The Shadow Price of Social Change and Its Evaluation

This paper analyzes the “shadow price” of social transformation. For the first time, an attempt was made to determine the approaches to measuring this value with regard to nonmarket phenomena and processes, and to apply these approaches in an empirical analysis, based on a representative survey in Russia (N = 1,000) using experimental situations.

Specifically, it quantitatively evaluates (1) the degree of divergence between the real and the ideal structure of the time budget of several important domains of social life; (2) the ratio of social ills to social benefits; (3) individual public welfare functions; and (4) the social cost, legitimated by citizens, of reproducing two fundamental public goods: “the capacity to maintain ‘superpower’ status” and “the well-being of the future generations.”

The authors introduce and operationalize the novel concept of the socially suboptimal product of labor, that is, the product resulting from alienated (or unwilling) labor, and conversely, the product that could potentially result from using unutilized willing labor. In doing so we support the idea of distinguishing productive and unproductive forms within both the notion of labor and the notion of leisure. Aggregated estimates of these values show the share of gross domestic product (GDP) that could be optimized due to a redistribution of the time budget of the population between the main areas of life, according to ideal social preferences.

The balance of social benefits and social ills resulting from the life experiences and activities of individuals is empirically evaluated. We consider this balance, which is the sum of impacts of the social environment on the individual, as a suitable model for explaining how individuals make decisions about whether or not to participate in public life.

“Individual public welfare functions” are assessed empirically, demonstrating that individual utility depends on personal and collective consumption. Empirical testing covered a wide range of nation-building areas with public investment in relevant types of merit and public goods.

Then the authors propose and test on empirical data an opportunity cost approach to evaluating socially legitimate amounts of funding for the fundamental social benefits “superpower” or “additional power” of the nation.

The cost of the public good “well-being of the future generations” is calculated for the Russian sample.

Finally, the estimates of the discount rates of human lives and “healthy and prosperous years of life” were obtained for Russia for the first time.

The findings of the study are relevant for the efficient management of complex socioeconomic systems. The authors strongly believe that revealing the structure of existing social preferences and estimating their impact on various areas of social life will help improve policymaking by explicitly taking into account the specifics of the real social contract between the state and society.     

EXPLAINING THE GENDER GAP IN CRIME: THE ROLE OF HEART RATE

Although it is well established that males engage in more crime compared with females, little is known about what accounts for the gender gap. Few studies have been aimed at empirically examining mediators of the gender–crime relationship in a longitudinal context. In this study, we test the hypothesis that a low resting heart rate partly mediates the relationship between gender and crime. In a sample of 894 participants, the resting heart rate at 11 years of age was examined alongside self‐reported and official conviction records for overall criminal offending, violence, serious violence, and drug‐related crime at 23 years of age. A low resting heart rate partially mediated the relationship between gender and all types of adult criminal offending, including violent and nonviolent crime. The mediation effects were significant after controlling for body mass index, race, social adversity, and activity level. Resting heart rate accounted for 5.4 percent to 17.1 percent of the gender difference in crime. This study is the first to produce results documenting that lower heart rates in males partly explain their higher levels of offending. Our findings complement traditional theoretical accounts of the gender gap and have implications for the advancement of integrative criminological theory.     

论高职院校办学模式创新

目前,我国高职教育在人才培养上存在着突出的供需矛盾。从我国相关法律、高职教育的目标看,高职院校必须适应社会发展需求进行办学模式（人才培养模式）创新。创新的根本举措是推行职业资格证书制度,并对推行职业资格证书制度的必然性、组织实施进行了全面的分析与研究。     

Characteristics and personality profiles of first 100 patients admitted to a secure forensic adolescent hospital

Bluebird House is a mixed-gender adolescent medium-secure forensic unit. There is a paucity of data available about this unique patient group. We aimed to explore the demographic, clinical and personality characteristics of the first 100 patients admitted to a mixed-gender adolescent medium-secure forensic unit. We used a retrospective cross-sectional study of the first 100 consecutive patients admitted to Bluebird House. Demographic and clinical data were collected from the medical notes including the Millon Adolescent Clinical Inventory. The first 100 young people admitted to an adolescent medium-secure unit have had very high incident rates, particularly amongst the females. Incident rate was correlated with a history of sexual assault in female patients. The males were more likely to have been referred from custody and more likely to have a diagnosis of psychosis or autism. We describe similarities and differences to the first 100 admissions admitted to the first secure psychiatric unit for adolescents in Manchester over 20 years ago.     

我国个人所得税制改革再思考

我国已成为WTO成员,其市场经济体制不断完善。然而,令人费解的是,个人所得税制至今却维持原样,未见任何实质性更改。这种现象,既不利国,也不利民,更不利于工薪阶层人员,还有碍于WTO公平原则的有效实施。本文针对现行个人所得税制的存在问题,比较与借鉴发达国家的相关立法经验,提出改革我国个人所得税制的新思路。     

高原鼠兔寄生蠕虫的调查

用蠕虫学剖解方法对高原鼠兔（Ｏｃｈｏｔｏｎａｃｕｒｚｏｎｉａｅ）的寄生蠕虫进行了调查。结果，检查的１３５只鼠兔感染蠕虫的有１０８只，感染率为８００％；经鉴定所检出的虫体为Ｃｅｐｈａｌｕｒｉｓｃｏｌｏｒａｄｅｎｓｉｓ，Ｅｕｇｅｎｕｒｉｓｓｃｈｕｍａｋｏｖｉｔｓｃｈｉ，Ｇｒａｐｈｉｄｉｅｌａｓｚｃｈｕａｎｅｎｓｉｓ，Ｍｕｒｉｅｌｕｅｑｉｎｇｈａｎｅｎｓｉｓ，Ｈｅｌｉｇｍｏｓｏｍｕｍ，ｓｐ，Ｔｒｉｃｈｕｒｉｓｓｐ，Ｌａｂｉｏｓｔｏｍｕｍｓｐ，Ｓｃｈｉｚｏｒｃｈｉｓｏｃｈｏｔｏｎａｅ，共计线虫７种，绦虫１种。     

驳人民币升值论

20 0 3年以来 ,人民币币值问题引起了国内外众多专家学者的热烈讨论。升值论者主要依据巴拉萨———萨缪尔森效应、高额的外汇储备、巨大的贸易顺差以及中国作为一个大国的责任等要求人民币升值。在升值论者中 ,一些人是出于本国的政治、经济意图 ,一些人则是因为对中国总体经济形势、具体经济现象的错误判断与把握。目前人民币升值的时机尚未成熟 ,维持人民币较长时期的汇率稳定 ,延缓升值进程 ,具有非常重要的战略意义     

利率与失业率关系再认识

利息率作为一个政策工具要通过一系列传导机制对就业施加影响,因而其结果往往是不确定的,降低利率是否有利于减少失业要视具体情况而定。一般来说,如果一个国家的产业结构是以资本和技术密集型为主,而且这个国家的失业类型主要是周期性失业,则利率降低的收入效应会大于替代效应,从而有利于增加就业。我国现阶段的情况与此相反。当前我国应当适度地调高利率,从而保持相对低廉的劳动力价格,促进劳动力资源的充分利用。     

社会保障水平与经济发展的适应性关系研究

在对社会保障水平发展系数诠释的基础上,对社会保障水平增长与经济发展之间的适应性关系进行了实证研究,认为在社会保障制度发展初期,社会保障水平增长普遍慢于经济的增长,社会保障能充分发挥其基本功能;在社会保障制度的高度发达乃至危机时期,社会保障水平增长普遍快于经济的增长,而社会保障水平增长过度会产生不良的社会经济影响;在社会保障制度改革时期,社会保障水平增长回落,又恢复到与经济发展的适应性状态。近年来,我国城市社会保障水平增长同经济增长基本适应,而农村社会保障水平增长波动性较大,与经济发展不相适应,主要是因为农村社会保障缺乏稳定的制度安排。当前我国社会保障制度发展的重点应是:一方面加强对城市社会保障水平增长的适度控制;另一方面加快农村社会保障制度建设的步伐。     

论我国汇率制度及人民币国际化的抉择

近些年来先后有许多新兴市场国家爆发了金融危机，包括东南亚国家、韩国、俄罗斯、巴西和阿根廷等。这些国家爆发金融危机有一个根本性的标志，就是放弃了固定的或有限浮动的汇率制度。这说明实行固定的或有限浮动的汇率制度是导致新兴市场国家发生金融危机的根本原因之一。我国也属于新兴市场国家，也实行钉住美元的有管理的浮动汇率制度，是否也存在严重的汇率风险，这是值得关注的问题。不仅如此，新兴市场国家究竟应实行何种汇率制度才能确保金融秩序的长期稳定?相应地我国今后应选择何种汇率制度才能有效防范和化解金融风险?人民币是否要国际化?东亚国家是否应建立货币联盟，催生亚元?这些也是需要深入研究的重大现实问题。本就这类问题作出了系统分析和探讨，以求抛砖引玉。