韩国在中美安全竞争间的选择

由于中国的崛起,东亚的地区秩序发生了巨大变化,目前正处于过渡阶段。在过渡期的地区秩序下,像韩国这样的中等国家面临严重问题,即随着中美大国竞争导致地区旧秩序削弱,韩国该如何应对这种局面。观察家们为中等国家指出了一系列策略选择:从制衡到追随,从防范到接触。有些观察家认为,中等国家将通过不同方式扮演稳定局面的角色,保持双重等级体系,因为中等国家有可能从大国僵持中获益。作者则认为,中等国家可以采用的策略选择很大程度上受制于大国竞争的背景。在大国竞争的背景下,中等国家在战略结盟时很难做出自己的选择,更多是被迫接受某种选择。作者使用基本议价理论作为工具,阐述该观点背后的逻辑支撑是:在影响过渡期地区秩序的相对稳定性方面,中等国家的作用很小;在调和各种选择的影响方面,中等国家也不如大国有决定作用。     

探索中美关系新范式及全球安全治理

特朗普执政以来,美国对华战略定位出现全方位负面趋向,由“接触”向“规锁”的转型不断加深。作为当今国际体系中的新兴大国与霸权国家,两国关系正在形成战略竞争日益突出的新态势。中美经贸摩擦的出现和深化表明,经贸合作作为两国关系的传统“压舱石”,在单独应对战略竞争“新态势”方面所能发挥的作用有限。为有效阻止“新态势”向全面对抗与冲突方向演变,中美亟须重新定位、处理和管控彼此关系的“新范式”。包括全球安全治理在内的全球治理架构为中美战略博弈与权势平衡提供了相对稳定的制度体系。通过明确战略竞争边界、构建对话协调平台,有效借助第三方力量等,中美的理性博弈、积极合作能够得到有效推动,并直接带来全球安全治理在观念、制度、模式等方面的变革。这不仅符合两国根本利益和国际社会的普遍愿望,也是全球治理健全发展的需要。但确立“新范式”有待解决的一大问题是,经贸合作作为两国关系“压舱石”的作用已经不稳,需要探索新的“压舱石”,全球安全治理合作在此方面的作用是不够的。未来中美关系的首要特点是战略竞争,新的“压舱石”可以通过权力博弈建立某种相对稳定的机制架构,最终以大国权势平衡的方式来打造。     

“全球安全倡议”：人类安全的“前景图”

“全球安全倡议”是人类命运共同体理念在全球安全治理中的具体化,是运用中国智慧为人类自救于危难、发展于和平、成就于安宁而提出的中国方案。安全观是安全的一种理论化的体系性认知。“全球安全倡议”宣示了中国的全球安全观,弘扬了全人类共同价值,超越了国际无政府逻辑,完好地回答了安全指涉对象、安全立场、安全原则、安全治理的目标/主体/方式/内容等问题,具有重大的理论创新性与时代价值。全球安全是一种本体安全,“和合”是其正向价值取向的核心,共生、共建、共享是其基本特性。为此,“全球安全倡议”的实践前提是“和合共生”,实现路径是“和合共建”,价值目标是“和合共享”。维护与塑造全球安全的共建策略是,达成人类命运共同体的全球共识,形成安全互助的良好态势,促成安全互保的战略环境,建成安全共享的治理体系。“全球安全倡议”作为以新安全格局保障新发展格局的框架设计,描绘的正是呈现和合共生、和合共建、和合共享的人类安全“前景图”,以保障人类发展的美好未来。     

南海资源共同开发的法律机制构建略论

南海问题错综复杂。利用临时安排制度既有利于维护我国海权,又有利于稳定南海地区局势,并在此基础上探求最终公平解决南海争端的途径。通过总结我国和其他国家共同开发的实践经验,我们能从中归纳出一些原则和方法,从而勾勒出一个适合我国与南海周边邻国共同开发南海资源的法律机制。     

特朗普政府执政以来全球贸易体系的变局：机遇与挑战

特朗普自执政以来,强力推行"美国优先"的经济政策,冲击着现行的国际秩序,使全球贸易体系出现前所未有之大变局。美国成"变量",单边对决多边,西方阵营分裂,新兴经济体和发展中国家群体崛起明显。变局中,特朗普政府孤立主义、单边主义、保护主义的政治经济学逻辑显现无疑,这给中国的发展既带来了机遇,又造成了新的挑战。因此,中国必须采取稳妥的应对策略,把握战略全局,维护中美关系稳定大局;深化改革开放,打造多边利益共同体;布局主场外交,提升中国的战略能力。     

Contemporary piracy research in criminology: a review essay with directions for future research

The realm of the ocean is scarcely studied by criminologist despite it being a component of the space of society. With the growth of maritime piracy in the past decade, this void has become increasingly palpable. The aim of this article is to catalyze more research in the field by providing an introduction and overview of the topic. The article starts by clarifying what piracy is, reviewing and evaluating some of its definitions and typologies. Furthermore, using the new Contemporary Maritime Piracy Database, the article charts the location of contemporary piracy. The article outlines factors that have been suggested as precursors of piracy before suggesting some key areas for future research.     

Joining the ranks: South Africa on track to adopting DNA legislation

South Africa has recently been at the epicentre of a spate of horrific violence, with reports of rape and murder making headlines almost daily. Disturbingly regarded as the ‘rape capital of the world’, South Africa has never before required a more urgent need for the effective use of DNA profiling in aiding investigations as now. Although South Africa has conducted DNA profiling since 1998, there has been no supporting legislative framework for its use thus far. The ‘DNA Bill’ has recently been passed by Parliament and we reflect on the key events that have brought us to this milestone.The DNA Project, a non-profit organisation, has long been lobbying to pass such legislation, as well as providing free DNA awareness workshops to a variety of first-on-the-crime-scene personnel. As with all new DNA legislation, there arises an essential need to intensify training and awareness around the DNA process, from the crime scene to the court room, in order for the value of DNA evidence be realised. Enacting legislation is only a step on a journey to effectively utilise DNA profiling resources in a more intelligent manner and it is necessary that significant investment be continually made towards the improvement and advancement of this exceptional technology and tool.     

人工智能发展、全球价值链调整与就业格局变化

人工智能技术快速发展,全球价值链悄然调整。需求状况、生产要素、支持产业、企业同业竞争、政府等与劳动力密切相关的基本要素在中国都发生了前所未有的变化,对我国劳动分工与就业格局产生了极大的影响。研究认为,劳动力的"第三次解绑"导致新的就业特征产生。为更好地应对人工智能技术冲击、全球价值链重构带来的新就业问题,应当多措施并举扩大就业渠道,通过跨区、跨国创业拉动就业,着重培养复合型人才,提升教育质量。     

危机冲击与全球贸易“超调式”震荡成因的研究综述

本文从需求减弱效应说、信贷紧缩和生产崩溃效应说、贸易保护主义抬头效应说以及全球垂直一体化分工效应说四个方面,综述了当前学术界关于本轮危机冲击下全球贸易“超调式”震荡的成因研究。但是本文认为,现有研究所揭示的因素虽然都在一定程度上对全球贸易造成了冲击,但仍不足以解释“超调式”震荡的成因。对危机冲击下全球贸易“超调式”震荡成因的解读,必须从国际生产分割深入演进与中间产品存货调整相结合的角度进行分析,这一视角理应成为理论界进一步深入研究的重要方向。     

Corporate power,US drug enforcement and the repression of indigenous peoples in Latin America

Abstract

The question that motivates this article is: what are the mechanisms through which the prosecution of the drug war in Latin America lead to human rights repression? In answering this question, I theorise that drug enforcement is a coalition of actors that facilitates domestic and international consensus around prohibition as a mechanism for corporate expansion. Drug war infrastructure financing is likely to facilitate the expansion of corporate investments by resource-seeking industries that require greater land use, which encroaches on the ancestral territories of indigenous peoples. And, in response to indigenous resistance to corporate appropriation of ancestral lands, resource-seeking transnational corporations will collude with private security firms and paramilitary organisations to repress and eliminate indigenous resistance. In the process of accumulating capital in Latin America, transnational corporations, domestic security, and paramilitary organizations are the drug enforcement coalition’s mediators of terror.