WHAT WE KNOW NOW: FINDINGS FROM DEPENDENCY MEDIATION RESEARCH

After approximately 15 years of research on court-based dependency mediation programs, answers have emerged for many, but not all, of the questions that surround dependency mediation. This article explores what has been learned about court-based dependency mediation through research and what new and persisting questions remain. The article reviews empirical studies of child protection mediation. The topics considered include what we have learned about the organization and structure of mediation programs, what have we learned about settlement in mediation, and whether there are benefits to mediation beyond the mere fact that settlements are reached.     

Is it complex environments or complex systems that undermines police reform in developing countries?

This article is a reflection upon the challenges facing police reform in developing countries. In doing so it explores the usefulness of complexity theory both to understand the evidence of relative failure and to reconsider the explanations offered for that failure in terms of unique individual factors or the complex nature of the environment. The article suggests that the nature of police organisations as complex social systems may be a principal reason for failure. The article outlines some of the key features of complex systems and illustrates these from actual police reform. The article then turns to whether complexity theory can be of any practical use in police reform programmes. It concludes that greater success may be forthcoming if the insights of complexity theory are taken on board by reformers.     

Failure of authoritarian learning: explaining Burma/Myanmar’s electoral system

What explains why some authoritarian governments fail to take all the steps they can to preserve their positions of power during democratic transitions? This article examines this question using the example of the leading pro-military party in Myanmar, which lost badly to the National League for Democracy (NLD) in the transitioning elections of 2015. This article argues that a key to understanding how the military failed to perpetuate its power in the electoral sphere resides in its choice of electoral system. In 2010, the military junta chose an electoral system, first-past-the-post, that was distinctly ill-suited to preserve its power. We explore several hypotheses for why this occurred and ultimately conclude that the military and its allies did not understand electoral systems well enough to act strategically and that they overestimated their support relative to the NLD. This failure of authoritarian learning has important implications for understanding authoritarian politics, democratic transitions, and the challenges faced by authoritarian governments seeking to make such transitions.     

The politics of quantitative easing and housing stimulus by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, 2008‒2018

Abstract

Central banks have been important yet underexplored actors in the fight against the Great Recession. In addition to ultra-low interest rates, they adopted large-scale bond-buying programmes known as quantitative easing (QE). Yet there is significant variation in QE programmes with important distributive consequences. Why has the Fed adopted multi-trillion-dollar bond-buying programmes in housing, while the ECB has not? This article argues that the Fed targeted the integrated housing finance market as a monetary transmission strategy to stimulate core elements of the US growth model: credit, demand, and consumption. In contrast, the ECB hardly stimulated housing given the eurozone’s fragmented housing finance markets and the macroeconomic frictions with some eurozone growth models, particularly export-oriented Germany. Analysing archival and interview data, this article traces the decisions of these central banks since the Great Recession, contributing to scholarship on the politics of central banking, economic policy in hard times, and the welfare state.     

公共话语中隐喻语言的表意系统研究——基于隐喻的复杂系统分析法

隐喻语言是思维的载体,在公共话语中担任认知方式的表达媒介,是话语分析的重要考察对象。当前,多数聚焦隐喻的公共话语分析基于概念隐喻理论展开。相关研究从具身体验角度考察了公共话语中概念隐喻产生的心理过程,但未描写和解释语境中隐喻语言的表意网络创设。文章采用隐喻的复杂系统分析法,以英文报刊对金砖国家概念的隐喻构建为例,考察公共话语语境中隐喻语言的表意系统性。研究显示,隐喻语言在公共话语语境中自下而上形成系统隐喻、隐喻情节和隐喻叙事,三者环环相扣,受到话语目的、社会文化、语言语境及认知活动的交互施动。研究发现,隐喻的复杂系统分析法能有效捕捉语境中隐喻语言的协同表意,利于揭示公共话语中隐喻语言产生修辞论辩效果的复杂动因。