The Reliability of Pattern Classification in Bloodstain Pattern Analysis,Part 1: Bloodstain Patterns on Rigid Non‐absorbent Surfaces

This study was designed to produce the first baseline measure of reliability in bloodstain pattern classification. A panel of experienced bloodstain pattern analysts examined over 400 spatter patterns on three rigid non‐absorbent surfaces. The patterns varied in spatter type and extent. A case summary accompanied each pattern that either contained neutral information, information to suggest the correct pattern (i.e., was positively biasing), or information to suggest an incorrect pattern (i.e., was negatively biasing). Across the variables under examination, 13% of classifications were erroneous. Generally speaking, where the pattern was more difficult to recognize (e.g., limited staining extent or a patterned substrate), analysts became more conservative in their judgment, opting to be inconclusive. Incorrect classifications increased as a function of the negatively biasing contextual information. The implications of the findings for practice are discussed.     

Marital fertility during the Korean demographic transition: child survival and birth spacing

In this paper, we examine marital fertility patterns during the demographic transition in Korea. The demographic transition was a fundamental transformation in human societies, and has been a key topic in demographic research. However, our understanding of the demographic transition in Korea is limited, largely due to a lack of adequate data. By using individual longitudinal data drawn from the population registers in a rural Korean village between 1920 and 1977, we attempt to contribute to this literature. We first discuss conceptual and data issues, and the historical context. We then test a key exposition of demographic transition theory: an improvement in child survival was a prerequisite for fertility decline. We find that: (1) an improvement in child survival was crucial for marital fertility changes across birth cohorts; (2) the relationship between child survival and marital fertility remained stable; (3) parity-specific fertility control emerged early and birth spacing became important later as ways of limiting marital fertility; and (4) the sex of the deceased offspring became important for marital fertility. The implications of these findings for the Korean demographic transition and future study topics are discussed.     

The Contribution of the “Dutch School” in Public Finance to the Theory of Personal Income Taxation (1870–1920)

Hansen's dissertation (1996) is an impressive, highly valuable, and thorough study on the problems of income taxation in Germany. These problems were also extensively discussed in Dutch economic literature around 1900. Several authors took part in the discussion, and some were also involved as politicians. They are referred to as the Dutch School in public finance. The discussions in the Netherlands were of a distinctive character as far as the tax rate (progression) is concerned. With regard to the tax base (the concept of income) there is in the case of the reform of the income tax in 1915, via in particular Treub, close affinity to that thinking in Germany, that is so eminently analyzed by Hansen.     

老龄化是新世纪我国面临的严峻挑战

本首先展望了21世纪我国人口老龄化的发展前景,指出在未来50年中,我国将处于高速度、高水平的老龄化发展进程之中,65岁及以上老年人口将从8000多万增至3亿以上,这对尚处于社会主义初级阶段的国家来说,无疑是个巨大冲击和严峻挑战;分析了老龄化的特殊性及其对社会经济发展所带来的深刻影响和至关重要的制久作用;提出了迎接老龄化挑战是个关系全局性、战略性的重大问题,必须采取有中国特色的正确战略选择。     

对日本少子化问题的新思考

人口少子化是日本政府面临的一个重大课题。首先分析了日本少子化的现状、成因及其对经济社会的影响,然后重点探讨了日本政府的少子化对策并阐述了日本政府在少子化对策上存在的问题。最后在上述分析的基础上为日本政府解决少子化问题在政策方面提出了几点建议。     

人口再生产价值视角的女性生育和劳动权益保障

近年来,我国生育政策进行了几次调整,体现了国家对人口再生产在社会发展中重要性的认同,但是生育率未能得到有效提升,而女性在劳动力市场遭受歧视的现象依然广泛存在.研究认为,生育与工作家庭的冲突是我国生育现状的主要影响因素,而"全面三孩"政策可能加剧这种冲突.研究建议:应以人口再生产与物质生产理论为基础,重新审视人口再生产在...     

Effect of financial sector development and FDI inflow on employment rate in South Asia: New empirical evidence from ARDL approach

The current analysis aims to explore the empirical nexus between financial development, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow, and employment rate. To attain this aim, we collect 30 years of annual data over the period 1990 to 2019 from South Asian economies and employ the autoregressive dynamic least square (ARDL) model for regression analysis. The implication of the ARDL model was subject to the mixed stationarity status of the series as assessed by unit root testing. The robustness of the analysis was checked by employing the fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) models. The statistical analysis infers that both financial development and FDI inflow enhance the employment rate in the South Asia region. In addition, the empirical analysis infers that the gross capital formation, economic growth, and export volume have a positive while the population growth rate has a negative effect on the employment rate. The impact of underlying explanatory variables was found significant only in long run. The estimated coefficient values in the case of FMOLS and DOLS models support the direction of the relationship between explanatory variables and employment rate, implying the robustness of the analysis. The findings of the current analysis can be used to devise efficient economic policies to cope with the encroaching issue of unemployment in the South Asia region. This study offers the robustness to existing literature and complements the literature by exploring the underlying arrangement of study to the whole South Asia group.     

试论央行加息的必然性及其影响

目前,我国经济运行中投资、货币信贷等指标均已出现不同程度的回落,但投资反弹的压力仍然较大.那么,要巩固现有成果,适度加息可以起到怎样的作用?加息对巩固前一阶段宏观调控的成果有积极的帮助,但由于加息幅度有限,对资本市场近期内影响将不会十分明显.     

中国式离婚现象透视

我国婚姻法规定的＂离婚自由原则＂,反映了当代世界离婚立法的发展趋势,体现了我国立法的日趋完善和人性化,但同时也带来离婚率上升等一系列社会问题。面对目前离婚的特点,我国应健全婚姻立法和执法体系,以适当控制离婚,达到促进社会和谐发展的目标。     

Mitochondrial DNA amplification success rate as a function of hair morphology

This study examines the amplification success rate of mitochondrial DNA from human head hair with respect to their potential for forensic application. Mitochondrial DNA was isolated using a Chelex-based extraction method and amplified using the LINEAR ARRAY duplex PCR system. The particular focus of this study was to characterize the morphological features of human head hair in order to further the understanding of the factors that influence amplification success rate in hair tissue using the LINEAR ARRAY duplex PCR system. 2554 head hairs from 132 individuals representing four population groups were amplified. The hair samples were characterized as follows: 1251 were identified microscopically as telogen hairs and 1303 were classified as hairs without roots (removed before extraction). Amplification success was assessed as a function of several independent variables: morphological characteristics; telogen root versus no root; donor age; scalp origin; use of cosmetic hair treatments; and race of the donor. The results show that a positive correlation exists between amplification success and the presence of a telogen root. Combining the amplification success with either the original or optimized protocol, telogen hairs result in an overall success rate of 77.5% compared with 65% for hairs with no roots. Controlling for telogen hairs, the findings indicate that the overall success rate is independent of cosmetic hair treatments; medulla structure; shaft length, diameter, and volume; and scalp origin. Conversely, the age of the donor, the race of the donor, and hair pigmentation all contribute to a variation in amplification success rate.