自杀性恐怖袭击的防范与治理研究

自“9·11”事件后,自杀性恐怖袭击已成为恐怖活动的主要方式。深层次的情报搜集,理论上的揭露与批判,加强金融监管和理性的媒体战略是杜绝自杀性恐怖袭击的四大“利器”,而构建合理的国际政治经济新秩序,朝向公平与正义则是铲除恐怖主义滋生土壤的根本。     

闭路电视监控器与大型公共交通系统反恐问题研究

伦敦地铁爆炸事件、西班牙马德里火车站爆炸事件等一系列袭击公共交通系统的恐怖事件,使人们越来越关注大型公共交通系统的安全和防范问题。大型公共交通系统由于流量大,无法运用航空系统的安全检查模式。在大型公共交通系统安装闭路监控器,恰恰可以在不影响这些大流量公共交通工具运行速度和效率的情况下,有效地起到安全防范的作用。英国和美国在大型公共交通系统安装闭路电视监控器的经验和模式,可以为我国大型公共交通系统的安全防范提供借鉴和参考。     

Radicalism of the Hopeless: Refugee Flows and Transnational Terrorism

We examine whether refugee flows increase transnational terrorism in states to which refugees flee. Recent studies find that refugee flows contribute to the spread of interstate and civil war, but to a far lesser extent have studies examined how refugee flows could lead to other forms of political violence. We discuss two ways in which refugee flows can lead to transnational terrorism: how conditions in camps contribute to the radicalization of refugees; and how poorly host states treat refugees. We then conduct empirical tests using data on worldwide international refugee flows and transnational terrorism. Specifically, we model the effect of refugee flows on transnational terror attacks within a directed dyad framework to account for characteristics of origin and host states. Using a rare-events logit model, along with count models to check robustness, we find that refugee flows significantly increase the likelihood and counts of transnational terrorist attacks that occur in the host country, even when controlling for other variables. Given the prominence of refugee flows and populations worldwide, the results suggest that states with significant refugee populations and the international community at large should take measures to address the conditions in refugee camps, as well as the treatment of refugees by host states in order to prevent transnational terrorism.     

The Impact of the Boston Marathon Bombings on Public Willingness to Cooperate with Police

While a key to law enforcement success is the willingness of the public to cooperate with police, we have limited understanding of how terrorist attacks affect this public readiness. Prior research suggests that terrorist attacks might increase citizen cooperation with police through both prevention efforts and rally effects. We test these assertions with three nationally representative surveys on respondents’ willingness to help police combat terrorism: one before the Boston Marathon bombings and two after. As predicted, public willingness to report suspicious behavior to police increases significantly following the bombings and there is evidence that these increases generalize to ordinary crime. We also find that knowledge of key counter terrorism programs increases after the bombings, effects are somewhat stronger for the New England area than other regions, and the strength of the results are greatly diminished 16 months after the attacks. Conclusions are similar for both panel and cross-sectional analyses.     

Lone‐actor Terrorism and Impulsivity

In some recent cases of lone‐actor terrorism, there is evidence the subject acted impulsively, often in response to a triggering event which contained a loss and humiliation. Evidence suggests the subjects acted precipitously, despite planning and preparation carried out in the preceding weeks or months, and their attacks failed to include the often considerable preparation that had been done. The pathway became a runway. The authors recommend the traditional assessment of impulsivity in persons of concern for lone acts of terrorism, as well as other proximal warning behaviors for targeted violence. Both indirect and direct assessment guidelines are proposed, with an emphasis upon self‐report, psychological testing, collateral data gathering, and historical records.     

走出国际反恐怖主义的误区

日益猖獗的恐怖主义活动 ,反映出国际反恐怖斗争存在着诸多问题 ,既有对恐怖主义范围界定不明确 ,在打击恐怖活动中治标不治本的问题 ,也有某些国家运用恐怖手段打击恐怖主义 ,以及以反恐怖为借口干涉他国内政的行为。这些问题的存在使国际反恐怖斗争步入误区。若要走出国际反恐怖主义的误区 ,必须回顾历史 ,吸取教训 ,改变国际反恐怖战略     

《孙子兵法》与我国反恐策略

在防范和打击针对我国的恐怖主义活动中,《孙子兵法》中的某些思想具有重要的指导和借鉴作用。我国应以“全胜”为目标,灵活运用孙子的谋略思想,制定出符合我国实际情况的反恐策略。在国内,加强和谐社会建设,努力消除恐怖主义活动可利用的不利因素,加强针对性的预防、打击措施和应急处置体系建设,努力将恐怖主义活动消灭在萌芽状态;在国际上,继续扩展和巩固国际反恐合作,尤其是中亚地区各国的国际反恐合作,壮大国际反恐阵营。     

析恐怖主义犯罪与危害国家安全犯罪——以新疆恐怖主义犯罪为例

在新疆。恐怖主义犯罪与危害国家安全犯罪行为人实施犯罪的目的基本相同。但二者在构成要件、活动特点和法律适用方面都有本质的区别．由于我国现行刑事法律关于恐怖主义犯罪罪名设置的缺陷及程序法的缺乏等原因。导致法院在审理此类案件时大多以危害国家安全罪、犯罪行为人实施的犯罪行为触碰的刑法中相关的普通刑事罪名处以刑罚。这不仅抹杀了恐怖犯罪与危害国家安全犯罪、普通刑事犯罪的界限,而且导致我们在寻求国际刑事司法协助时遇到障碍。因此。厘清恐怖主义犯罪与危害国家安全犯罪的界限是准确、有效打击恐怖主义犯罪的前提。     

聚焦恐怖主义及反恐怖模糊区

恐怖主义如果仅仅是犯罪活动,那么反恐怖工作的主要任务在于收集犯罪证据,指控犯罪行为,缉捕犯罪嫌疑人;恐怖主义如果仅仅是战争行为,那么反恐怖工作的主要任务在于确认敌人身份,宣布战争状态,发动攻击行动。然而事实上,严密的恐怖组织往往使得侦查活动几乎无法开展,对恐怖主义的犯罪行为自然无法指控。同时,有些恐怖组织目的不明、组织不清,甚至名称从未披露,又使得战争目标无法锁定。因此,单纯将恐怖主义作为犯罪活动或战争行为的观点带来的是反恐怖工作"死角"。本文认为:恐怖主义随着社会的发展而变化,单纯的司法措施、军事行动或政治策略都不足以揭示恐怖主义的变化特征,更无法契应恐怖活动的权变;反恐怖工作的范围要清晰界定,否则全社会的反恐怖动员会过多地影响其他人群的正常生活,甚至还可能助长恐怖主义气氛的蔓延;反恐怖工作情报是国家行动的前提,对恐怖组织的确定、目标搜寻与锁定需要精准的情报,这往往决定了反恐怖工作的成败。     

Reshaping Cultural Heritage Protection Policies at a Time of Securitisation: France,Italy, and the United Kingdom

In the context of the increasing securitisation of cultural heritage, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom have reacted differently to the recent wave of iconoclasm perpetrated by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and similar radical groups and terrorist organisations. With cultural heritage now discursively identified as a security concern, the three states enacted security practices to deal with the newly emerged security threats. All three cases show a tight association between the protection of cultural heritage, development and security policies. State-driven cultural heritage protection policies continue to be designed around the notion of multilateral cooperation, although innovative forms of public-private multilateralism and civil-military cooperation are increasingly being introduced.