Predicting Sex Offender Recidivism. I. Correcting for Item Overselection and Accuracy Overestimation in Scale Development. II. Sampling Error-Induced Attenuation of Predictive Validity Over Base Rate Information

The authors demonstrate a statistical bootstrapping method for obtaining unbiased item selection and predictive validity estimates from a scale development sample, using data (N = 256) of Epperson et al. [2003 Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R) technical paper: Development, validation, and recommended risk level cut scores. Retrieved November 18, 2006 from Iowa State University Department of Psychology web site: http://www.psychology.iastate.edu/ approximately dle/mnsost_download.htm] from which the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R) was developed. Validity (area under receiver operating characteristic curve) reported by Epperson et al. was .77 with 16 items selected. The present analysis yielded an asymptotically unbiased estimator AUC = .58. The present article also focused on the degree to which sampling error renders estimated cutting scores (appropriate to local [varying] recidivism base rates) nonoptimal, so that the long-run performance (measured by correct fraction, the total proportion of correct classifications) of these estimated cutting scores is poor, when they are applied to their parent populations (having assumed values for AUC and recidivism rate). This was investigated by Monte Carlo simulation over a range of AUC and recidivism rate values. Results indicate that, except for the AUC values higher than have ever been cross-validated, in combination with recidivism base rates severalfold higher than the literature average [Hanson and Morton-Bourgon, 2004, Predictors of sexual recidivism: An updated meta-analysis. (User report 2004-02.). Ottawa: Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada], the user of an instrument similar in performance to the MnSOST-R cannot expect to achieve correct fraction performance notably in excess of what is achievable from knowing the population recidivism rate alone. The authors discuss the legal implications of their findings for procedural and substantive due process in relation to state sexually violent person commitment statutes and the Supreme Court's Kansas v. Hendricks decision regarding the constitutionality of such statutes.     

Contrasting simulated and empirical experiments in crime prevention

This paper argues that simulated experiments of crime prevention interventions are an important class of research methods that compare favorably with empirical experiments. It draws on Popper’s demarcation between science and non-science (Conjectures and refutations: the growth of scientific knowledge. Routledge, London, 1992) and Epstein’s principle of generative explanation (Generative social science: studies in agent-based computational modeling. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 2006) to show how simulated experiments can falsify theory. The paper compares simulated and empirical experiments and shows that simulations have strengths that empirical methods lack, but they also have important relative weaknesses. We identify three threats to internal validity and two forms of external validity peculiar to simulated experiments. The paper also looks at the problem of validating simulations with crime data and suggests that simulations need to mimic the error production processes involved in the creation of empirical data. It concludes by listing ways simulations can be used to improve empirical experiments and discussing the differing operating assumption of empirical and simulation experimentalists.

国外决策与执行分离对我国“行政三分制”改革的借鉴

自20世纪70年代末以来,西方各国掀起了一股新公共管理改革的潮流,其核心是将决策与执行分开,即设立执行局的做法。决策与执行分开属于行政机构内部纵向的管理职能的划分和转变,为当代行政体制的改革与发展提供了一种制度模式。研究西方政府决策与执行职能适度分离,对于我国的行政三分体制具有重要的借鉴意义。     

试论我国劳动合同的保证担保

在我国现实生活中,用人单位为防范求职者的诚信风险而要求其签定劳动合同保证的现象已大量存在,而劳动合同保证制度在法律上尚无明确的规定。在司法实务中,法官之间对劳动合同保证的性质及效力的认识存在巨大分歧,形成了不同的司法裁判意见,导致劳动合同保证纠纷裁判思路与适用法律混乱,已危及司法裁判权威、法律适用的统一性和严肃性。劳动合同保证其实就是一种特殊保证担保,我国的立法应当承认该类合同的效力,但应同时对其加以限制。     

Single-item predictive validity of the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) for violent behaviour in outpatient forensic psychiatry

The single-item predictive validity of the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) has not been thoroughly investigated, although this has great clinical relevance for the selection of treatment targets. Furthermore, it remains unclear whether the characteristic START additions of scoring strengths next to vulnerabilities and selecting key items, add incremental predictive validity. Finally, predictive validity has primarily been studied in inpatient settings and included mainly patients with a psychotic disorder. We analysed data from a mixed diagnostic sample of 195 forensic psychiatric outpatients with a 3-month and 170 patients with a 6-month follow-up period, using logistic regression analysis. The occurrence of violent or criminal behaviour was established based on the case manager’s recordings in the patient’s file. Only 5 of the 20 START items were found to have predictive validity: Impulse Control, Attitudes, Material Resources, Rule Adherence and Conduct. The last three were the only items for which incremental predictive validity was found with respect to scoring it as a strength and a vulnerability. Selection of key items did not add to the predictive validity. While possibly having therapeutic significance, the scoring of strength next to vulnerability and the selection of key items, may not be beneficial for risk assessment.     

Testing the three- and four-factor models of the Korean version PCL-R as predictors of two antisocial outcomes – recidivism and risk

Psychopathy has consistently been associated with antisocial outcomes. The three- and four-factor models have been best fitted to data relating to Korean serious offenders (N?=?451), offering construct validity of the Korean Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R). However, no study has yet tested the predictive power of the Korean PCL-R to explain two different types of antisocial outcomes: (1) risk of inmates measured by correctional officers during incarceration and (2) recidivism after release. By exploring these two forms of antisociality, here we sought to establish the predictive and construct validities of the Korean version of PCL-R. We found that the deviant lifestyle (Factor 3) performed best for predicting both antisocial forms (risk and recidivism) and that the deficits in interpersonal (Factor 1) and affective (Factor 2) abilities also uniquely predicted one subtype of risk, which suggests the three-factor model is better than the four-factor model in predictions. These findings will be useful for criminal justice experts and practitioners in Korea.     

试析中外专利无效争议之救济模式

由于专利的行政授予性,有关专利无效争议的性质应如何认定,相应地应采取何种救济模式,各国的规定并不相同.通过比较中国与世界上一些主要国家和国际组织的相关法律制度,挖掘问题的深层根由,进行理论分析,以期对我国专利无效争议机制的完善与重构有所裨益.     

论后次贷危机时期金融控股集团内部交易的法律监管

内部交易指金融企业集团内被监管实体直接或间接地与集团内其他实体履行契约性或非契约性、支付性或非支付性债务所进行的任何交易,在有积极意义的同时也带来潜在风险。金融控股集团内部交易的规范有赖于内控机制建设、外部监管、市场披露三个层面的共同作用。我国目前正在制定的《金融控股公司监管条例》正是通过对金融控股公司施加内部控制的法律义务来实现对金融控股集团内部交易的有效监管。