特朗普安全战略的调整与限度

随着特朗普政府陆续出台一系列战略文件,相关安全政策付诸实施,其安全战略的基本态势逐渐清晰。特朗普的安全观和政策举措,共同构成执政初期安全战略的主体。特朗普的安全观建立在其自身对世界“霍布斯主义”认知的基础上,同时融合了共和党现实主义安全观的基本主张,反映了军工企业及军人群体等背后主要利益集团的核心诉求。特朗普的安全政策仍处于成型中,在军事战略、新空间战略和地区安全战略三个层面举措较多,相关布局较为系统,集中折射了其安全理念。在军事安全层面,在重塑美军优势的核心目标下,扩张性的态势表现明显;在新空间战略层面,进攻性、军事化的特征尤为突出;在地区安全战略层面虽然在手段上有所变化,但总体延续了防御性战略。特朗普的安全战略调整未来仍将面临诸多限度,包括财政制约、同时应对两个大国难以兼顾、建制派的牵制等。特朗普的安全战略将加剧中美在安全领域的对抗态势,两国在军事战略、新空间战略稳定以及南海问题上的对冲和深层矛盾或进一步发酵。安全关系的上述变化将给中美“竞争”增添新变数。     

A New Progressive Patriotism

The need to hold capital to account and to bend markets to the common good is as powerful as ever, yet it is becoming steadily harder to create an electoral or political majority for such an idea in societies that are fractured and divided. The fundamental bond between voters and parties depends on political identity relationships; old ones are fading, new ones need to be created. The most dynamic politics in advanced capitalist societies are those of nation, people and place. The strategic challenge for the left is to create a new progressive patriotism that can embed radical ideas in a common sense of national purpose.     

TTIP and legislative‒executive relations in EU trade policy

Abstract

This paper analyses Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations in order to assess how the move towards tighter economic integration within the EU?US strategic partnership impacts on legislative?executive relations in EU trade policy. The analysis examines the institutional, substantive and party political dimensions of national parliaments’ scrutiny of the Common Commercial Policy. Based on insights into both domestic and EU channels of parliamentary monitoring of TTIP negotiations, the paper argues that, although the government remains the central object of democratic control, the involvement of national parliaments in transatlantic trade extends to encompass the EU’s own transatlantic and trade policies. This is rooted in the legislatures’ legal capacity to constrain the executive in the negotiation, conclusion and, where applicable, ratification phases of EU trade agreements. It is argued that national parliamentary influence takes the shape of politicisation of the legitimacy of the expected policy outcomes of these agreements.     

The structure of foreign policy attitudes in transatlantic perspective: Comparing the United States,United Kingdom,France and Germany

While public opinion about foreign policy has been studied extensively in the United States, there is less systematic research of foreign policy opinions in other countries. Given that public opinion about international affairs affects who gets elected in democracies and then constrains the foreign policies available to leaders once elected, both comparative politics and international relations scholarship benefit from more systematic investigation of foreign policy attitudes outside the United States. Using new data, this article presents a common set of core constructs structuring both American and European attitudes about foreign policy. Surveys conducted in four countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany) provide an expanded set of foreign policy‐related survey items that are analysed using exploratory structural equation modeling (ESEM). Measurement equivalence is specifically tested and a common four‐factor structure that fits the data in all four countries is found. Consequently, valid, direct comparisons of the foreign policy preferences of four world powers are made. In the process, the four‐factor model confirms and expands previous work on the structure of foreign policy attitudes. The article also demonstrates the capability of ESEM in testing the dimensionality and cross‐national equivalence of social science concepts.     

From ambiguity to contestation: discourse(s) of non-traditional security in the ASEAN community

‘Non-traditional security’ (NTS) is prominently featured in the agenda of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and other ASEAN-led institutions in the Asia-Pacific. ‘NTS’ brings together a series transnational and non-military security threats that are considered common among regional states, urgent for them to attend to, and non-sensitive all at the same time. This a priori makes it a self-evident focus of attempts to bring regional security cooperation ‘to a higher plane’. However, this paper reveals that the uncontroversial character of NTS is overestimated, by shedding light on the co-existence of divergent – and potentially contradictory – interpretations of its meaning and implications in ASEAN and the wider region. In a context where ASEAN's relevance to the pursuit of regional security is increasingly being measured against its (in)ability to provide a coherent approach to security challenges that affect the region, the contested nature of NTS has important implications for the grouping's resilience in the twenty-first century.     

“We have to tell our own story”: semiotics of resisting negative stereotypes of Nigeria in the heart of Africa nation branding campaign

This study examines the semiotic resources deployed in resisting negative stereotypes of Nigeria in the international community, particularly representations of the country in the Western media. Data for the study were drawn from Nigeria’s Heart of Africa nation branding campaign. The study applies the discourse-historical approach (DHA) pioneered by Ruth Wodak of the Vienna School of CDA. DHA attempts to integrate much available knowledge about the historical sources and the background of the social and political fields in which discursive events are embedded. Further applying Reisigl and Wodak's presentation of the discursive strategies normally oriented towards understanding texts related to nations and national identities, among others, the study reveals that in appropriating the semiotic resources in the campaign, the discourse producers have predilection for the discursive strategies of mitigating negative attributes which the out-group intensifies, and highlighting positive attributes which the out-group seemingly under-reports in its representations of Nigeria. Notwithstanding the rhetorical dynamics of the semiotic resources, the study concludes that enduring national image management thrives on creating new images and associations lived by a country’s citizens rather than tries to refute old ones.     

Security Providers: Obstacles to Effectiveness in Democracies

To usefully discuss security, one must analyze the security providers states utilize to enhance international and domestic security. These are the armed forces, police, and intelligence agencies. This paper analyzes the implications of democratization on the requirements—posited as strategies, resources, and coordination institutions—these providers require in order to achieve the goals civilian leaders set for them. In analyzing case studies of how nations implement six different tasks, it becomes clear that the absence, or weakness, in any of the requirements leads to serious weakness in implementation. Two findings from the case studies are particularly important for policy. First, presidents, who are elected directly and for fixed terms, may ignore or even abolish institutions, including national security councils, that are created to coordinate policy. Second, as civilians are in control, if they lack clear incentives they are not willing to provide the necessary requirements for the security providers.     

Interrogating the Interface of Partisan Public Security Forces,Cynical Electorate,and the Hazards of Electioneering in Nigeria

Elections in Nigeria are usually ferociously contested. Thus the risks of violence are always high, particularly for the electorate. Violence becomes such a seeming permanent feature of political competition in the country that electioneering is seen as the equivalent of war and political gladiators as combatants. The intervention of public security forces to enforce sanity in the process appears counterproductive because of their level of partisanship. The voters become victims in such circumstances such that they are precariously hooked in between the choice of endangering their lives in a country riddled with impunity or exercising their voting rights for good governance and a better future. The essay argues that as much as the relevance of security forces in electioneering may not be underestimated, their presence often undermines the process, fueling an atmosphere of violence. The article submits that a more civil approach/strategy should be factored into their operations with a view to ensuring a level playing ground and safety for all stakeholders in the electoral process.     

Moving Beyond Hybridity: the Multi-Scalar Adaptation of Community Policing in Liberia

Extensive fieldwork in Liberia revealed that security agents and civilians alike all talked of community policing, yet they had different visions, understandings and legitimizations of the idea in mind. These ranged from community meetings to vigilante groups, and were divergent in whether they were orientated towards a Weberian-state model or the community as a primary security provider. This variation was not simply an example of hybrid policing, but revealed a multi-scalar adaption process across and between international, national and local actors and (geographical) scales. Theories on hybridity are insufficient to analyse such implementation processes since the scholarship heuristically still favours binary and essentialized actors and ‘pure’ starting points or blueprints.     

Smart and secure borders through automated border control systems in the EU? The views of political stakeholders in the Member States

The European Commission launched the “Smart Borders” policy process in 2011 to enhance border security in the European Union (EU) using technologisation and harmonisation. This includes the use of automated border control (ABC) systems. The Member States crucially shape the process, weighing security technologies and costs, privacy and rights, and further institutional choices. We examine the views of political stakeholders in four Member States by conducting a systematic empirical and comparative study unprecedented in the existing, political-theory-inspired research. In our Q methodological experiments, political stakeholders in Finland, Romania, Spain and the UK rank-ordered a sample of statements on Smart Borders, ABC and harmonisation. The factor analysis of the results yielded three main views: the first criticising ABC as a security technology, the second welcoming the security gains of automation and the third opposing harmonised border control. While impeding harmonisation, the results offer a consensus facilitating common policy.