亚洲国家汇率制度变革的教训及启示

人民币汇率问题是一个敏感的问题。人民币汇率能否稳定,将会直接影响到我国能否保持一个稳定的改革环境,能否保持较高的经济增长速度,能否提高企业特别是出口型企业产品的市场竞争力,事关我国的经济发展和民族利益。保持人民币汇率的基本稳定是我国促进经济发展的现实选择。之所以作出这一现实选择,主要原因在于我国现在不具备人民币升值的基本条件。尽管我国经济处于快速发展的阶段,在世界贸易中的地位逐步提高,但我国毕竟是一个发展中的大国,总体上不具备使人民币升值的雄厚物质基础和经济实力。货币的升值要在综合考虑到各方面的影响后再作出决定,切不可从考虑经济以外的因素来让本国货币升值。     

关于人民币升值预期下我国货币政策有关问题的思考

在人民币升值预期下,中国要扩大对外开放,从中国自身的利益角度出发,应该实施由市场供求决定的灵活的汇率制度。政府不要干预过多,否则不可能存在比较独立的货币政策。因此,在我国建立一个有效的货币政策体系前,必须保持汇率稳定,以减少风险和波动。     

互联网普及程度对非正规就业的影响分析

研究基于 2002-2016 年的全国省级面板数据,使用固定效应模型检验了互联网普及程度对非正 规就业的影响,发现互联网普及程度对非正规就业比例有显著的负向影响,互联网的普及提高了社会整体的就 业质量。进一步使用滞后一期互联网普及程度作为工具变量,两阶归结果表明上述结论仍然成立。此外,为了 排除《劳动合同法》对研究结论的影响,本研究使用《劳动合同法》实施以前的样本进行检验,发现互联网普 及程度对非正规就业比例的负向影响仍然显著。     

Gary Becker’s economics of population: reproduction and neoliberal biopolitics

This paper argues that Chicago School economist Gary Becker’s theory of fertility underpins contemporary rationalities of global population governance. Drawing on feminist critiques of biopolitics, the paper proposes reproduction as a missing link that ties Becker’s homo economicus to the aggregate question of population. It argues that Becker’s work challenged macroeconomic theories of fertility by figuring reproduction, and hence population patterns, as governed by the personal utility-maximizing decisions of individuals. It further examines how his approach to fertility inaugurated reproductive decision-making as a regulatory node of population quality, one also tied to a particular sex, race and class politics. Finally, the paper briefly analyses the relationship between Becker’s contribution and today’s focus on women’s reproductive and productive decision-making in population governance in the context of development.     

挑战与应对：全面二孩政策下的女性就业权保障

本文利用人力资本理论、职业生涯理论和统计歧视理论,通过2017年、2016年和2014年完成的48例个案访谈、4次小组座谈,2010年对全国7573例已婚职业女性的问卷调查,分析生育尤其是全面二孩政策对女性就业权的影响,生育保障对女性就业权的保障作用以及企业积极应对全面二孩政策的经验。最后,从两种生产理论出发,结合国内外女性就业权保障的经验和积极措施,探索全面二孩政策下女性就业权保障的政策与措施。     

When Do Low Roll Rates Indicate Party Influence? Evidence from Counterfactual Roll Rates

A simulation-based counterfactual is one way to solve the observational equivalence challenge that seemingly “partisan” majority-party roll rates can be observed in the absence of any actual party influence. We simulate no-partisan-agenda-control counterfactual roll rates and apply them across sessions of the US House of Representatives and 86 state legislative chambers to evaluate the extent to which observed roll rates provide evidence for party influence on the legislative agenda. After assessing and controlling for the baseline risk of majority-party rolls, there is significant evidence of party influence on roll rates in some state legislatures, particularly those with rules that grant parties more agenda power, and in the post-Reed’s-rules House of Representatives. Institutional rules interact with the (simulated) risk of a majority roll to shape observed roll rates across chambers and across time.     

Exchange Rate Regime,Central Bank Independence,and Political Business Cycles in Brazil

This article examines policy consequences of electoral cycles and exchange rate regime choices in Brazil. The literature on opportunistic political business cycles maintains that governments adopt expansionary economic policies before elections to mobilize voters’ support. However, research findings in Latin America based on the theory has been inconclusive. I argue that the lack of conclusive evidence in Latin America stems from measurement errors common in the use of cross-national aggregate data. Using Brazil’s monthly data from 1985 to 2006, this article shows that there are electorally induced fiscal cycles under fixed and crawling peg exchange rate regimes and electorally induced monetary cycles under floating exchange rates only when the nation’s central bank is not independent. Indeed, accounting for Brazil’s unique economic contingencies and longitudinal variations in the de facto central bank independence, its public policy behavior remarkably resembles that of the more affluent, economically stable OECD countries.

计件工资问题与集体协商技术性对策

计件工资的秘密在于资方以保证一定的利润和保证能雇到一定的工人为前提,工人并不知道计件工资的秘密,反而把计件工资看作为真正体现"按劳分配"、"不劳不得,多劳多得"的工资制度。由此,产生制度性地规避最低工资、规避加班加点工资、规避特殊情况下支付工资等问题。解决计件工资规避劳动法规的关键并不在于加强政府监管,而在于确立工人的"话语权",即进行有效的,有针对性的集体谈判。因此,应设计工会进行计件工资行业或企业工资集体协商的操作性技术要点。     

关于心理干预在提高助学贷款还款率方面的思考

国家助学贷款在解决贫困大学生困难和维护社会稳定方面起到积极作用，但由于借贷学生违约率较高，影响了国家助学贷款制度的正常运行，其中不仅有经济方面的原因，还有心理方面的原因。在充分了解学生的心理感受和心理问题的基础上，利用心理干预的各种手段和措施，妥善引导学生正确的价值取向，促进学生健全人格的形成，让心理干预在提高助学贷款还款率方面发挥应有的效用。