江泽民对毛泽东军事思想和邓小平新时期军队建设思想的创造性发展

江泽民以巨大的理论勇气和创新精神,结合当今时代特征和我国现代化建设的基本情况,着眼世界军事的发展趋势,创造性地发展了毛泽东军事思想和邓小平新时期军队建设思想,主要有:揭示了新时期我军建设的主要矛盾;提出了“两个根本性转变”的战略指导思想;提出了新的国家安全观;确立了新时期我军建设的发展道路;首次提出了国防建设发展战略;指出了国防建设与经济建设相互促进、协调发展的关键环节;提出了健全和完善国防法规体系的思想。     

Bases That Leave: Consequences of US Base Closures and Realignments in South Korea

ABSTRACT

Contrary to ample attention on American military base closures at home, the consequences of base closures abroad remain under-examined even as the American military continues to adjust its global force posture. South Korea, the third biggest host of US military bases overseas, is an under-investigated case despite offering useful insights applicable to other US base hosts. This article examines short-term local-level consequences of US base departures in South Korea, with a focus on environmental and redevelopment challenges that shape the political and economic fate of former base sites. Detailed analyses and interviews on the oft-overlooked fate of multiple post-military sites draw a rather unsettling picture: Most sites remain empty, temporarily deserted and heavily contaminated spaces plagued by redevelopment difficulties. When overseas American bases are closed, they leave problems behind and those problems persist long after base sites return to host communities.     

俄罗斯军事干预叙利亚危机的情感动机

俄罗斯自2015年9月30日开始军事干预叙利亚危机。目前,国内外学术界主要采取理性分析路径讨论俄罗斯军事干预叙利亚的动机,即认为俄罗斯是基于对利益的考虑而采取军事干预行动的。文章从情感角度考察俄罗斯的干预行为,认为俄罗斯的行动主要是受到对美国不满的驱动,因为美国干预叙利亚危机造成了对俄罗斯大国身份的蔑视。冷战后俄与西方之间的长期互动,使得俄面临"身份遭到蔑视"状态,从而形成针对西方的消极、压抑的"情感定向";而美国在叙利亚危机中的行为,进一步使俄感知到了对其身份的蔑视,从而激发了俄罗斯的"道德悲愤"和"羞辱"等"指向情绪反应"。在该情感的影响下,俄决定实施军事干预叙利亚危机这一"复仇"行为,其目的即在于警告西方不要再做出蔑视俄身份及情感的行为并重塑俄的身份和尊严。明晰俄军事干预叙利亚危机的行为逻辑,能为掌握俄罗斯与西方之间关系的发展前景以及中国在构建"一带一路"的过程中如何与俄罗斯相处等问题提供一定的启发。     

Why Geographically-Targeted Spending Under Closed-List Proportional Representation Favors Marginal Districts

Research on geographically-targeted spending under closed-list proportional representation (CLPR) is characterized by debate over whether ruling parties target core supporters or swing voters. We show that when CLPR is used in multiple districts and separate competitions are conducted in each, parties can reverse the formula through which votes are converted into seats to calculate how many additional votes they need to capture an additional seat. This enables parties to rank districts according to how close they are to winning an additional seat. We then show that under divisor-based formulae, parties will find they need fewer additional votes to capture another seat in districts where they captured fewer seats (‘marginal districts’). We posit that in these systems, ruling parties will steer geographically-targeted spending toward marginal PR districts and we present evidence of this from Japan.     

The transformation of hi no maru in postwar Okinawa: from symbol of hope to object of contempt

Starting in the early 1950s, the Japanese flag hi no maru was a cherished symbol in Okinawa of the movement for an end to the postwar U.S. military occupation and reversion to Japanese sovereignty. The flag represented an appeal for liberation from U.S. military rule that dragged on for twenty years (1945–1972) after mainland Japan regained its sovereignty in 1952; and, for elimination, or at least reduction, of the overwhelming size and number of American bases on the island. However, the 1969 Okinawa Reversion Agreement between the U.S. and Japanese governments broke both of the Japanese government’s promises that, after reversion, Okinawa would have no nuclear weapons, and that U.S. bases would be reduced to mainland levels. The grossly disproportionate U.S. military remains to this day, and a “secret agreement” permits the United States to bring back nuclear weapons. Today many in Okinawa associate hi no maru with this discriminatory policy which imposes 74 percent of the total U.S. military presence in Japan on this small island prefecture comprising 0.2 percent of the nation’s land area. For historians, the flag also represents atrocities committed by Imperial Japanese soldiers during the Pacific War and the Japanese government’s continuing reluctance to acknowledge them.     

国家安全新需求与军事理论创新

军事发展需要先进的军事理论作为引领和指导。具有穿透力和前瞻性的军事理论研究，不仅必须在充分借鉴国内外已有研究成果和实践经验的基础上，同时还必须关注国际安全背景的演变及其带来的限制条件的变化，把握重大问题发展演变的内在线索和逻辑，并形成系统性和可验证的知识体系。只有国家现代化才有军事学术的现代化，而学术现代化又反过来助推国家战略能力的提升。新时代国家安全需求为军事理论发展创造了更广阔的空间，加上中华文明丰厚的战略思想遗产可资借鉴，今天的军事理论创新具有十分有利的条件。在新军事革命浪潮中，理论研究不能迷失方向，要在历史、现实和未来之间架起有益的桥梁，这样才能跟踪战争形态演变，理解战争制胜机理，准确把握当代战争的特点和规律，提出具有指向性、系统性的军事思想，也才能使军事斗争准备真正反映当代战争的本质要求。战略是决定国家命运的关键要素。历史发展证明，殖民主义、霸权主义的老路已经行不通，中国要走出一条不同于传统权力争霸的和平发展道路，对军事能力建设及其运用提出了相应的更高要求，也需要军事实践和理论的强有力支撑，并必然成为理论创新的重要动力来源。     

Measuring Military Effectiveness: Calculating Casualty Loss-Exchange Ratios for Multilateral Wars, 1816–1990

In this article, we introduce and utilize a new dataset that provides battle- and war- level Loss Exchange Ratios (LERs) for combatant states involved in multilateral wars between 1816 and 1990.The battle-level data provide an alternative to the widely used, but problematic, HERO/CDB-90 data set on battle outcomes. To demonstrate the utility of the new data, we weigh in on the debate over democratic military effectiveness arguments by replicating models by Reiter and Stam (2002, 2009) and Downes (2009), finding that, when effectiveness is measured using LERs, democracies do not have an edge over their non-democratic counterparts.     

关于军队律师制度的几个问题

国家律师制度的发展和完善，依法治军的需要，为军队律师制度的产生和发展提供了良好的契机，应尽快完善现行军队律师制度。建议明确军队律师的性质、确立军队法律顾问处的地位、恰当处理军队律师的收费。这对发挥军队律师的作用，实现依法治军，具有重要意义。     

军警人员抢劫的法定刑适用问题新论

现行刑法在抢劫罪中规定了冒充军警人员抢劫为加重处罚情节，学界一边倒地认为，军警人员抢劫法益侵害性更大，要实现罪刑相适应就应升格其法定刑，并围绕于此形成了“立法论”和“解释论”。但其前提并不成立，从主观恶性、社会影响和抢劫罪特性只能得出冒充军警人员抢劫的法益侵害性大于军警人员抢劫的结论，现行立法符合罪刑相适应原则。立法并不完全是理论逻辑的演绎，更多是司法经验的类型化，量刑身份加重处罚不应当被泛化。