地方政府债务的效应及形成机制新探

地方政府债务是在我国社会主义市场经济体制改革进程中,伴随着计划经济体制向市场经济体制的转轨和政府职能的转换而产生的一种社会经济现象。地方政府债务包括地方政府从商业银行获得的贷款、中央政府将国债部分收入转贷给地方政府和地方政府为企业担保等形成的隐性债务等。地方政府债务的迅速膨胀已对社会经济发展产生了诸多负面影响。这种债务的形成和扩张既有显性的正式预算制度的制约,也有非正式预算制度、地方政府间财政竞争和地方政府债务动态发展机制等因素的拉动。     

Parties as pay-off seekers: Pre-electoral coalitions in a patronage democracy

The study of party coalitions largely focuses on national elections in western democracies. How are coalitions formed in political systems in which competition occurs on a clientelistic rather than programmatic foundation? To examine coalition formation outside the context of western party systems, we study pre-electoral coalitions formed in subnational executive government elections in Indonesia. Using a unique dataset of 5048 such coalitions in combination with fieldwork conducted in several provinces, we analyze coalition patterns. In contrast to conventional ideological and office-seeking explanations we find that, at least until recently, in forming coalitions parties regularly prioritized immediate pay-offs from candidates – which mostly come in the form of cash payments – over longer-term office and patronage benefits. Attributing this finding to the limited influence that parties exert over politicians once they are elected in regional Indonesia, we highlight the interaction between coalition formation and the incentives that politicians have once in office.     

政法工作应当树立和落实科学发展观

科学发展观作为一种社会长治久安观,将对我国的治安管理和犯罪预防产生深刻的、积极的影响。政法部门在管理社会治安和预防犯罪过程中,应当树立和落实科学的发展观,必须以与时俱进的精神和科学发展观来指导政法工作,正确处理好改革、发展、稳定三者关系,使治安管理和犯罪预防战略与经济社会发展战略相协调,在体制、机制、法制上加以变更和不断完善,努力探索科学、有效的社会治安管理和犯罪预防的思想、途径、内容等,提高政法工作的效益和效率。     

论我国社区矫正的立法及机构和队伍建设

社区矫正的试点和发展迫切需要制定地方性法规 ,这是社区矫正工作发展的法律保障 ;而社区矫正管理机构的科学设定和建设一支专业化的社区矫正队伍是我国社区矫正成功的关键。     

二战后日本的地域史研究

二战后,日本史学界以国内某行政区或某历史区域为对象的地域史研究取得了丰硕成果。战后初期,出于根除皇国史观等的影响及修正历史教育的需要,学界开始推动地域史研究。地方史研究协议会的成立为相关研究者、研究机构间的协作提供了平台。战后初期的地方史研究对战前乡土史进行了批判,并以唯物史观为基本理论框架,侧重社会经济史研究。1970年前后,日本地域史研究得到飞速发展。各地的地方史研究会相继成立;地方史料的发掘、保存、公开活动取得巨大成果;研究方法、理论的探讨亦形成一定体系。20世纪80年代末以来,地域史研究在目的、方法、视角上有诸多转变,逐渐摆脱附属于整体史的地位而走向自立。二战后日本地域史研究成果数量庞大、类型多样,但也存在不少问题,如资料收集和研究的片面性、研究成果良莠不齐等。     

Leader Effects and Voting for the Populist Radical Right in Western Europe

Charismatic leaders are often assumed to drive the electoral success of populist radical right parties. Yet, little attention is given to how voter evaluations of leaders influence individual voting behavior. To our knowledge, no systematic and comparative tests of this empirical question exist. In this paper, we test to what extent voters’ support for populist radical right parties is fueled by leaders' appreciation. In order to examine leader effects on the populist radical right vote, we rely on an original dataset pooling 29 National Election Studies from ten established West European parliamentary democracies (1985‐2018). Our analysis finds that: (1) voters’ evaluation of party leaders is significantly associated with voting for populist radical right parties; (2) leader evaluations are more important than left‐right self‐placement when it comes to voting for the populist radical right, and (3) leader effects are more important for populist radical right voters than for other voters.     

The Sound of Rebellion: Voting Dissent and Legislative Speech in the UK House of Commons

Using data on the content of debate associated with votes in the UK House of Commons from 1992–2015, this article examines how government party MPs employ language in legislative speech when they vote against the party line. We find a robust statistical association between dissent on votes and the use of first-person pronouns, simpler language, and giving longer speeches. Using a random forest algorithm for classification, we find that these language covariates are predictive of rebellion. The use of simpler, first-person language has implications for political representation and offers new insight into how MPs use votes to distinguish themselves from their party, perhaps reflecting attempts to connect with constituents.     

行政服务中心:理论溯源、演进历程与未来展望

行政服务中心是实现政府治理现代化的重要载体,厘清行政服务中心的本质属性、理论依据和发展演进历程是推动行政服务中心规范建设的必然要求。本文从行政服务中心的概念界定入手诠释了其本质属性,从新公共管理理论、新公共服务理论和公共治理理论三个视角探讨了行政服务中心的理论依据,从顶层设计、调试运行和增质提效三个阶段梳理了我国行政服务中心发展演进的基本路径,在此基础上对我国行政服务中心未来发展的重点进行了展望。     

The times they are a-changin’: party campaign strategies in the 2018 Italian election

Abstract

The 2018 Italian election produced striking results, with both a historic success for the two challenger parties (League and M5S) and massive defeats for the two mainstream parties (PD and FI). This article analyses party campaign strategies and their consistency with the opportunity structures provided by the configuration of Italian public opinion. Relying on issue-yield theory, original survey data were collected for both issue support and priority among Italian voters, and party emphases on issues in the electoral campaign – through Twitter data. The findings indicate a generalised ideological inconsistency of the constituencies of the main parties, while campaign strategies appear much more ideologically consistent. Moreover, it is found that parties focused mostly on conflict-mobilisation strategies, rather than on problem solving. Finally, the article shows that, in general, parties acted strategically, by aligning their campaign to the available opportunities, although with relevant variations across parties.     

Street Trees,the Private Finance Initiative and Participatory Regeneration: Policy Innovation or Incompatible Perspectives

In common with other northern cities, Sheffield has experienced a dramatic reduction in funding from central government. Its response has been twofold. Firstly, to reduce the cost of service delivery, in part through augmenting or replacing public sector service provision through transfer to voluntary bodies and/or the private sector; the latter through private finance initiative (PFI) contracts. Secondly, the local authority has sought to promote economic regeneration through increased citizen involvement and participation. The problem for this combined strategy is that the two approaches have clashed over a previously underrated and overlooked area of public provision, namely the maintenance of street trees. Issues relating to the design of the contract, the economic imperative inherent within PFI contracts, initial reaction to popular protests, and reluctance to acknowledge the authority of alternative perspectives, have combined to undermine the salience of the participatory regeneration model for key sections of the local community.