我国低无罪率的现状分析及根源探究

无罪率分狭义与广义。无论与英美法系国家还是与大陆法系其他国家相比,我国无罪率长期以来呈现较低水平（不足0．2％）,2009年降至历史最低水平（仅0．12％）。可以预计在未来几年内,我国低无罪率的状况不会有实质改变。探索低无罪率背后的根源有以下几点：从举证责任角度考虑,我国现行起诉标准与有罪判决标准高度一致是导致有罪判决普遍的主要原因。更多导致我国无罪率低的原因来自法律之外。检察机关的主动撤诉是我国无罪判决少的最重要原因。我国现行撤诉比例在15％左右,在司法实践中,检察机关凭借经验将可预见的无罪判决案件通过撤诉等方式使之提前退出审判程序。此外,法律对检查机关职权的规定与检查机关对检察官管理考核的工作制度不完全一致,导致检察官更加关心有罪的裁判结果;无罪推定原则缺失,刑事诉讼配套机制缺失也是我国无罪率低的重要原因。     

警察心率变异性非线性分析的研究

运用北京豪峰数码娱乐科技有限公司与美国心脏数理研究所合作开发的生理相干与自主平衡系统(Self-generate Physiological Coherence System,SPCS)提供的协调指数、稳定指数、评价分数等指标,对140名刚参加公安工作的新警和260名有公安工作经历的在职警察的HRV进行非线性分析,在检测警种岗位差异对警察精神负荷的影响上,指标具有敏感性,并且随着公安工作时间的延长,指标的敏感性加强。     

人民币汇率制度与我国金融危机的防范

现行人民币汇率制度名义上是一种有管理的浮动汇率制度,但实际上属于软钉住美元的汇率制度,具有自身难以克服的内在缺陷,已对我国经济产生许多不利影响,而且容易诱发金融危机。为防范金融危机在我国出现,我国急需完善现行人民币汇率的市场化形成机制。     

社会问题与教育转型——试论民国时期的学生就业困难(1912—1937)

中国新式学校教育开始于清末,1905年科举制度的废除使它随即成为国家主要制度性教育,毕业生逐渐增多,此系中国教育的重大变革。然而到了民国时期各级各类学校毕业生都遇到了严重的就业困难,表现为毕业生的低就业率和已就业者的职业困境,构成了一个新的教育和社会问题。而这与清末和民国时期的中国教育转型有极大的关系,这种转型是受外部因素影响的急剧变革,该变革使社会的受教育者就业模式快速解体,短时间内天然地导致了学生就业困难。所以如果我们能够把中国的学生就业问题,放在一百年来中国社会改革的过程中来看待,将有助于我们更为客观地理解这个问题。     

Real Denial Rates: A New Tool to Look at Who Is Receiving Mortgage Credit

ABSTRACT

The observed mortgage denial rate (ODR), calculated from Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data, is often used to measure mortgage credit availability, but it does not account for shifts in applicants’ credit profiles. In this article, we develop an additional tool, which we call the real denial rate (RDR), as a way to account for credit differences and hence more consistently measure denial rates and mortgage credit accessibility. We match HMDA data with CoreLogic proprietary data to obtain both borrower demographic information (e.g., income and race and ethnicity) and mortgage credit characteristics (e.g., loan-to-value ratios, debt-to-income ratios, and credit scores). We account for shifts in applicants’ credit profiles by considering only the denial rate of low-credit-profile applicants. Our RDR results show that conventional mortgages have higher denial rates than government mortgages do, racial and ethnic differences are smaller than the ODR indicates but are not eliminated, and small-dollar mortgages have higher RDRs, particularly in the government loan channel.     

Tooth hop variability in human and nonhuman bone: Effect on the estimation of saw blade TPI

Forensic research has demonstrated that tooth hop (TH) is a valuable measurement from saw-cut bones as it can be used to estimate teeth-per-inch (TPI) of a saw used in postmortem dismemberment cases. However, error rates for TPI estimation are still under development and knowledge of how bone tissue affects TH measurements remains unclear. The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects of tissue variability through the use of different taxa on the accuracy and precision of TH measurements in the bone to estimate TPI of the blade. A total of 1766 TH measurements were analyzed from human, pig, and deer long bones cut by two 7 TPI saw blades of different tooth type. Fifty distance-between-teeth measurements before and after sawing were collected directly from each blade for comparison to bone-measured TH to assess potential effects of tooth wear on TH variability. ANOVA and F tests were used to compare mean TH and variance, respectively, by saw-species (i.e., crosscut-deer, rip-deer) and species groups (i.e., all deer, all pig), with significance determined at the p < 0.05 level. TH measurements were converted to usable TPI ranges, which would typically be presented in a forensic report. It is concluded that significant differences in TH (mm) do not necessarily reflect significant differences in associated TPI ranges of suspect blades. Forensic reports should report mean TPI ± 1.5–2.5 TPI while providing a sample size indicating number of TH measured rather than just number of cuts or cut surfaces examined.     

Determinants of Personal Income Taxes for Barbados

The purpose of this study was to identify determinants of personal income taxes in Barbados and, using the Engle-Granger two-step procedures with annual data from 1976 to 2008, ascertain how these variables would impact on the dependent variable in the long and short run. The study showed that in the long run, the variables that would impact upon personal income tax receipts were marginal tax rate, real per capita income, and the rate of unemployment, while in the short run, personal income taxes were affected by current real per capita income in addition to lagged values of real per capita income, the marginal tax rate, and the rate of unemployment, respectively.     

True or false? Nineteenth-century Sápmi fertility in qualitative vs. demographic sources

There is limited knowledge about childbirth and childcare among Arctic indigenous peoples in historical times, and the Swedish Sami are no exception. The main aim of the present study is to investigate whether the Sami experienced fertility trends parallel to those of the rest of the population in the area and in Sweden as a whole. Digitized parish records offer a unique possibility to include comparisons from ethnic, cultural, geographical and long-term perspectives. The present study compares the statements about fertility and childcare provided by qualitative sources with data from quantitative demographic investigations. This comparison reveals a contrasting picture, from which it is evident that contemporary observers’ impressions of the Sami and their childbirths were somewhat inaccurate. Opposite to what the qualitative sources claimed Sami fertility was higher than the national average rates. Moreover, crude birth rates were high and the average number of children in families exceeded what was generally claimed. We can conclude that the statements made by clergy, physicians and travelers concerning childbirth among the Sami did not correspond particularly well with the demographic reality.     

人民币汇率与中俄主要产品贸易分析

基于ARDL模型研究人民币汇率对中俄主要贸易品的影响,中对俄出口以"纺织品和机械制品"为样本,中从俄进口以"矿产品和木及木制品"为样本。研究结果显示:汇率升值不利于纺织品出口和木及木制品进口,但对机械制品出口和矿产品进口没有影响。俄罗斯国民产出增加对纺织品、机械制品出口有促进作用;中国国民产出增加对木及木制品进口影响较弱;矿产品进口主要受非经济因素影响。对此,应"扩大货币互换协议规模以规避纺织品、矿产品贸易的汇率风险;保持政治互信以稳定矿产品进口;积极发展产业内贸易以协调和促进未来中俄贸易发展"。     

基本养老保险政策区域不均衡研究

由于政策规定和执行均存在差异,我国基本养老保险政策区域不均衡显著。文章分别采用广义熵、阿特金森指数和基尼系数测量顶部、底部和中部不均衡,先考察基本养老保险政策的省内、省际不均衡,再采用PSM-DID和准合成控制法识别2016年阶段性降费率政策对区域不均衡的影响。研究发现:全国省内不均衡程度,贵州最低,福建顶部和中部较高、辽宁底部较高。2008-2017年全国顶部、底部和中部省内不均衡总体下降,其中天津降幅最大,但还有约三分之一的省未下降,且2016年阶段性降费率政策加剧省内不均衡,尤其是底部不均衡;2008-2017年全国顶部、底部和中部省际不均衡总体下降,2016年阶段性降费率政策减弱省际不均衡,尤其是底部不均衡。