恐怖主义问题研究

恐怖主义对国际社会的安全与稳定构成了严重的威胁,已经成为影响地区与世界安全局势的顽疾。恐怖主义的核心特性是追求政治目的与利益并实施或威胁使用暴力。恐怖主义常假借宗教名义,或以极端民族主义、极端意识形态为其思想基础。现代社会对恐怖主义的萌生与发展极具影响,为恐怖主义提供存在的客观环境。反恐怖主义必须着眼于事前预防恐怖主义行为的萌生和事后侦查打击恐怖组织和恐怖分子两大方面,确立反恐怖主义的原则与机制,构建反恐怖情报网络,强化反恐怖侦破工作,加强反恐怖队伍建设。     

The Nouvelle Droite in Portugal: a new strategy for the radical right in the transition from authoritarianism to democracy

Marchi examines how the French Nouvelle Droite (ND) was introduced into Portugal at the end of the Salazarist regime and during the transition to democracy. The relevance of the Portuguese case lies in the fact that the early diffusion of the ND in Europe coincided with the profound crisis of the radical right in Portugal as it faced the liberalization of the authoritarian regime and repression during the revolutionary transition. For that reason the far right in Portugal, in comparative terms, can be seen to have been subject to historical constraints quite different from those in Spain and other Western European democracies. Marchi describes the groups on the Portuguese radical right, and certain figures who were inspired by the ND and disseminated its ideas in Portugal. His analysis of their main publications, their statements and the media campaign to promote the ND from the end of the 1960s to the beginning of the 1980s highlights the different reasons for and ways in which Portuguese radicals engaged and dealt with the ND. Marchi also looks at the reactions of the national right-wing milieu to the spread of ND ideas. As part of his paper’s contribution to comparative studies on the transnational radical right, it also provides new evidence, derived from the Portuguese case, of the way in which one of the most important schools of right-wing thought at the end of the twentieth century has influenced extreme-right milieux all over Europe. In light of Tamir Bar-On's analysis of the ND's cultural and pan-European impact, the findings presented here confirm its transnational character while drawing on this and other cases from southern Europe to question the French movement's long-term effectiveness in reorienting the culture of the right-wing milieu.     

对马克思恩格斯关于犯罪问题论述的新解读

本文突破刑法理论界对马克思、恩格斯关于犯罪问题论述的通说观点,结合特定的历史条件,对马克思、恩格斯关于犯罪问题的论述进行了新的探讨：（1）恩格斯在《英国工人阶级的状况》中封犯罪的阐述,是从无产阶级成长的过程角度来评析,犯罪是工人早期用来反抗资本压迫的行为方式,旨在分析资本的残酷剥削和压迫是产生犯罪的原因;（2）马克思、恩格斯在《德意志意识形态》有关对犯罪的论述,是从政治的角度封犯罪本质的揭示,即反抗统治关系的斗争,并非从刑法学意义上对犯罪概念的界定。     

The dark side of the German ‘welcome culture’: investigating the causes behind attacks on refugees in 2015

In 2015, Germany experienced a record high influx of refugees – and received international praise for its ‘welcome culture’. At the same time, however, attacks on refugees rose to an alarming level. This article describes the distribution of these attacks and probes their causes, using detailed socioeconomic and political data while modelling a hierarchical data structure. Controlling for further relevant factors taken from the extant literature, the analysis first tests whether the strength of extreme right political parties plays a role and, second, it models a contagion effect, taking into account spatial as well as temporal proximity. The findings suggest that the strength of right-wing parties in a district considerably boosts the probability of attacks on refugees in that area. They also corroborate the idea of behavioural contagion. The set of social-structural variables employed as controls yielded only limited explanatory power.     

Theorizing the Expansion of the Boko Haram Insurgency in Nigeria

This research investigates the dramatic expansion of the Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria in the last few years. Militant activity has expanded in terms of frequency and severity of attacks, geographic scope, target selection, and strategies used. The evolution of the group and the trajectory of violence are best explained through four overlapping theoretical strands. These include the growing fragmentation of the movement, development of strategic ties with Al Qaeda affiliates, strong-armed counterterrorism operations that further radicalized the movement, and exploitation of the porous border area that separates Nigeria from its northern neighbors.     

“伊斯兰国”对中亚地区的安全威胁:迷思还是现实?

对于"伊斯兰国"是否会对中亚地区安全构成威胁以及这种威胁的程度如何,国内外学术界的看法存在诸多分歧。"伊斯兰国"通过招募中亚地区的人员和对各国的边界进行袭扰,并通过意识形态宣传扩大其价值观在中亚地区的影响力等方式,的确对该地区安全形势带来了一定的冲击。不过,"伊斯兰国"对中亚安全形势的影响是有限的。这主要是因为,"伊斯兰国"在国际反恐联盟的打击下,地面作战部队被限制在叙利亚一伊拉克境内,无法在中亚地区开展直接的攻击。此外,由于中亚伊斯兰特殊的发展经历,使"伊斯兰国"的意识形态在当地缺乏群众基础。这些因素,决定了"伊斯兰国"对中亚安全的影响主要体现在促进该地区部分极端势力思想的进一步激进化或激励部分恐怖分子发起"独狼式"恐怖活动等。随着"伊斯兰国"的战场失利,部分"圣战"分子回流中亚,需要对"伊斯兰国"与中亚安全之间的关联性予以更多关注,并尽早研究对策。     

报复社会型个人极端暴力案件研究

报复社会型个人极端暴力犯罪是由单个行为人策划、筹备、实施,以报复社会制造公众恐慌为目的,企图伤害不特定多数人,在同一时空区域内突发,手段特别残忍,后果特别严重的暴力犯罪。通过对近期国内此类案件的整理与分析发现,犯罪人核心表现为仇恨情绪,情绪的背后是未被满足的缺失需要,由于扭曲的认知使得犯罪人提出了不正常的诉求,最终导致需要不能被满足,结果不断强化仇恨情绪,最终导致犯案。本研究根据犯罪人的作案特点提出对重点人员、时空的防控策略。     

Institutional Grievances and Right-Wing Extremism: Voting for Golden Dawn in Greece

This article examines the effect of institutional grievances on extreme right voting by using an original survey to analyse voter support for the Greek Golden Dawn (GD). The article first examines various theories of extreme-right voting and then develops the concept of institutional grievances. Using structural equation modeling, it shows that that the strongest correlates of GD voting are those capturing institutional grievances. Economic grievances have a limited and cultural grievances a moderate effect on GD voting. The article compares the findings with those of the broader literature on extreme-right voting. It concludes with some suggestions on how to link the findings with broader developments in Europe.     

极端犯罪的形成机制及其预防与应对

极端犯罪的共同心理现象是行为性质极其严重；诱发因素与行为及结果相比明显缺乏逻辑联系；犯罪人经历过早期的挫折及心理创伤有严重情绪积累。极端犯罪行为人心理有共同本质即需要获得对生命、财产的控制权。其形成有内在因素，也有外在因素。极端犯罪行为的预防与应对包括社会和警察两个方面：即全社会需要对极端犯罪行为加强预防；警察对极端犯罪行为也要有特别的应对。