Asia's competing multilateral initiatives: quality versus quantity

East Asia has many distinctive features that set it apart from other comparable regions, not least attitudes to regional development and cooperation. Despite a growing number of regional initiatives in East Asia, however, they are generally distinguished by their ineffectiveness. It is entirely possible that ‘institutional balancing’, like its more well-known power balancing counterpart, is designed not to facilitate but to prevent something from happening. The sort of ‘multilateralism 1.0’ developed by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has a lot to answer for in this regard: having established its own pattern of institutional effectiveness ASEAN's ‘leadership’ has caused it to be replicated under the new wave of ‘multilateralism 2.0’. Consequently, I suggest that not only is China very comfortable with the idea of a rather feeble and ineffective institutional architecture, but the USA is also unlikely to do anything to change this picture, especially under a Trump administration that is highly skeptical about the efficacy of multilateral institutions at the best of times.     

China's dual strategy of coercion and inducement towards ASEAN

ABSTRACT

This article contributes to the discussion about China's divisive influence on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It argues that recent China–ASEAN relations are based on Beijing's successful implementation of a dual strategy of coercion and inducement. The effectiveness of this strategy is tested against the South China Sea disputes – the issue that lies in the core of regional security and a key platform of power display. The article outlines Beijing's recent interaction with individual ASEAN member-states and its implications for the regional multilateral diplomacy. While by no means identical, Beijing's dual strategy of coercion and inducement with individual ASEAN states have resulted in an effective abuse of the ASEAN consensus principle – a tactic often referred to as ‘divide and rule’. Consequently, the group's internal discord has further eroded and affected the institutional confidence of ASEAN. This article draws attention to the psychological effect of coercion as a perception of punishment, and inducement as a perception of reward.     

Impact of FDI on Inbound Business Tourism——Empirical Research Based on Spatial Econometrics

This paper studies the spatial distribution features of FDI and Inbound Business Tourism (IBT) in China, as well as the relationship between them using the spatial autocorrelation model and spatial panel econometric model. The research shows that FDI and IBT are consistent in spatial distribution which is in the core-edge mode. Both of FDI and IBT show a positive spatial correlation. LISA charts shows that the two are in the two element distribution structure，forming a “club” gathering model and presents the phenomenon of “inside” convergence. The spatial econometric model estimation shows that the development of IBT in adjacent areas has a strong spillover effect and FDI has positive effect on IBT. IBT grows by 0.3855% with every 1% growth in FDI. The comparative analysis of the three regions shows that the effects of FDI on IBT and geographical spillover effects of IBT are as follows: East＞ Middle＞ West.     

FDI in small states and unattractive markets: the case of São Tomé and Príncipe

ABSTRACT

Studies on Small States, ‘unattractive’ markets, namely those from Africa, are very scarce. São Tomé and Príncipe (STP), a Small State, insular economy, has had considerable momentum in attracting FDI in the last decade albeit its geographical and demographic constraints and relative weak economic growth. The current study uncovers the potential determinants of FDI in unattractive markets using STP as a case study. Based on (robust) logistic estimations on a sample of 56 Portuguese companies that have trade relations with African countries, we show that in the case of Small States economies and unattractive markets, the relevance of institutional factors and resource seeking strategies surpass internalisation and location factors related to market size and dynamics. We further uncovered that foreign companies’ characteristics, namely size and (general) human capital, are critical in explaining companies’ likelihood to invest in an ‘unattractive’ market.     

A community of practice: explaining change and continuity in ASEAN's diplomatic environment

Despite change in the aims, institutions and informal diplomacy of ASEAN since 1997, the formal diplomatic code of conduct remains locked in a traditionalist mode first outlined in the 1970s. Existing approaches from mainstream International Relations theorising are unable to adequately explain this continuity and change. The recent ‘practice turn’ in theorising offers distinct explanatory advantage, which this article illustrates by arguing that the formation of an ‘ASEAN rationality’ between 1967 and 1997 fundamentally curtailed the ability of regional diplomats to revise ASEAN post 1997, resulting in the coexistence of new and old norms in ASEAN's organisation design.     

2014年缅甸政治发展

2015年的缅甸总统选举、2014年的缅甸人口普查和2014年缅甸首任东盟轮值主席为2014年缅甸政治发展的三个主题——修改宪法以削弱军人对权力的控制、赋予少数民族更多的权利、修改国籍法让更多多年居住缅甸的人享有基本的公民权——的展开提供了强有力的刺激。从目前的进展看,缅甸政治发展的前景并不让人乐观,甚至让人有些绝望。     

安全观与东盟气候变化认知及政策

东南亚是世界上最易受到气候变化影响的地区之一。作为东南亚重要的地区一体化组织,东盟应对气候变化的政策受到越来越多的关注。作为对基于物质条件与能力的解释的补充,从观念的影响出发可以为理解东盟气候变化安全认知与应对政策提供一个新的视角。由于地理暴露度与社会经济脆弱性,东盟面临着高度的气候变化风险。而东盟如何认知与应对气候变化风险带来的安全威胁,除了受到客观条件的影响外,还受到其综合安全观的框定作用。在综合安全现的影响下,东盟对气候变化安全的认知与应对表现出三个特征,即将气候变化安全诠释为实现可持续发展问题、采取多领域综合性应对措施以及鼓励多元化主体参与。目前,东盟的主导安全观是以国家为中心的综合安全观,但随着"人的安全"思想影响的增强,东盟气候变化认知与应对正在发生微妙变化。     

Prospects for China-ASEAN Relations

正TERRITORIAL disputes in the South China Sea between China and ASEAN countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines notwithstanding,China-ASEAN relations remain very much on the track of peaceful development,mutual-benefit,and win-win cooperation.China recently raised new proposals on handling tensions in the South China Sea,so further diminishing possibilities that the issue     

日本-东盟自由贸易区的进程与前景

为适应世界性区域经济一体化的浪潮,日本制定了FTA战略,确定优先与东盟建立自由贸易区的目标.日本-东盟自由贸易区的建立,将对东亚区域经济一体化的进程产生重要的影响.     

东盟国家的安全合作及其影响

东盟国家安全合作的目的是借助合作,实现优势互补,提高军队的作战能力,以镇压内乱和加强边境联防,共同抵御边界和海上的各种威胁。东盟成员间的安全合作主要围绕东盟地区论坛、成员国建立信任措施、南中国海争端、地区低烈度威胁及军事和防务等领域开展。东盟的安全合作是积极防御性质的合作,它将有利于亚太多边安全机制的建立。