USING RANDOM JUDGE ASSIGNMENTS TO ESTIMATE THE EFFECTS OF INCARCERATION AND PROBATION ON RECIDIVISM AMONG DRUG OFFENDERS*

Most prior studies of recidivism have used observational data to estimate the causal effect of imprisonment or probation on the probability that a convicted individual is rearrested after release. Few studies have taken advantage of the fact that, in some jurisdictions, defendants are assigned randomly to judges who vary in sentencing tendencies. This study investigates whether defendants who are assigned randomly to more punitive judges have different recidivism probabilities than defendants who are assigned to relatively lenient judges. We track 1,003 defendants charged with drug-related offenses who were assigned randomly to nine judicial calendars between June 1, 2002 and May 9, 2003. Judges on these calendars meted out sentences that varied substantially in terms of prison and probation time. We tracked defendants using court records across a 4-year period after the disposition of their cases to determine whether they subsequently were rearrested. Our results indicate that randomly assigned variations in prison and probation time have no detectable effect on rates of rearrest. The findings suggest that, at least among those facing drug-related charges, incarceration and supervision seem not to deter subsequent criminal behavior.     

社区矫正试点工作的突破、创新和总结——对社区矫正试点工作的反思

法律制约与法律突破之间的冲突是社区矫正试点中的基本矛盾，创新和总结是试点工作的重心。现阶段试点中存在全局范围过窄、局部规模扩张、突破创新不足、工作缺乏独立性等偏失。社区矫正试点工作的目的是获取试点经验．而非急于收获矫正效果。试点工作应坚持法律制约与法律突破相统一、社区矫正与社区安全并重、符合国情、创新与总结相结合等原则。扩大全局试点范围、控制局部试点规模、深化突破、创新与总结是社区矫正试点工作的中心任务，试点阶段不宜过早启动社区矫正立法。     

Missing the target and missing the point: ‘successful’ random assignment but misleading results

As the use of field experiments in criminology increases, discussions have focused on methods for achieving randomization, correcting for flawed randomization, increasing power and addressing treatment implementation problems in the interventions under study. This paper explores what may be a fairly common and basic challenge for field experimentation: the problem of attrition before random assignment in the targeted population—when an experiment may be well conducted, except that it ‘misses the target’ for a variety of possible reasons and produces experimental results that may be of questionable validity. To illustrate this basic, but seldom discussed, phenomenon, this paper draws on the examples of 13 field experiments by the author and colleagues as a body of case studies to assess the nature and magnitude of pre-assignment attrition and its possible implications for experimental findings.

The Dynamic Process Tracing Environment (DPTE) as a Tool for Studying Political Communication

The dynamic process tracing environment (DPTE) is a unique and flexible tool permitting researchers to study information search and decision making in various manners. This article describes the rationale behind the system, some history of how it has revolutionized the study of voter decision making in elections, and some of the principles of design within the system.     

宪法变通与地方试验

"良性违宪"的出现,是因为宪法和中央法律过多限制了地方自主权。宪法是一部保障而非限制权利的基本法。宪法的根本目的不是通过制度性规定剥夺地方尝试的自由,更不是限制人民的基本自由,而是为所有人保障一个权利底线。在这个底线之上,地方政府可以自由探索对满足当地需要而言最有效的途径。要从根本上解决"良性违宪"所带来的困惑,就必须转变有关中央与地方关系的思维,从制度上保障地方试验的顺利进行。     

浅谈垂直定向反射照相技术在实验教学中的应用

利用定向反射镜进行垂直定向反射照相,是近年来出现的照相新技术。它使用方便,对潜在手印显现效果好,在实验教学中,学生在使用定向反射镜过程中取得一定效果,但应用中也碰到一些问题值得探讨。     

大江健三郎小说语言实验探微

语言是小说的基本组成因素,是作家个性的体现。大江在文体和叙事上的不懈探索,表现了他对传统小说文体和言说方式所带来的知识危机与意识形态驯化的焦虑。大江的文体和叙事的实验是对文坛上占统治地位的话语权力秩序的挑战。大江对小说语言孜孜不倦的探索,体现了他主张文学多元化、个性化的艺术追求。     

Surveys,Experiments, and the Landscape of International Political Economy

The contributions to this issue show that surveys and experiments offer exciting new tools for doing empirical research in international political economy (IPE). This essay cautions that the utility of these tools is not self-evident: Neither appeals to microfoundations nor to methodological individualism in constructing explanations for social phenomena themselves recommend an embrace of surveys or experiments. The field of IPE should worry that the focus on surveys and experiments will constrain not just methodological choice but also theoretical breadth, limiting the field’s ability to conceive of what theories are admissible in learning about the global political economy.     

RESTRICTIVE DETERRENT EFFECTS OF A WARNING BANNER IN AN ATTACKED COMPUTER SYSTEM

System trespassing by computer intruders is a growing concern among millions of Internet users. However, little research has employed criminological insights to explore the effectiveness of security means to deter unauthorized access to computer systems. Drawing on the deterrence perspective, we employ a large set of target computers built for the sole purpose of being attacked and conduct two independent experiments to investigate the influence of a warning banner on the progression, frequency, and duration of system trespassing incidents. In both experiments, the target computers (86 computers in the first experiment and 502 computers in the second) were set either to display or not to display a warning banner once intruders had successfully infiltrated the systems; 1,058 trespassing incidents were observed in the first experiment and 3,768 incidents in the second. The findings reveal that although a warning banner does not lead to an immediate termination or a reduction in the frequency of trespassing incidents, it significantly reduces their duration. Moreover, we find that the effect of a warning message on the duration of repeated trespassing incidents is attenuated in computers with a large bandwidth capacity. These findings emphasize the relevance of restrictive deterrence constructs in the study of system trespassing.     

AN EXPLICIT TEST OF PLEA BARGAINING IN THE “SHADOW OF THE TRIAL”

Bargaining in the “shadow of the trial,” which hinges on the expectations of trial outcomes, is the primary theory used by noncriminologists to explain variation in the plea discount given to defendants who plead guilty. This study develops a formal mathematical representation of the theory and then presents an empirical test of the theory using an innovative online survey with responses to a hypothetical case from 1,585 prosecutors, defense attorneys, and judges. The key outcomes are the probability that the defendant will be convicted at trial, the sentence for the defendant if convicted, and the best plea that the respondent would accept or offer. Variation in the outcomes is created through experimental variation in the information presented to the respondents. Structural regression models are estimated to fit the formal theoretical models, and the instrumental variables method is used to correct for measurement error in the estimate for probability of conviction. The data support the basic shadow model, with minor modifications, for only prosecutors and defense attorneys. Controlling for the characteristics of the individual actors and their jurisdictions adds explanatory value to the model, although these control variables did not affect the key coefficients from the shadow model.