Demographic socialization and reproductive behavior in a transitional context: a macro–micro perspective

This paper analyzes the impact of individuals’ socialization in a given demographic context on their later reproductive behavior in 19th century Geneva. To assess this socialization effect on the fertility of first generation immigrants, I combine family reconstitution data with Coale’s aggregate indexes of marital fertility. I then run two-level Poisson regression models predicting age-specific fertility rates as a function of individual characteristics at the lower level and as a function of province-level fertility at the higher level. The results show a strong socialization effect among couples who were already married when arriving in Geneva, whereas among immigrants who arrived as singles and who got married in Geneva the impact of demographic socialization turns out much weaker.     

Domestic servants and diffusion of fertility control in Flanders, 1830–1930

This article uses a mixed method approach to analyse whether urban domestic service functioned as a diffusion channel in the fertility decline. The central hypothesis is that nineteenth century female, rural-born domestic servants were influenced by the reproductive habits of their middle and upper-class employers, who were vanguards in the adoption of family size limitation within marriage. This happened via a process of social learning, a mechanism of social influence in heterogeneous social networks. Female domestic servants are an excellent research population to study reproductive ideas and behaviour because they were large in number and had a particular social position in between the working and upper classes and in between rural and urban environments. This paper is unique in its use of qualitative information to analyse social fertility diffusion and in the incorporation of geographical mobility in the statistical part.     

Women's status and fertility in rural India

This article examines the relationship between women's status and fertility in India in the current (third) phase of the Indian fertility transition that began in the period 1900–1920. Variables used in the study include caste, occupation, and education of husband and wife, educational status of the household, role of female in the society, autonomy in decision-making, and interaction with and exposure to mass media. Women's status is conceptualized at the micro-level using the household as a unit; and the macro-level using society as a unit. Given the low levels of female literacy and participation in salaried employment, variables such as caste, education, and occupation of husband have been included in the computation of women's status. The variables, age-specific fertility rate, fecundity, and the number of children ever born, have been used as measures of fertility. Among other findings, the study reveals that there is a difference of approximately two births in the total fertility rate between low status and high status groups of women, and that there is an inverse relationship between the autonomy in decision-making and the level of fertility.     

Sub-prime mortgage lending: a cultural economy

Abstract

Developing cultural economists’ concerns with the assembly of agency in financial markets, agency in sub-prime mortgage lending in the United States is shown to have been made up through calculative devices of risk. Credit reporting and scoring provided for the targeting, sorting, pricing and governing of customers in terms of risk. The securitization of mortgages into risk-structured financial instruments made possible extended lending. Interest-only adjustable rate mortgage products called up mortgagors who, as leveraged investors, embraced risk in a rising property market. The current sub-prime mortgage crisis is understood in critical terms as a moment when the contradictions of these risk devices and their incapacity to capture the uncertain future have come to the surface, and agency in sub-prime lending has been disassembled. Cultural economy is thus shown to make a distinctive contribution to the politicization of sub-prime that stresses the ambiguous politics of calculation.     

The Development and Application of Random Match Probabilities to Firearm and Toolmark Identification

The field of firearms and toolmark analysis has encountered deep scrutiny of late, stemming from a handful of voices, primarily in the law and statistical communities. While strong scrutiny is a healthy and necessary part of any scientific endeavor, much of the current criticism leveled at firearm and toolmark analysis is, at best, misinformed and, at worst, punditry. One of the most persistent criticisms stems from the view that as the field lacks quantified random match probability data (or at least a firm statistical model) with which to calculate the probability of a false match, all expert testimony concerning firearm and toolmark identification or source attribution is unreliable and should be ruled inadmissible. However, this critique does not stem from the hard work of actually obtaining data and performing the scientific research required to support or reject current findings in the literature. Although there are sound reasons (described herein) why there is currently no unifying probabilistic model for the comparison of striated and impressed toolmarks as there is in the field of forensic DNA profiling, much statistical research has been, and continues to be, done to aid the criminal justice system. This research has thus far shown that error rate estimates for the field are very low, especially when compared to other forms of judicial error. The first purpose of this paper is to point out the logical fallacies in the arguments of a small group of pundits, who advocate a particular viewpoint but cloak it as fact and research. The second purpose is to give a balanced review of the literature regarding random match probability models and statistical applications that have been carried out in forensic firearm and toolmark analysis.     

The Diagnostic Value of Quantitative Assessment of Diatom Test for Drowning: An Analysis of 128 Water‐related Death Cases using Microwave Digestion‐Vacuum Filtration‐Automated Scanning Electron Microscopy

The value of diatom test for the diagnosis of drowning remains controversial. The conventional forensic diatom test with low sensitivity is not a useful tool to provide accurate information about diatom in the tissues and organs. To improve the sensitivity of the diatom test, we developed a novel method called the Microwave Digestion‐Vacuum Filtration‐Automated Scanning Electron Microscopy (MD‐VF‐Auto SEM) method which resulted in a high recovery of diatoms. In this article, we analyzed 128 water‐related death cases. Our results showed that the MD‐VF‐Auto SEM method could achieve a much higher positive rate (0.97) in drowning cases. Large amounts of diatoms are retained, even concentrated, in the lung tissues during the intense breathing movement in drowning process. This might be useful for the diagnosis of drowning. Our research indicates that the MD‐VF‐Auto SEM method would be a valuable methodology in the study of diatom test for the forensic community.     

低贷款利率、高存贷利差与房价

文章研究了我国利率对房价的影响,但与以往研究不同,文章重点考察了贷款利率和存贷款利差与房价的关系。研究表明,我国1998年以来贷款利率持续走低和存贷款利差持续扩大对于房价的上涨有着明显的推动作用。在贷款利率下降的同时,存贷款利差不断扩大,激励金融机构增加对房地产等领域的贷款,从而进一步刺激了房价的上涨。文章发现,缩小存贷款利率差对房价产生的影响要远远大于提高贷款利率的影响,而且模型回归还表明房价变化有着很强的惯性。根据以上分析我们认为,要抑制房价过度上涨需要从两个方面采取措施：一是在提高贷款利率的同时,缩小存贷款利率差;二是坚持调控政策,打破房价上涨的预期。     

“发展陷阱”的形成原因分析——兼论中国经济落入发展陷阱的必然性

陷入“发展陷阱”之前的追赶型国家,往往会出现以美元计量的人均名义GDP增长率快于以本币计量的人均实际GDP增长率,这实际上也就是国际相对成本的上升和国际相对竞争力的下降,国内外市场因此会不断被更低收入国家蚕食;人均美元收入的快速提高产生的对生活品质的追求,会导致大量有效需求向发达国家转移。这些表现在企业收支上,也就是成本的提高与收入的减少;在国家层面则表现为外贸收支逆差增加和外汇储备减少或外债增加,由此落入“发展陷阱”。我国目前可能正处在该陷阱的入口。     

人民币汇率变动对中美贸易结构收支的影响——基于SITC分类标准的实证分析

人民币汇率变动能否解决中美双边贸易失衡问题一直是国内外学者研究与争论的焦点。实证分析表明,人民币汇率的水平变动无法起到调节中美两国贸易收支的作用,但适度增加汇率波动弹性有助于缓解贸易失衡。因此,只有消除对人民币升值的预期、进行经济结构调整以及改善外商直接投资的流向,才能从根本上恢复中美之间的贸易平衡。     

大鼠死后肌肉电导率与腐败程度的关系

目的分析大鼠死后肌肉电导率(electrical conductivity,EC)、肉类食品腐败程度指标挥发性盐基氮(total volatile basic nitrogen,TVB-N)与死亡时间(postmortem interval,PMI)的关系,探讨EC作为尸体肌肉腐败程度评价指标的可行性,为该法用于PMI推断奠定理论基础。方法健康SD大鼠颈椎脱臼处死后,保存在28℃环境中,于死后不同时间点提取大鼠后肢肌肉组织,用去离子水制成质量浓度为0.1 g/m L的肌肉浸渍液,并测量所得浸渍液的EC值和TVB-N含量。分析EC(x_1)与TVB-N(x_2)的相关性,建立二者关系的回归方程;分析两指标与PMI的相关性,并分别建立两指标与PMI(y)关系的回归方程。结果肌肉浸渍液EC、TVB-N随PMI的变化曲线走势基本相同;EC与TVB-N呈显著直线正相关,回归方程为x_2=0.14 x1-164.91(R~2=0.982);EC、TVB-N与PMI显著相关,回归方程分别为y=19.38 x_1~3-370.68 x_1~2+2 526.03 x1-717.06(R~2=0.994),y=2.56 x_2~3-48.39 x_2~2+330.60 x_2-255.04(R2=0.997)。结论大鼠死后肌肉EC与TVB-N变化趋势一致,可以作为反映尸体肌肉腐败程度的指标,为腐败尸体PMI推断的相关研究提供方法。