A non-standard method for estimating accuracy of lie detection techniques demonstrated on a self-validating set of field polygraph examinations

Abstract

A unique method for estimating field accuracy of the Comparison Question Test (CQT) – a polygraph technique – is presented, based on a combined probabilistic and algebraic model. It is built on paired examinations in criminal cases in which two opposing versions per case have been subjected to polygraph tests. The developed model is ground-truth free, thus there was no need to rely on external criteria of deception (e.g., confessions or physical evidence) in estimating the accuracy of the CQT. Results indicate an accuracy rate of 0.94 in detecting guilty examinees (Sensitivity) with a 0.06 False Negative rate and an accuracy rate of 0.835 (Specificity) with False Positive of 0.165 for the innocents. These figures excluded 20% of the cases that were ruled inconclusive. When no inconclusive calls were allowed, the accuracy rate dropped down to 0.8 with 0.2 error rates for both the guilty and the innocent examinees. The importance of this research stems from its being a field study that due to the unique methodology was not subjected to weaknesses usually found in polygraph field validity studies. This method is applicable to other techniques of deception detection and with some necessary adaptations may be also to eyewitness situations.     

Components underlying sex offender treatment refusal: an exploratory analysis of the Treatment Refusal Scale—Sex Offender version

Abstract

Approximately half of sexual offenders in prison and community settings refuse to participate in sex offender treatment programmes; however, the reasons for this remain largely unexplored. This pilot study used the previously untested Treatment Refusal Scale—Sexual Offender Version in an English prison, with 72 adult males (63 treatment accepters and nine treatment refusers) imprisoned for sexual or sexually motivated offences. Principal factors analysis revealed three factors within the scale: “pressured to take part in programmes”; “fear of negative effects”; and “programme is not relevant to/appropriate for me”. Treatment refusers scored more highly than treatment accepters on the first and last components, while there was no statistically significant difference in the scores of the two groups on the “fear of negative effects” component. Suggestions for further development of the scale are discussed, along with the practice implications of these findings.     

Experiences of engaging in psychotherapeutic interventions for sexual offending behaviours: A meta-synthesis

Abstract

This meta-synthesis explores individuals' experiences of engaging in psychotherapeutic interventions for sexual offending. The findings of ten qualitative studies were integrated and five over-arching concepts emerged: (1) incentives and inhibitions: to engage or not to engage?; (2) help or hindrance: the impact of others in therapy; (3) the abused and the abuser: perspectives for transformation; (4) struggling and striving: dealing with distress and difficulties and (5) what works: inside and outside. A line of argument derived from these concepts is proposed as a framework for understanding sex offenders' experiences of therapy and highlights aspects of treatment programmes that need further exploration or emphasis. Using qualitative accounts can improve the responsiveness of treatment programmes, but such research is currently limited. Future qualitative studies and reviews could help further improve the effectiveness of treatment programmes, and thereby reduce the rate of sexual reoffending.     

Youth and active citizenship in Turkey: engagement,participation and emancipation

This article critically discusses the establishment of active citizenship in Turkey with a specific focus on young people. In particular, we concentrate on the emergence of different strategies regarding civic and political participation in Turkey, by looking at their relationship with civic and political engagement. The scope is to focus on the influence that various factors have in determining patterns of participation. The research and relative results are based on the narratives inherent to two opposite scenarios – that we defined constraints to engagement and participation and patterns of emancipation – that emerged during the interviews with youth activists of NGOs in Turkey.     

The Commons Select Committee System in the 2015–20 Parliament

The House of Commons select committees witnessed some of the most constructive political theatre of the 2010‐2015 Parliament. Recall Rupert Murdoch's public contrition, Margaret Hodge's assault on MNC tax evasion and Keith Vaz's timely interrogations of G4S, etc. The committees also embraced social media and adopted public engagement as a key task. These developments all reflect a newly emboldened system. In recent months, four reports have been published which reflect on these developments. They also look forward to the further substantial development of committee activity. The system thus sets sail with an abundance of specific suggestions, including ideas that could have far wider and more far‐reaching democratic implications.     

Come hell or high water: An investigation of the effects of a natural disaster on a local election

How is electoral support for incumbent candidates shaped by natural disasters? Do voters in districts newly recovering from a national disaster punish or reward incumbents for their response to the disaster when compared to their counterparts in unaffected districts? The City of Calgary is used here as a case study. On 20 June 2013, the Bow and Elbow rivers flooded in the Calgary, devastating 26 neighborhoods and displacing approximately 75,000 people, or 7 per cent of the city's population. Four months later, a municipal election was held. When analyzed as a natural experiment, results suggest that support for the incumbent mayor increased city-wide between the 2010 and the 2013 elections, but at a lower rate in areas that experienced residential flooding. However, the flood did not produce equivalent treatment and control groups, as flooded areas differ systematically from areas that were not flooded in ways key to the election outcome. When analyzed more conservatively, results show that the flood had no effect on incumbent support or voter turnout. Thus, this disaster introduces a note of caution into the literature examining the effects of natural disasters on electoral behavior.     

Ballot position and election results: Evidence from a natural experiment

Candidates listed first on the ballot paper regularly receive more votes than other candidates, but what role does ballot layout play in this connection? Experimental studies from first-past-the-post systems show that the ballot position effect is causal as the order of names functions as a cue to voters. Does this also hold for PR systems where voters may vote for a party instead of a specific candidate? We identify a natural experiment in Danish local and regional elections involving more than 10,000 candidates on 103 different ballot papers using ballot layout to study ballot position effects. We find indeed, the ballot position/layout has a causal effect on election results in PR systems. Our findings indicate that the empirical domain of ballot position and layout effects is much wider than suggested by previous research.     

The changing representation interface: democracy and direct contact with politicians

The interface between politicians and the electorate is a vital component of the infrastructure of democracy and politicians now have many more tools available to communicate and engage with the electorate. Direct contact between politicians and the electorate is associated with increased levels of civic engagement. In this article, we examine the responsiveness of politicians in the UK by conducting: (i) an innovative test of responses to an undecided voter's email and (ii) follow-up interviews with electoral candidates. We found that a majority of electoral candidates had an identifiable email address and more than half responded to our undecided voter's email. However, there were considerable differences in the content relevance of the responses. There were also very few follow-up emails or further contact from the electoral candidates, suggesting only limited evidence of an integrated communication strategy. Electoral candidates also expressed concerns about communicating in a way that was ‘on record’. The findings provide a unique insight into the dynamics of communication between politicians and the electorate and the changing nature of the representation interface. Whilst the Internet has the scope for more personalized and two-way communication and for electors to hold politicians to account, it seems that politicians are more focused on campaign advantage rather than renewing the representation interface.     

宁夏猪附红细胞体病的流行病学调查及治疗试验

对宁夏区猪附红细胞体病进行了流行病学调查。调查结果显示,发病区和非发病区(黄河灌区、中部干旱区、南部山区)的3个不同气候类型区猪附红细胞体感染率的不同与吸血昆虫的种类和数量有关。发病区、黄河灌区、中部干旱区和南部山区(六盘山阴湿地区)猪的感染率分别为100%、71．67%、36．67%和51．57%。发病区与非发病区差异极显著(P＜0．01)；发病区、黄河灌区在昆虫活动季节与昆虫越冬季节的猪附红细胞体感染率差异显著(P＜0．05)；中部干旱区、南部山区昆虫活动季节与昆虫越冬季节的差异不显著(P＞0．05)。体外药敏试验和临床治疗试验证明,庆大霉素、长效土霉素、强力霉素、地霉素、贝尼儿、青蒿素、磷酸伯胺喹啉对猪附红细胞体病皆有效,尤以磷酸伯胺喹啉、青蒿素和强力霉素疗效显著。     

Networks and political engagement of migrant organisations in five European cities

This article investigates networks and political actions by migrant organisations in five European cities. It examines how political opportunity structures moderate the impact of organisational networks on organisations' political contacts and protests using data from organisational surveys undertaken between 2005 and 2008 in Budapest, Lyon, Madrid, Milan and Zurich. Results suggest that the political context moderates the role that different types of networks have on mobilisation. It is found that migrant organisational networks may be sources compensating for the lack of contextual opportunities, thus fostering the use of protest by migrant organisations. However, migrant organisational networks can also favour the creation of political subcultures, marginalised from mainstream politics. Finally, migrant networks are likely to foster migrant organisations' political integration in multicultural contexts through conventional as well as non‐conventional politics.