贵州省少数民族自治地方人口素质研究

了解贵州少数民族自治地方人口素质的现状,分析形成的原因,提出解决问题的措施,促进贵州省少数民族自治地方人口素质的提高。     

城市化视野下的少数民族传统文化与民族意识--以广西百色市壮族为例

城市化对我国少数民族传统文化和民族意识的发展的影响主要有两种可能一是少数民族文化与汉族文化之间的差异缩小,少数民族传统文化逐渐消失,民族意识弱化;二是少数民族传统文化继续发展,民族意识增强.无论怎样的发展趋势,都将影响到我国民族关系的发展走向.     

Discrimination and ethnic conflict: a dyadic analysis of politically-excluded groups in sub-Saharan Africa

ABSTRACT

The literature on political exclusion and conflict tends to treat grievance-based mechanisms with broad-brush strokes and does not differentiate between types of political exclusion. This study disaggregates politically-excluded groups into two subgroups: groups that experience political discrimination from the state, and groups without political power that are not explicitly discriminated against. We posit that discriminated groups are more likely to experience grievances and therefore are more prone to conflict than excluded groups that are not actively discriminated against. We further posit that the effect of discrimination on conflict is moderated by interactions with economic inequalities and the share of elites. Using dyadic data for 155 ethnic groups in 28 Sub-Saharan African countries, we find that among politically-excluded groups it is indeed discriminated groups that are responsible for most of the association between political exclusion and conflict. Groups that face active, intentional, and targeted discrimination by the state are significantly more likely to be involved in conflict than excluded groups who do not face this explicit form of discrimination. Additionally, we find that discriminated groups who also experience economic inequalities are less likely to engage in conflict, whilst an increased presence of elites within discriminated groups can precipitate the chances of conflict.     

Efficiency over generosity? Evidence of electoral accountability from typhoon dayoff in Taiwan

ABSTRACT

Even though voters may irrationally blame the incumbent for natural disasters, democratic accountability can still hold if voters also reward the government for good responses. This article approaches the response-reward question by exploring the election impact of typhoon dayoff decisions in Taiwan. County mayors are responsible for deciding the dayoffs before a typhoon, so voters can easily and immediately observe the quality of the mayor's decision and fully attribute the outcome to him. Results combining 2005–2014 weather, election, and ten survey datasets show that a correct dayoff, which a dayoff was announced and the storm was tomorrow is harmfully strong, can significantly increase the incumbent's vote share. The effect is larger in the election year. Meanwhile, Taiwanese voters also slightly reward the incumbent for a bonus dayoff, which the storm is unexpectedly weak. Evidence also shows that mayors exploit the incumbent advantage by announcing more correct and bonus dayoffs.     

少数民族地区高校英语翻转课堂:基于POA理论的探讨

众所周知,长期以来中国英语课堂教学"学用分离"问题较为严重。这个问题在少数民族地区尤为突出,因为少数民族地区高校的生源英语基础普遍薄弱,特别表现在英语听说和语法掌握等方面。产出导向法POA理论体系针对的正是中国学生"学用分离"的问题。文章基于POA理论,在设计和实施翻转课堂时,要求在课堂教学中,输出驱动后,一定要使相应的输入与输出任务尽可能精准对接,才能有效促成输出的顺利完成,从而有效地解决"学用分离"的问题。     

From ethnic exclusion to terrorism? The case of radical Basque nationalism

ABSTRACT

This article reflects upon the beginnings and development of radical Basque nationalism in light of its ethnic exclusion criteria. We argue that the existence of a tradition of “strong” alterity does not necessarily lead to the appearance of tendencies favoring the use of violence to confront the other. Without rejecting the importance of a discourse of hate proceeding from the past, such tendencies are due more to a combination of the historical context and individual and group decisions. It is important to bear this in mind to underscore the responsibilities of those who were not satisfied with constructing the image of a despicable enemy, but instead decided to employ violence to solve the problem that the latter might cause.     

Rural informalities and forest squatters in the reserved forests of Assam,India

It has now been well established that forests in South Asia are postcolonial political zones. In Assam, in northeast India this was accomplished through the colonial project of converting jungles into Reserved Forests. Using the politics of dokhol (“to grab or occupy by force”) as an entry point, this article examines the comparative epistemologies of squatting and informality in urban and rural contexts. My intent is to unpack the everyday practice, maintenance, and sustenance of dokhol within the reserved forests of Bodo Territorial Autonomous District. This entails an extension of existing scholarship on formal-informal dichotomies in relation to rural squatters, in particular those on forestland. I do so by combining an ethnographic study of dokhol by rural squatters with three influential strands of critical scholarship on urban squatting, namely Partha Chatterjee’s “political society,” Asaf Bayat’s “quiet encroachment,” and Ananya Roy’s take on planning and deregulation. This article advances the case of rural informalities and opens a dialogue between the two forms of informalities – rural and urban, especially in the context of South Asia.     

Forecasting the 2015 British election through party popularity functions

To forecast the May 7, 2015 British General Election, we develop party popularity models based on Continuous Monitoring Survey (CMS) data from April 2004 to February 2015. Our models predict party vote shares three months prior to the election, using previous support levels, national economic evaluations, macro-partisanship and political measures. Our Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) methodology allows us to predict support for the Tories, Labour, Liberal Democrats and “other” parties, separately, yet simultaneously, by constraining total support for all parties to 100%. Our model, estimated with data from February 2015, predicts that Labour will win the highest vote share in Great Britain, but that no party will win a majority of seats in parliament.     

Keynes,Friedman, or Monnet? Explaining parliamentary voting behaviour on fiscal aid for euro area member states

This article investigates the determinants of parliamentary support for international fiscal aid. Departing from the literature on presidential systems, it analyses an exemplary case of a parliamentary system, Germany. Two theoretical accounts are distinguished. The first perceives MPs as policy-seekers and focuses on the positioning of government and opposition parties and individual MPs on an economic left?right and a pro- versus anti-EU dimension. The second regards MPs as vote-seekers and presumes an electoral district connection. The statistical analysis of a new data-set containing information on 17 Bundestag roll-call votes from 2009 to 2015 finds support for the first account: voting in favour of fiscal aid measures is mainly driven by government membership and EU support. By contrast, neither economic ideologies, nor district or mandate characteristics influence support for fiscal aid. The article contributes to a growing literature on the domestic politics of international political economy.     

Winds of Change: Voter Blame and Storm Gudrun in the 2006 Swedish Parliamentary Election

Can a natural disaster shift long-standing party support for the long-term? Studies of political behavior indicate that, as elections approach, voters punish or credit governments based on their responses to severe weather phenomena. It may still be considered an open question, however, if poor crisis response could trigger more durable shifts in long-standing party support. I provide empirical evidence suggesting that it could. I exploit a crucial case for the study of change in party support, Storm Gudrun (Erwin), to examine long lasting punishment effects over crisis response. The estimated effect is of a magnitude that equals the largest block-transfer of voters in Swedish history and can be seen over three parliamentary elections (2006, 2010 and 2014).