期货收益率极端波动离散间隔的实证研究

本文基于极值理论,以沪铜、大连大豆和郑州硬麦期货为研究对象,应用最大信息熵原理、广义极值分布和K－S拟合检验,实证分析了我国商品期货收益率极端波动的时间间隔的统计分布特征。引入离散的时间间隔来刻画极端波动特征在学术上是个新的尝试。实证结果表明：极端波动的确定是与阈值紧密联系的;我国商品期货收益率的极端波动间隔时间服从广义极值分布;期货收益率极端波动时间间隔序列具有集聚性;运用条件期望值--波动模型预测极端波动间隔是可行的。这些成果为监管层度量极端波动强度和控制风险提供了有效的方法。     

Motives and legacies behind 2008-2009 Hungarian Roma murders and apologies

This research analyzes as hate crimes the 2008–9 Hungarian Roma mass-murders by extreme nationalists. Pertinent questions are: ‘What motivated the Roma Murders?’ and ‘How do these motives intertwine with cultural-historical legacies to affect both the murders and later official apologies?’ In examining motives, the essay shows how cultural myths of an ill-fated nation and collective memory of real historic tragedies made Hungarians receptive to an extreme nationalist ideology that transforms a national vision of tragic fate into a vision of a victorious future (Volksgeist). How Hungarian cultural-historical heritage assigns vulnerability and disability to the Roma is explored, and why assigning the same vulnerability to victims when Hungarians apologize for their complicity in the Roma murders cannot restore social justice. The essay adds to previous research the identification of common dynamics in both the hate crimes and later apologies, demanding that a very specific apology addressed to the Roma–as equal citizens–should follow two apologies that position the Roma as less than equal Hungarians.     

Institutional Grievances and Right-Wing Extremism: Voting for Golden Dawn in Greece

This article examines the effect of institutional grievances on extreme right voting by using an original survey to analyse voter support for the Greek Golden Dawn (GD). The article first examines various theories of extreme-right voting and then develops the concept of institutional grievances. Using structural equation modeling, it shows that that the strongest correlates of GD voting are those capturing institutional grievances. Economic grievances have a limited and cultural grievances a moderate effect on GD voting. The article compares the findings with those of the broader literature on extreme-right voting. It concludes with some suggestions on how to link the findings with broader developments in Europe.