital, and phenytoin. The drugs were confirmed and quantified by gas chromatography (GC)-mass spectrometry, with the exception of ethanol, which was analyzed by headspace GC and of phenobarbital and phenytoin that were quantified by GC with a nitrogen phosphorus detector. The most predominant drug was pseudoephedrine, which was found in all of the cases (blood concentration, n=14, range=0.10-17.0 mg/L, mean=3.34 mg/L) and was the sole drug detected in three cases. Acetaminophen was detected in blood from each of the five cases with sufficient sample. Other drugs (with frequency of detection) were dextromethorphan (five cases), carbinoxamine (four cases), chlorpheniramine (two cases) and brompheniramine, doxylamine, and ethanol (one case each). In the majority of the cases, toxicity from drugs found in easily available OTC medications was listed either as the direct cause of death or as a contributory factor. The manner of death was determined to be natural in only two of the cases. This postmortem study supports previous evidence that the administration of OTC cold medications to infants may, under some circumstances, be an unsafe practice and in some cases may even be fatal. The treating physicians and the general public need to be made more aware of the dangers of using OTC cold medications to treat very young children so that these types of tragedies might be avoided.     

Colombian Foreign Policy and the Spanish Civil War, 1936–1939 (Blakemore Prizewinner for 2020)

The Spanish civil war saw two different Liberal presidencies in Colombia. Contrary to common belief, they did not follow a unified policy towards Spain but instead faced different parameters for action which shaped their response. These policies, in turn, illuminate both the internal dynamics of the two administrations and how they conceived of Colombia's position on the world stage. By providing the national, international and wider structural contexts, this article will therefore use the Spanish conflict to shine a spotlight on the Santos and López governments and the development of Colombian foreign policy during the late 1930s.     

全面抗战爆发前后张闻天对党的建设的重要贡献

1936年到1938年是中国共产党自身建设的关键时期之一,党内在政治路线调整、思想理论武装、组织建设等方面面临着严峻考验。张闻天针对党内出现的不同的错误倾向,在思想倾向、工作侧重点调整等方面前瞻性地提出各种对策,充分发挥自身在中共党内的特殊地位与影响力,将理论思考及时转化为党务工作的实践,为中共在历史转变的关键时刻保证自身政治上、思想上与组织上的先进性、纯洁性做出了不可替代的特殊贡献。     

孙子军事思想与监管安全控制(下)

监狱要提高监管安全控制效能,可借鉴孙子兵法力与谋、知与行、常与变、静与动对立统一的军事哲学思想,努力谋求与践行强制控制与权变控制、信息控制与行动控制、程序控制与随机控制、静态控制与动态控制相统一的监管安全策略。