Guinea‐Bissau's rocky path to peace and democracy

Nepad has helped to world to focus on Africa's challenges and potential successes rather than the negatives.     

The Transformation of Israel's Extreme Right

The extreme right in Israel was traditionally defined by its hawkish views on the occupied territories and the Arab-Israeli conflict. The decline of this political camp in the 1999 national elections brought many to the conclusion that the Israeli extreme right had died. The main argument of this article is that the king is dead - long live the king. Despite the popular belief that the extreme right in Israel is on the decline, the second wave of right-wing extremism is already here in a stronger and more prevalent form. By accepting a broader definition of the extreme right, it can be concluded that twenty percent of Israeli parliament members represent ideas similar to those of the European extreme right, especially antidemocracy and xenophobia.     

Middle Eastern terrorism in Europe: Trends and prospects

Abstract

Europe has been the preferred operational area for Middle Eastern terrorist groups—some 418 attacks from 1980–1989. Unlike European Marxist revolutionary or separatist terrorist groups, the Middle Eastern groups present Europe with a regional security problem. The most dangerous element in this Middle Eastern terrorist threat is the state‐sponsored activities of Iran, Libya, Syria, and Iraq. These countries provided the fuel for a decade of Middle Eastern terrorist bloodshed in Europe. Given the problems of solving the various political conflicts and feuds in the Middle East and the continuing attractiveness of Europe as a substitute battlefield for Middle Eastern terrorist elements, the threat of Middle Eastern terrorist activity in Europe should continue into the 1990s.     

对国际恐怖主义的几点思考

冷战后恐怖主义的泛滥,破坏了国际社会的稳定与发展,损害了人类的基本利益。究其原因,民族种族矛盾上升,宗教冲突加剧,一些国家经济社会危机深化和国际社会力量对比失衡等,是恐怖主义在一些国家和地区猖獗的根源。由于恐怖主义具有跨国威胁的危险,加强国际合作成为有效打击恐怖活动的必要条件。     

刍议反恐对策及技术手段

恐怖主义是当今世界的一大公害,对国际社会的安全与稳定构成了严重威胁。恐怖主义的产生是由于多方面的原因引起的。面对不同类型恐怖主义的挑战,必须有针对性地制定反恐对策,有效运用各种技术手段,从而最终战胜恐怖主义。     

中国反恐怖主义对策初探

恐怖主义活动因其具有恐惧性、暴力性和犯罪性的特点 ,往往会给社会安全造成严重后果。为有效地防止和打击恐怖主义犯罪 ,中国需要一部以“非政治化”、“协同作战、分工负责”、“加强国际合作”等为基本原则的综合性反恐法。在公安部设立反恐局 ,统一领导全国反恐工作。建立以公安机关为主 ,其他有关部门互相配合的分级式反恐组织机构 ,并设置专门的人员编制 ,由中央提供必要的装备和经费     

论谈判在反恐怖劫持人质行动中的价值

保证人质及其他人的生命安全是警方处置恐怖劫持人质事件追求的目的。谈判是其中一个非常重要的环节。能够尽量避免恐怖劫持事件事态的恶化和升级,最大限度地保全人质、行动警员、恐怖劫持分子以及一些无辜人的生命,亦具公众安全心理安抚效应,体现了现代生活的价值理念。对警方不得不实施的武力解救行动来说,谈判是非常重要的准备工作和寻求赢得有利战机的手段     

论反恐中的人权保障

恐怖主义犯罪是一种极端的犯罪形式,各国政府对于恐怖主义犯罪普遍采取一系列特殊的措施,如运用监听监控等特殊的侦查手段,软化司法审查程序,延长羁押期限等,这些措施往往克减权利或者限制权利,与人权保障相冲突。因此,应统一反恐中的人权保障标准,严格遵循反恐特殊措施的适用原则,建立相应的赔偿救济手段,最低限度地克减权利或限制权利,保障人权。     

美洲国家组织反恐法律述评

美洲国家组织反恐法律中关于国际恐怖主义犯罪概念的界定,虽然能直接触及恐怖主义犯罪的本质内容,但单纯以罗列主义的立法形式难免存在粗疏或琐碎的弊端;对恐怖主义犯罪的非政治化及或引渡或起诉原则之规定,有其合理性的一面,但限制颇多,需要完善;关于恐怖主义犯罪案件中的国际刑事司法协助及保障恐怖犯罪嫌疑人权利之规定,值得称道,对国际社会完善反恐法律具有启示意义。     

TESTING A RATIONAL CHOICE MODEL OF AIRLINE HIJACKINGS*

Using data that combines information from the Federal Aviation Administration, the RAND Corporation and a newly developed database on global terrorist activity, we are able to examine trends in 1,101 attempted aerial hijackings that occurred around the world from 1931 to 2003. We have especially complete information for 828 hijackings that occurred before 1986. Using a rational choice theoretical framework, we use continuous‐time survival analysis to estimate the impact of several major counterhijacking interventions on the hazard of differently motivated hijacking attempts and logistic regression analysis to model the predictors of successful hijackings. Some of these interventions use certainty‐based strategies of target hardening to reduce the perceived likelihood of success. Others focus on raising the perceived costs of hijacking by increasing the severity of punishment. We also assess which strategies were most effective in deterring hijackers whose major purpose was related to terrorism. We found support for the conclusion that new hijacking attempts were less likely to be undertaken when the certainty of apprehension was increased through metal detectors and law enforcement at passenger checkpoints. We also found that fewer hijackers attempted to divert airliners to Cuba once that country made it a crime to hijack flights. Our results support the contagion view that hijacking rates significantly increase after a series of hijackings closely clustered in time—but only when these attempts were successful. Finally, we found that the policy interventions examined here significantly decreased the likelihood of nonterrorist but not that of terrorist hijackings.