Mix-Ups, Mistake and Moral Judgement: Recent Developments in U.K. Law on Assisted Conception

Hard cases make bad law. In a matter of months, two such cases involving assisted reproduction have appeared before the U.K. High Court and legislation has been enacted. The common threads between them are consent and fatherhood. The first case concerns a ‘mistake’ resulting in sperm from the wrong man being used to create an embryo for a couple and the second the revocation of consent by a man to his former partner being allowed to use an embryo they created together. Furthermore, Parliament has intervened, passing legislation which sets out when sperm from a dead man may be used by his former partner to generate an embryo. This note argues that the three developments cannot be reconciled with one another and that the cases in particular, decided on a narrow legal basis, convey contradictory messages, leading in at least one instance to a gross injustice.     

稳健的货币政策与人民币汇率走向

1998年以来我国实施的与积极财政政策相适应的稳健货币政策,在保持人民币币值稳定,促进经济增长方面取得了明显成效但也遇到了新的问题。当前人民币汇率继1998年之后再次成为世人关注的焦点,就此本文认为人民币远期升值是一种必然趋势,人民币近期是否升值需视市场状况而定。     

现实汇率失调影响经济均衡的效应分析

经济运行中客观存在的现实汇率偏离均衡汇率水平造成的汇率失调对宏观经济会产生重要影响。汇率高估会导致贸易收支恶化,影响资本市场稳定,引发货币危机和债务危机,对内则损害国内产业竞争力,影响资本积累,造成税收损失,不利于就业和稳定。汇率低估虽然能鼓励出口和促进外汇储备的增长,但容易带来贸易摩擦,影响国际贸易关系,对内影响资源配置效率,不利于扩大内需和国内产业结构的调整升级,并有引发和加剧通货膨胀的可能。     

改革外汇管理体制化解人民币升值风险

改革汇率制度的可行方案是允许人民币汇率在一定区间内波动,而国家卖出外汇的汇率仍锁定在现有水平.汇率制度改革后,其他相关制度也应进行必要调整.该方案可以化解升值预期引起的风险,避免国际游资对我国经济的重大冲击,增强调控汇率的主动权,实现外汇风险的分散化.     

人民币汇率变动对我国进出口贸易的影响分析

本文通过对1994年以来人民币汇率变动与我国进出口贸易状况的历史数据的观察,并结合诸多学者已取得的实证分析的成果,总结出人民币变动短期内不会给我国对外贸易带来显著影响的结论,并分析了具体原因。然后通过对日元升值经验的总结,得出在长期要克服汇率变动的冲击,须注重以高附加值为导向进行产业结构调整的政策启示。     

利用尸体角膜内皮细胞活性率判定死后经过时间的研究

本研究对已知死亡时间的500只非正常死亡者的角膜内皮细胞进行染色观察，以单位面积内的活性内皮细胞与细胞总数之比作为活性率，发现角膜内皮细胞活性率（Endothelialcelllivinsrate，ECLR）随死后经过时间（postmorteminterval，PMI）的延长而逐渐降低，数理分析表明两者之间的关系为负相关，因此，认为检测尸体角膜内皮细胞活性的方法可为法医学推断死后经过时间提供一新的组织学手段。     

Accuracy of comparison decisions by forensic firearms examiners

This black box study assessed the performance of forensic firearms examiners in the United States. It involved three different types of firearms and 173 volunteers who performed a total of 8640 comparisons of both bullets and cartridge cases. The overall false-positive error rate was estimated as 0.656% and 0.933% for bullets and cartridge cases, respectively, while the rate of false negatives was estimated as 2.87% and 1.87% for bullets and cartridge cases, respectively. The majority of errors were made by a limited number of examiners. Because chi-square tests of independence strongly suggest that error probabilities are not the same for each examiner, these are maximum-likelihood estimates based on the beta-binomial probability model and do not depend on an assumption of equal examiner-specific error rates. Corresponding 95% confidence intervals are (0.305%, 1.42%) and (0.548%, 1.57%) for false positives for bullets and cartridge cases, respectively, and (1.89%, 4.26%) and (1.16%, 2.99%) for false negatives for bullets and cartridge cases, respectively. The results of this study are consistent with prior studies, despite its comprehensive design and challenging specimens.     

后金融危机下的区域货币合作

东南亚金融危机中,东南亚各国在盯住美元的汇率制度下付出了沉重的代价。危机过后,我国实行有管理的浮动汇率制度,然而金融风暴再次袭来又对我国经济产生了较大影响。综合各种因素,本文阐述了后金融危机时期保持人民币汇率稳定是现实选择。而近期人民币汇率的稳定也充当了区域汇率政策协调的稳定器。只有进一步推进东南亚货币合作进程,才能最为有效地防止危机再次发生,保证东南亚地区经济的稳定。     

我国离婚率变动趋势及离婚态人群特征分析

从概念辨识入手,利用权威数据,描述近几十年我国离婚率和离婚态的变动趋势及水平。研究发现:我国的离婚率持续增长,超过日本与韩国;因年轻人口总量减少,可结婚人的比例下降,离婚结婚比持续上升。数据分析显示,1982年以来,我国离婚态占比单调上升:就人群特征而言,35-49岁年龄组、男性、中等教育程度人群(1990年除外)、商业服务人员和办事人员(1990年除外)离婚态占比最高,女性的离婚态占比较之男性上升趋势更为明显;就地域分布而言,各省处于离婚态人群的占比呈西高东低、北高南低趋势,东北地区及西部省区城市人群离婚态占比最高。离婚率和离婚态的持续攀升是多重制度、城镇化与市场化结构、家庭与个体特质等因素综合作用的结果。离婚不仅透视出家庭的不稳定性,损害(部分)家庭成员福祉,而且可能引发更大范围的负面效应。在尊重当事人意愿的前提下,必须从源头、过程和后果上加强对离婚行为的社会治理,减少不必要的离婚现象。     

The single most polymorphic STR Locus: SE33 performance in U.S. populations

The STR locus SE33 (ACTBP2) located on chromosome 6 (6q14) is arguably the most polymorphic marker examined thus far by the forensic community with a heterozygosity of >0.95 in some populations. Three different primer sets were utilized in this study in order to assess the possibilities of primer binding site mutations. Population variation was measured in 460 U.S. Caucasian, 445 African American, 336 Hispanic, and 202 Asian samples along with mutation rates from almost 400 father–son pairs. In addition, the 10 genomic DNA components in NIST Standard Reference Material SRM 2391b were sequenced and found to exhibit a variety of additional base changes, insertions, and deletions outside of the SE33 repeat region.