What are the strategic and economic implications for South Asia of China's Maritime Silk Road initiative?

This article focuses on South Asia's role in China's Maritime Silk Road (MSR) initiative. Given the saliency of this MSR enterprise as part of ChinesePresident Xi Jinping’s “One-Belt-One-Road” strategy, how this ambitious scheme impacts China’s relations with South Asian states along the MSR’s route, i.e. India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Bangladesh, merits investigation. The fate of the MSR will be determined by China’s relations with these states, since South Asia is in the middle of major sea-lanes between East/Southeast Asia and Middle East/Europe. The study examines the intentions and executions of China’s MSR projects in South Asia, evaluates the political and economic calculations of participating in the MSR for regional states, and identifies actions taken by them that can decide the initiative’s success. Politically, reactions of South Asian states to the MSR are explained as: fear of expanding Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean for India; and attempts by which Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Bangladesh use China to counteract possible domination by India. Economically, two MSR pathways for South Asian states are analyzed: increases in Chinese infrastructure investments; and expansion in South Asia-China trade; both of which are reducible by loans owed to China, or “strings”/conditions attached.     

Are same-sex relationships anti-family?: Investigating relationship stability among interracial gay partners in South Africa

One of the main heteronormative beliefs, especially in South Africa, is that same-sex partners do not enjoy stable relationships and that their relationships are often consciously short-term and lack enduring forms of commitment. The last three decades have witnessed the production of some studies (mostly in Europe and America) on same-sex intimate relationships and familial arrangements. Most of these studies compared same-sex and heterosexual relationships. Past studies found some similarities between love and satisfaction in heterosexual and same-sex intimate relationships. In this regard, this study examined relationships stability and satisfaction ingredients among interracial gay partners living in selected Johannesburg suburbs. This study is based on an eight-month qualitative study among 10 interracial gay partners living in some selected Johannesburg suburbs. Data were collected through in-depth interviews from 10 interracial gay men (comprising 20 men who are between 23 and 58 years at the time of the research) in intimate relationships. This study finds that relationship stability and satisfaction was linked to effective communication, trust and equity as the main elements of the interracial gay partnerships. Gay men in this study have similar desires for close intimate bonds and stable households – and adopt numerous resilience strategies to ensure that these relationships remain intact. This contradicts the general stereotype that gay men are anti-family and averse to monogamy. In line with the exchange theory, participants’ exchange of intangible resources, such as trust and effective communication, are associated with their satisfaction and relationship stability.     

Ticket-splitting in mixed-member systems: on the importance of seat linkage between electoral tiers

Abstract

In mixed-member electoral systems, voters usually have two votes: a nominal and a list vote. According to some studies, voters are increasingly using them to cast a split-ticket vote. However, very little is known about whether the type of mixed-member system, and in particular whether the allocation of seats across tiers is linked or not, creates different sets of incentives for this behaviour. This article provides new insights into the topic by analysing survey data from seven countries and 18 elections since 1990. It is found that the proportion of split-ticket votes is greater in mixed-member proportional than in mixed-member majoritarian systems. The results suggest that voters understand the operation of the electoral system and its consequences for the distribution of seats among parties, and adapt their behaviour accordingly.     

Interests,passions and politics: business associations and the sovereignty dispute in Turkey

This paper examines business associations in a context where the state is being contested from below, focusing on Diyarbak?r, a major Kurdish city in Turkey. Against the backdrop of armed conflict, reform processes triggered by the country’s EU candidacy and socio-economic change, Diyarbak?r has become a contested zone over which the Turkish government and the Kurdish movement have been competing for control. Local business associations have also been implicated in such contestation. Considering the situation of dual power and moral economy at the local level, the paper examines how these associations deal with an adverse situation that is characterized by political instability and uncertainty. The analysis shows that business leaders have been able to make the ‘best’ of the situation.     

中国南海安全战略思维:内涵、演变与建构

学术界关于南海争端与中国国家安全的研究,大多基于对象国政策、南海地区权力格局以及中国政策的动态分析,缺乏对于中国南海战略思维和政策的系统梳理。中国南海战略思维包括搁置、大局和寻求共识等多维度的内容,同时对于争端本质倾向于和平的看法。它经历了从基于战略理性的单边默契到文化认同的单边默契的演进,体现了螺旋式变化的特点。中国南海战略思维的固化受到特定政策效果的正反馈、道德正义性以及政治文化习惯等因素的影响,而在力量与实力对比发生变化,外生环境的震动与刺激和领导集体的战略决心增强的情况下,它会发生积极的调整与变化。剖析中国南海战略思维的内涵、特性及其演变,能为理解中国外交的微观基础以及处理好中国的相关争端提供理论启示和实践价值。     

Public Value in Politics: A Legislative Budget Office Approach

We use Legislative Budget Offices (LBOs) as both a lens and a test of “public value in politics,” a facet of Moore’s original framework that remains its most contested. We identify two public value roles for LBOs: (1) as a normative-advisory institution, and (2) as a mechanistic-costing one. Through Moore’s Strategic Triangle, we contrast the higher public value contribution of the advisory role, as manifested in the United States, with the costings role as manifested in Canada. Our findings suggest that LBOs enhance both democracy and efficiency and thus show how “public value in politics” can be achieved.     

Second order secrecy and Europe’s legality mosaics

Abstract

In today’s information society the citizen is ever more visible to government and to private companies while paradoxically government itself becomes ever more secret. This asymmetry is not caused by secrecy implying deliberate or intentional concealment of information. Rather, it results from systems of secrets held by remote or non-visible public and private actors, having been put together in an invisible manner. Second order secrecy is enhanced in the EU by the composite character of EU administration. In the EU it is the courts ? and not the legislature or the administration ? that are playing an active role in addressing bits of the transparency paradox for the citizen from the perspective of legality and the rule of law. Three different aspects of EU governance are explored from the legal perspective: terrorist blacklists, interoperable security administration and mandatory data retention and transfer.     

Stability through control? The influence of coalition agreements on the stability of coalition cabinets

Why do some coalition cabinets terminate early and others run until the end of the legislative term? This article analyses whether coalition agreements lower the risk of early government termination. The main argument is that coalition agreements can increase the stability of coalition cabinets as they lower the probability of intra-cabinet conflict. The theoretical expectations are empirically evaluated on the basis of a newly compiled comprehensive dataset on cabinet duration and control mechanisms in coalition governments. Drawing on event history analysis, the effect of coalition agreements on cabinet duration is tested for 420 coalition cabinets from 1945 until 2015 in 23 Western and Eastern European countries. The results show that the existence and duration of a coalition agreement lower the risk of early government termination. These findings have important implications for our understanding of the interaction between coalition governance and coalition termination.     

Public Value as Rhetoric: A Budgeting Approach

The public value theory has been accused of serving as a “rhetorical device” for public managers to advance their interests and influence vis-à-vis politicians. This article uses Legislative Budget Offices (LBOs) as a lens to re-examine the theme of “public value as rhetoric”. It examines how an LBO can relegate itself to a lower public value-creating position that avoids conflict with politicians, which then allows politicians to employ rhetoric such as fiscal “sustainability” and “responsibility”, without making actual budget choices that incur political costs. The findings of the article suggest that the use of public value as rhetoric is a function of contradictory values held by citizens, which politicians and public managers must reconcile by choosing to divert either resources or rhetoric. Furthermore, rhetoric is bidirectional, and employable not just by public managers, but by politicians as well.     

如何处置群体性事件

群体性：事件处置不当,将给社会稳定带来严重危害。群体性事件的发生机制与燃烧的机制一样：一是被歧视、被不公正对待的社会阶层（或群体、集团）的愤怒或挫折感的积累（即燃料的形成）;二是激发群体性事件的意外事件或谣言（即火种）。群体性事件处置的第一个重要原则是预防,即防止罢工抗议人群情绪失控、防止人群中出现暴力违法行为;第二个重要原则就是在抗议罢工人群出现暴力甚至与警察冲突时,要采取“擒贼擒王”、“网开一面”的原则。