威胁我国安全的恐怖主义特点分析

恐怖主义对我国的威胁日益突出，对国家安全、社会稳定和人民生命财产安全构成了严重危害。威胁的主要来源，一是国际恐怖势力和极端组织实施的恐怖活动；二是境内外民族分裂势力实施的恐怖活动；三是邪教组织实施的恐怖活动；四是黑社会等严重刑事犯罪组织和其他极端分子实施的恐怖活动。威胁我国安全的恐怖主义除了具有一般恐怖主义的政治性、暴力性、刑事违法性等共同特征以外，还具有主体结构多元、国际背景复杂、宗教色彩浓厚、组织运作联合、方式手段诡秘、发展态势趋强等突出特点。     

非洲恐怖袭击时空规律的大数据分析——基于GIS技术和分离总体持续期模型

大数据及其分析技术的发展极大地推动了国际关系研究的发展,使得传统国际关系研究无法完成的任务变为可能。恐怖主义是当今全球治理中重大而棘手的问题,也是国际关系领域长期关注的议题。本文运用海量事件数据和地理信息系统(GIS)技术,将恐怖袭击的地理单元细粒化到以0.5×0.5经纬度作为分辨率的时空网格,寻找微观分析单元上恐怖袭击的时空规律,并运用分离总体持续期模型对恐怖袭击风险的空间分布和发生时机进行解释和预测。通过对非洲10674个时空网格在1994-2013年间恐怖袭击的时空特征进行分析,本文对非洲恐怖袭击发生时机进行精准捕捉,对恐袭地点进行细粒化定位,并对恐袭地理分布进行疫区与免疫区区分,不但深化了对恐怖主义的认识,而且提高了恐袭预测的精度和实际应用价值。本文的研究尝试表明,在大数据时代进行国际关系研究,不仅要充分利用海量数据提供的前所未有的丰富信息,更要选择和运用恰当的统计技术对复杂时空相关性进行细粒度分析,从而形成有效的创新路径。     

闭路电视监控器与大型公共交通系统反恐问题研究

伦敦地铁爆炸事件、西班牙马德里火车站爆炸事件等一系列袭击公共交通系统的恐怖事件,使人们越来越关注大型公共交通系统的安全和防范问题。大型公共交通系统由于流量大,无法运用航空系统的安全检查模式。在大型公共交通系统安装闭路监控器,恰恰可以在不影响这些大流量公共交通工具运行速度和效率的情况下,有效地起到安全防范的作用。英国和美国在大型公共交通系统安装闭路电视监控器的经验和模式,可以为我国大型公共交通系统的安全防范提供借鉴和参考。     

The Myth of the Failed State and the War on Terror: A Challenge to the Conventional Wisdom

Abstract

A central hypothesis in the articulated rationale inspiring the war on terror suggests that failed states play a key role in the international terrorist nexus and require external intervention and guided democratization. This logic is based on two related premises; first that there is a direct link between failed states and international terrorism, second that democratic governance reduces the recourse to terrorism. This article suggests that there is no causal link between failed states and international terrorism and that the asserted ability of democratic governance to catalyze a reduction in terrorism is exaggerated if not wholly inaccurate.     

The Transformation of Security Planning for the Olympics: The 1976 Montreal Games

Montreal's Summer Olympics in 1976 was a turning point in Olympic history: it was the Games' first highly visible security operation. It was also a transformative moment in the history of security planning in Canada: preparations for the games contributed to shifting the Security Services' focus from communism towards domestic and international terrorism. The following article documents, for the first time, the scope of this operation. It is based on five years of requests and appeals under the federal Access to Information Act, which led to the release of over fifty thousand pages of Royal Canadian Mounted Police documents. I argue that security for the Montreal Olympics was based largely on imagined threats. In addition, I argue that security costs for the Montreal Olympics were high but modest as compared to the overall budget. Nonetheless, Montreal set a precedent for high security costs that have since become the standard for hosting the Olympics. Finally, I argue that the Montreal Olympics had long-term implications for policing in Canada. The scale of the operation produced new resources and inter-agency links that were only made possible as a result of hosting the games.