(Re-)Assessing Career Patterns in Multi-Level Systems: Insights from Wallonia in Belgium

This article proposes a new analytical framework for the study of political careers in multi-level systems. It is argued that the study of vertical movements between political arenas, which constitutes the prevalent methodological approach in the literature on political careers, should be complemented by the study of horizontal movements within political arenas. Based on a longitudinal analysis of individual political careers, the micro-approach developed in this article allows the comprehension of all territorial dynamics of political careers in multi-level systems. Based on an in-depth case study of all 419 Walloon careers in Belgium, four career patterns are identified: national careers, regional careers, multi-level careers and discrete careers. Although Belgium presents an integrated structure of opportunity, it is demonstrated that key evidences underline the prevalence of a regional and a national political class along a highly integrated political elites.     

在必然代替与必须利用的失衡中折翅——苏联解体的两制关系视角解读与反思

苏联在两制关系问题上长期处于一种失衡状态,斯大林时期片面强调必然代替而忽视必须利用,导致苏联社会主义建设艰难困苦,经济失力;戈尔巴乔夫时期,苏联在实践上滑入单纯注重必须利用而忽视必然代替的泥潭,这直接引发苏联上层建筑领域的波动,导致政治失向。中国特色社会主义建设必须深刻汲取苏联的教训,在必然代替与必须利用的平衡中壮大自身。     

中国第二次继受大陆法系与罗马法教学的转型简

清末中国第一次继受大陆法系,实际上继受的是这一法系中的德国法族,中国对于拉丁法族的继受开始于1989年意大利和中国订立法学交流协议后,从此,有70多名学者受教于意大利大学以及拉丁关洲国家的大学,把拉丁法族的精髓带入中国,形成中国德国学派和拉丁学派争鸣的格局,完成了对大陆法系的全面继受。第一次继受是被迫的;第二次继受是自愿的、和平的。由于第二次继受,中国的罗马法教学完成了转型,表现为更多地通过罗马法原始文献学习罗马法,优士丁尼《法学阶梯》开始被作为罗马私法课的教材使用。     

货币权力的宪法规制及其路径选择简

在现代经济社会,不可兑换的信用货币体制和政府财政权的扩张导致了纸币的持续超发,也肇始了愈发严重的金融危机或经济危机接踵而至,进而侵犯人民的财产权利,而需要在宪法位阶上对中央银行的货币权力进行合理的制度规范。货币权力的宪法规制不但要赋予中央银行独立行使职权的法律地位,还应当通过对中央银行的货币权力予以宪法性约束,使其权力运行真正能够受到民主监督的制约,以期实现对人民基本权利之有效保障。     

Can computer forensic tools be trusted in digital investigations?

This paper investigates whether computer forensic tools (CFTs) can extract complete and credible digital evidence from digital crime scenes in the presence of file system anti-forensic (AF) attacks. The study uses a well-established six stage forensic tool testing methodology based on black-box testing principles to carry out experiments that evaluate four leading CFTs for their potential to combat eleven different file system AF attacks. Results suggest that only a few AF attacks are identified by all the evaluated CFTs, while as most of the attacks considered by the study go unnoticed. These AF attacks exploit basic file system features, can be executed using simple tools, and even attack CFTs to accomplish their task. These results imply that evidences collected by CFTs in digital investigations are not complete and credible in the presence of AF attacks. The study suggests that practitioners and academicians should not absolutely rely on CFTs for evidence extraction from a digital crime scene, highlights the implications of doing so, and makes many recommendations in this regard. The study also points towards immediate and aggressive research efforts that are required in the area of computer forensics to address the pitfalls of CFTs.     

The 2011 presidential election in Peru: a thorny moral and political dilemma

The 2011 presidential elections in Peru was the third one held in the post-Fujimori era. A perusal of the campaign's political dynamics reveals pervasive anti-democratic behaviours, attitudes and rhetoric on the part of key political actors, showcasing the degree to which Peru remains an unconsolidated, precarious democracy. The second round presented a moral and political dilemma insofar as two unsavoury candidates of highly dubious democratic credentials vied for the presidency: Ollanta Humala, a former army lieutenant burdened by accusations of human rights violations who, additionally, led or supported two military uprisings; and Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of a convicted and jailed dictator who unabashedly touted the legacy of her father's authoritarian regime and surrounded herself with tainted fujimoristas. The paradox of this undesirable electoral outcome, which can be read as a popular rebuke of the status quo, is that it took place in the Latin American country posting the fastest economic growth over the past decade.     

Estimating relative prevalence of competing issue voting rules in multiparty elections using finite mixture modeling

How do citizens of democratic polities translate their policy preferences into voting choices? Proximity and directional theories of issue voting offer different answers to this question that have strong implications for parties’ strategies. Controlled scenarios in imaginary two-candidate contests have gained popularity as a method to estimate proportions of proximity and directional voters in the population. However, this method is not always applicable in comparative research where scholars often have to study multiparty elections with observational data. In the present paper, I demonstrate how relative prevalence of different issue voting rules can be estimated using finite mixture modeling. Using both a paradigmatic and a recent case, I demonstrate that the mixture model predicts observed voting choices better than the alternatives. I also show how finite mixture modeling can be used to study individual-level characteristics of proximity and directional voters using education as an example.     

Developing a Spatial-Temporal Method for the Geographic Investigation of Shoeprint Evidence

Abstract:  This article examines the potential of a spatial-temporal method for analysis of forensic shoeprint data. The large volume of shoeprint evidence recovered at crime scenes results in varied success in matching a print to a known shoe type and subsequently linking sets of matched prints to suspected offenders. Unlike DNA and fingerprint data, a major challenge is to reduce the uncertainty in linking sets of matched shoeprints to a suspected serial offender. Shoeprint data for 2004 were imported from the Greater London Metropolitan Area Bigfoot database into a geographic information system, and a spatial-temporal algorithm developed for this project. The results show that by using distance and time constraints interactively, the number of candidate shoeprints that can implicate one or few suspects can be substantially reduced. It concludes that the use of space-time and other ancillary information within a geographic information system can be quite helpful for forensic investigation.     

Validation of the Short Amplicon Multiplex Q8 Including the German DNA Database Systems*

Abstract: We have developed a concept to enable the analyzing of degraded stains with limited DNA template quantity. Therefore we have constructed a short tandem repeat (STR) multiplex including the German DNA database systems (Q8). The amplicon lengths are smaller than 280 bp. For the validation of Q8 over 50 degraded samples were investigated. Amplifications were performed with “low copy number” PCR, the number of PCR cycles was increased to 33 and the reaction volume was decreased to 12.5 μL. Compared with the MPX2 and Nonaplex kit, the average success rate was increased using the Q8 kit by approximately 20% and 30%, respectively. The efficiency of a sensitive STR multiplex with reduced amplicon lengths was confirmed in comparing the success rates of Q8 for typing degraded samples and samples with limited amount of DNA template while partial profiles were observed with the majority of the samples using commercially available kits.