Do volatile voters vote less correctly? An analysis of correct voting among vote (intention) switchers in US presidential election campaigns

The literature on electoral volatility and the literature on electoral campaigns hold contradictory views on voters switching vote (intention) during the campaign. In this note, we shed new light on this contradiction, making two contributions. First, we investigate the extent to which stable and volatile voters choose the correct party. Second, we distinguish levels of correct voting and the impact of the act of switching on the correctness of the vote. Our analyses of vote-switching in American elections show that, while volatile voters are less likely to vote correctly, they are more likely to switch from an incorrect to the correct party than vice versa. Furthermore, we show that following the campaign more closely makes voters more likely to switch vote (intention) towards the correct party.     

Small arms and light weapons: the disjunction problem

ABSTRACT

Growing in range and urgency, humanitarian needs now pose increasingly acute questions for national security policy formulation. Whether over forced migration, food scarcity or nefarious electronic penetration, state security preferences face uneasy accommodations with individual needs be it for child survival, basic sustenance or rights to privacy. This paper deliberates a further field of increasingly apparent value contest: that involving the transfer, diversion and lethal use of small arms and light weapons (SALW). After outlining the scale of this phenomenon, existing regulatory mechanisms over SALW transfers are assessed. It is argued that these controls are inadequate, a deficiency that is embedded within a range of inter-linked disjunctions. They are outlined in a model that is evaluated against empirical findings. Where SALW control inadequacy is causally connected to the disjunctive model, it is argued, current levels of SALW-induced casualties are unlikely to abate. The paper concludes by considering feasible options for enhanced management of global SALW proliferation.     

肌肉电导率和pH两指标联用推断死亡时间

目的探讨肌肉浸渍液电导率(electrical conductivity,EC)、pH两指标联用在PMI推断上的意义。方法 SD大鼠处死后,保存在25℃环境中,于不同PMI提取大鼠后肢肌肉制备匀浆液,测定浸渍液EC和pH。分析EC、pH两指标联合使用推断PMI的意义。结果 EC、pH两指标随PMI均呈现阶段性变化:1d内,pH明显下降,EC无明显变化;2~3d,EC、pH均快速增大;4~10d,EC继续增大,而pH变化不明显。EC、pH联合使用,有助于划分PMI时段,以及特定时段内指标的优化:1d内,选择pH最佳,2~3d,EC、pH联用最佳,4~10d,选择EC最佳。结论 EC、pH联用有助于提高PMI推断的准确性。     

公共服务供给机制转型中的公益性岗位研究

我国自2002年起开始施行公益性岗位的政策,这一政策对拓宽就业渠道、缓解失业压力起到了一定的作用。但目前依靠政府进一步开发和购买公益性岗位的难度很大。本文对国内外公共服务供给机制转型进行了比较分析,在此基础上提出以下建议:我国应进一步完善公共服务的供给机制,以社区为平台,通过推动购买服务的方式,调动社会组织服务社区和吸收就业的功能,以推动公益性岗位的增加。     

“两个普遍”要求乡镇（街道）工会建设新突破

当前,乡镇(街道)工会已成为工会组织体系中承上启下的重要环节,加强乡镇(街道)工会建设,落实"组织起来、切实维权"工作方针,亟待解决"有人干事"和"有钱办事"等问题,按照工会规范化建设要求,明确乡镇(街道)总工会法律地位,增强基层工会活力,确保依法推动企业普遍建立工会组织,依法推动企业普遍开展工资集体协商,即"两个普遍"工作目标的实现。     

关于转型期企业共青团建设的几点思考

企业团组织引导青年发展,应基于青年特点和企业的实际展开。企业团组织要发挥政治上引领青年、帮助青年成才、对青年的考核等方面的作用。企业团建工作要从健全组织机构、介入企业文化、推进组织创新、规范组织生活、开展青年养成教育等方面入手。     

Digital Wiretap Warrant: Improving the security of ETSI Lawful Interception

Lawful Interception (LI) of data communications is an essential tool for Law Enforcement Agencies (LEA) in order to investigate criminal activities carried out or coordinated by means of Internet. However, the ability to secretly monitor the activities of citizens also has a great impact on civil rights. Therefore, democratic societies must prevent abuse and ensure that LI is only employed in specific cases with justifiable grounds or a probable cause. Nowadays, in many countries each interception must be authorized by a wiretap warrant, usually issued by a judge. However, this wiretap warrant is merely an administrative document that should be checked by the network or service operator before enabling the monitoring of its customers, whose communications are later handed over to a LEA in plaintext. This paper proposes the idea of employing a Digital Wiretap Warrant (DWW), which further protects the civil liberties, security and privacy of LI by ensuring that monitoring devices can only be enabled with a valid DWW, and by encrypting the captured data so only the authorized LEA is able to decrypt those communications. Moreover, in the proposed DWW framework all digital evidence is securely time-stamped and signed, thus guaranteeing that it has not been tampered with, and that a proper chain of custody has been met. In particular this paper proposes how to apply the DWW concept to the lawful interception framework defined by the ETSI LI Technical Committee, and evaluates how the additional security mechanisms could impact the performance and storage costs of a LI platform.     

当前国际投资促进机构运行的特征与走势

后金融危机时代,各国为从金融危机中尽快复苏经济普遍加强了投资促进工作,国际投资促进机构运行呈现新特征。通过深入研究新特征,密切关注其走势及采取的积极应对措施。为进一步理顺我国投资促进体制机制、创新投资促进方式、推动扩大内需、提升投资服务质量、提高投资促进效益提供启示,深化我国投资促进工作,提升国际竞争力。     

The Management of Democratic Elections in Africa (MDEA) programme at the university of South Africa: Is this the right path towards African solutions?

There have been a number of initiatives in Africa to rid the Continent of political instability, conflict, poverty and disease. Many have argued that aid from the West has helped Africa in many ways—from stopping wars, to food relief and rescuing the African environment. Yet others have slated Western involvement which they contend, frequently leaves Africans dependant rather than capable of solving their own problems. In line with the pan-Africanist and the African Union (AU) ideals, there is now a realisation by Africans that there is a need to find African solutions to African challenges and problems. This review article explores the University of South Africa’s (Unisa’s) Management of Democratic Elections in Africa (MDEA) programme, by looking at its objectives and the reason why it must be labelled a Programme, its mandate, which is in line with the brief of the AU and pan-Africanist ideals. The article focuses on how Unisa’s programme responds to the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (ACDEG); and how it has attempted to facilitate knowledge for peace in Africa, through empowering electoral officials from various African states. The article concludes by looking at the successes and limitations of the Programme over a five-year period, from its inception in 2011.     

口蹄疫病毒O型和A型交互反应性单克隆抗体的筛选与鉴定

不同血清型口蹄疫病毒(FMDV)之间不能产生交叉免疫保护,但是血清学的交叉反应确实存在。本研究旨在建立一种筛选型间交互反应性抗体的方法,以期为解析FMDV血清型间保守的抗原结构奠定基础。本方法主要依据单个B细胞抗体技术,首先采用两种不同的荧光染料FluoProbes 647H和Pacific Blue分别标记O型与A型FMDV 146S灭活抗原,然后利用流式细胞分选技术,从免疫牛外周血单个核细胞(PBMCs)中分选出结合两种抗原的特异性B细胞,通过单个B细胞抗体基因测定,获得Ig G抗体重链与轻链可变区编码序列,并将可变区基因插入含有牛IgG抗体恒定区的pcDNA3.4载体中,构建IgG抗体的重链与轻链表达质粒。将重链与轻链表达质粒共转染中国仓鼠卵巢悬浮细胞(CHO-S)进行完整抗体表达。结果显示,通过该方法获得了5株FMDV特异性单克隆抗体,其中4株(H64、R82、I16、R29)经间接免疫荧光(IFA)检测都可特异性识别O和A型FMDV;ELISA结果显示,H64、R82、I16与O、A型抗原均具有较好的亲合力;Western-blot结果显示,I16可特异性结合O、A型FMDV结构蛋白VP2中的线性表位,说明在衣壳蛋白VP2上存在血清型间保守的抗原表位,通过本研究进一步加深了对FMDV抗原结构的认识。