Re-Examining the Functional Form of the Certainty Effect in Deterrence Theory

In this paper we explore the functional form of the risk-certainty effect for deterrence. Using a sample of serious youth offenders, we first estimate a simple linear model of the relationship between the perceived certainty of punishment and self-reported offending. Consistent with previous literature we find evidence of a moderate deterrent effect. We then examined whether, consistent with a linear model, the effect of perceived risk is truly constant at different ranges of the risk continuum. Estimating a nonparametric regression model that makes no a priori assumption about the functional form of the model but allows the data itself to yield the appropriate functional form, we found marked departures from linearity. Our examination showed evidence of both a tipping effect, whereby perceived risk deters only when it reaches a certain threshold (between an estimated risk of .3 and .4) and a substantially accelerated deterrent effect for individuals at the high end of the risk continuum. Perceived sanction threats did, however, have a non-trivial deterrent effect within the mid-range of risk. The implications of our findings for both theory and additional research are discussed.     

《气候变化框架公约》履行的环境法解释与方案选择

《气候变化框架公约》及其议定书是人类应对气候变化所制定的总体规划和实施细则,但是,由于其和其他环境法公约一样具有环境法的"软法"特质,一些《气候变化框架公约》的履行机制出现了许多值得探究的边白。以"震慑型"方案还是"激励型"方案为主,需要从《气候变化框架公约》的履行理论切入,深入剖析,对此两种方案进行理论、实证博弈分析,得出《气候变化框架公约》履行方案的应有选择,为今后其他国际环境条约的履行提供相关指导。     

PROACTIVE POLICING AND ROBBERY RATES ACROSS U.S. CITIES*

In recent years, criminologists, as well as journalists, have devoted considerable attention to the potential deterrent effect of what is sometimes referred to as “proactive” policing. This policing style entails the vigorous enforcement of laws against relatively minor offenses to prevent more serious crime. The current study examines the effect of proactive policing on robbery rates for a sample of large U.S. cities using an innovative measure developed by Sampson and Cohen (1988). We replicate their cross-sectional analyses using data from 2000 to 2003, which is a period that proactive policing is likely to have become more common than that of the original study—the early 1980s. We also extend their analyses by estimating a more comprehensive regression model that incorporates additional theoretically relevant predictors. Finally, we advance previous research in this area by using panel data, The cross-sectional analyses replicate prior findings of a negative relationship between proactive policing and robbery rates. In addition, our dynamic models suggest that proactive policing is endogenous to changes in robbery rates. When this feedback between robbery and proactive policing is eliminated, we find more evidence to support our finding that proactive policing reduces robbery rates.     

关于刑事科学技术综合模拟实训的研究

刑事科学技术专业的培养目标是应用型人才，强调动手能力的培养，同时主要专业课程之间关联性很强。如何在所有课程结束后进行综合模拟实训，是关系到学员毕业后能否尽快适应工作的主要条件之一。文章重点研究了综合模拟实训的方法、步骤以及考核形式。模拟过程中主要以真实案例的现场勘查为主线，结合所学专业课程的特点．强调学员对各类痕迹物证的勘验、分析和利用能力，最后以小组的形式完成一个完整的痕迹物证勘验和检验鉴定卷宗。     

Overview of: “The Impact of Drug Market Pulling Levers Policing on Neighborhood Violence: An Evaluation of the High Point Drug Market Intervention”

Research Summary Pulling levers policing draws upon the focused deterrence framework, which has shown considerable promise when directed at youth, gun, and gang offenders. However, much less is known about the viability of pulling levers when applied to different contexts as well as to diverse groups of offenders. We examine the High Point (North Carolina) Drug Market Intervention (DMI), the first site to use pulling levers as a place-based policing approach to disrupt a series of open-air drug markets across the city. Eleven years of longitudinal data are analyzed by using difference-in-difference panel regression analyses combined with finite mixture estimation as a means to test for divergence in violent crime patterns. Several key, although inconsistent, findings are presented. First, we found a statistically significant reduction in violent offenses in specific high-crime places (i.e., high-trajectory census blocks) located across the different targeted neighborhoods compared with the remainder of High Point, and relative to comparable nontargeted areas. Second, the citywide violent crime rate actually increased after a series of interventions unfolded, which may suggest limitations with the approach. Finally, trend analyses indicated the strategy had different levels of violent crime impact throughout unique geographic contexts. Policy Implications Rather than arresting every offender identified as having participated in illicit drug trafficking across various geographic contexts within the city, officials in High Point decided to invite low-risk drug offenders to community notification sessions in order to change their perceived risk of punishment as well as to mobilize community members across the different targeted neighborhoods. The suggestive evidence of potential, although limited, violent crime impact illustrates that this type of policing strategy may hold considerable promise. This interpretation gains credence when considered with prior evaluations of the DMI approach that illustrated the potential for reducing drug-related crime and in light of reports of improved police–community relations. The inconsistent findings across all locations and the overall city increase in violent crime toward the end of the study period, however, raise several concerns when interpreting study results. Additionally, our findings suggest that further replications should include systematic problem-identification, process measures, and more precise research designs.     

政策执行研究中的理论模型探讨

在西方持续20多年的政策执行研究中,大量学者提出了各种各样的政策执行方案和模型,最有代表性的是"自上而下"模型和"自下而上"模型,以及后来的整合式模型。围绕三种模型所展开的争论,大大丰富和发展了政策科学的理论内涵,推动了公共政策的制定和执行向着更加科学和民主的方向前进。     

坚持“三紧贴” 追求“三向度” 实现“三提高” 全面提升党校理论教学水平

党校教学紧贴理论、紧贴实际、紧贴学员;党校教师追求理论高度、追求理论深度、追求理论广度;党校学员提高逻辑思维能力、提高科学分析能力、提高解决实际问题的能力,是新形势下深化党校教学改革和加强党校教育工作的重要切入点.实践证明,只要坚持"三紧贴",追求"三向度",实现"三提高",就能在教学结合上,教的管理上,学的要求上找到改革方向,找到发展思路,就能全面提升党校理论教学水平.     

政治价值整合:欧洲社会民主党执政实践的重要内容

政治价值整合是政党树立执政权威、扩大社会基础、增强执政能力的重要手段。20世纪末,面对欧洲社会的深刻变化,欧洲一些社会民主党通过其传统价值理念的批判式反思,整合建构新的政治纲领,并通过创新党内民主和社会参与的方式,实现了政治价值的整合,取得并执掌了政权。其执政实践为我们研究执政能力建设提供了很好的借鉴。     

Tax compliance: An investigation using individual taxpayer compliance measurement program (TCMP) data

In this paper, we analyze the tax compliance behavior of U.S. taxpayers by using a 1979 data set that combines information from a random sample of individual tax returns, each of which has been thoroughly audited, IRS administrative records, and sociodemographic data from the Census. We find evidence that both audits and tax code provisions affect compliance. However, the effects are significant for only low-and high-income groups. Interestingly, work on the underground economy also suggests that it is these two groups that are least compliant. Our results for audits suggest that the ripple or general deterrent effect of audits may be substantially larger than the direct revenue yield of audits for high-income taxpayers. Our results for allowable subtractions from income imply that the 1986 Tax Reform Act changes that lowered allowable subtractions may have procompliance effects.     

依托党建带团建推进区域共青团整体化建设

团余姚市委面对经济成分和经济利益的多样化、社会生活方式的多样化、社会组织的多样化以及就业方式的多样化等新情况和新问题,积极探索和实践依托党建带团建的工作机制,着力推进区域共青团整体化建设。