同盟安全与防扩散——美国延伸威慑的可信度及其确保机制

冷战以来,美国就始终坚持推行延伸威慑战略,并将其视为最重要的防扩散工具之一。然而,这种基于经验的政策逻辑缺乏系统性的理论支持。获得美国延伸威慑保护的国家或约束自己的核扩散行为,或走上研发核武器的道路,抑或推行两面下注的"核避险"战略。在获得延伸威慑保护与核不扩散行为之间,并未呈现出简单的因果关系。因此,延伸威慑究竟是不是一种有效的防扩散手段以及在何种条件下才能起到防扩散的作用,便是值得深入探讨的问题。在控制外部威胁以及供给侧因素等干扰变量之后,本文发现延伸威慑的可信度是影响受保护国核扩散行为的中间变量。而可信度的变化又与美国和盟友之间建立起来的一系列确保机制相关。确保机制包括口头或书面承诺、前沿部署、核分享以及核磋商这四类措施。不同的确保措施对延伸威慑可信度的影响不同,同时也会对美国在核安全以及受牵连的问题上造成相应的影响。因此,美国及其盟友往往在确保机制的选择上有着不同的利弊偏好。冷战时期,联邦德国和韩国在同时受到外部安全威胁和美国延伸威慑保护的情况下,却采取了不同的核扩散行为,对此延伸威慑可信度及其确保机制理论做出了合理解释。总体上,由于美国与不同盟友所建立的确保机制不尽相同,从而使得延伸威慑的可信度出现差异,并最终导致盟友之间出现不同的核扩散行为。     

Humans Are Animals,Too: Critical Commonalities and Differences Between Human and Wildlife Forensic Genetics

Wildlife forensics has recently been recognized among the wide variety of forensic science disciplines. This review compares human and wildlife DNA forensics, which use the same genetic tools, but often for far different purposes. Human forensic genetics almost invariably attempts to identify individual perpetrators involved in a given crime. Wildlife forensics often determines whether a crime has occurred. In addition to techniques familiar in human laboratories, like individual matching with STRs, wildlife analysts may be asked to determine the taxonomic identity, geographic source, or sex of evidence items, or the familial relationships or minimum number of individuals among a group of samples. This review highlights the common questions, legal framework, databases, and similar validation requirements to foster understanding between disciplines. Based on this understanding, human and wildlife DNA practitioners may work together and learn from each other in order to elevate the discipline of forensic genetics.     

日本福岛核泄漏事故的法律省思

日本福岛核泄漏事故的发生有其历史的必然性,是上世纪50年代建立的日本式经济体制弊端在核电领域的折射。审视日本70年代建立的核电监督体制,其效率性存在不足,加之司法暧昧,一定程度上助推了事故的发生。     

Instrumentalizing Fukushima: Comparing Media Coverage of Fukushima in Germany,France, the United Kingdom,and Switzerland

According to the theory of instrumental actualization in mediated conflicts, the mass media tend to exaggerate events consistent with the editorial line. This theory was tested using press coverage in Germany, Switzerland, France, and the United Kingdom on the Japanese seaquake, the tsunami it caused, and the nuclear disaster of Fukushima. Within a period of seven weeks after the seaquake, the coverage in the four countries in 27 national newspapers and magazines on the three events was analyzed. As hypothesized from theory, German and Swiss media concentrated on Fukushima and stressed its relevance to domestic nuclear plants, whereas French and British media placed a greater emphasis on the tsunami and rarely related the nuclear catastrophe in Japan to domestic nuclear programs. In addition, there were remarkable correlations between the views of journalists and the bias of statements on nuclear energy presented in their news sections. Findings are discussed and related to the theory of public opinion and political decisions in liberal democracies.     

Control,Historic Pitfalls,and the UK Nuclear Renaissance

In September 2015, the UK government announced that future taxpayers will underwrite the construction of two European-designed nuclear reactors at Hinkley Point in Somerset. Partly financed by Chinese utility companies, this announcement presents a fait accompli with little democratic input. Few, if any, historic lessons evident from previous attempts to manage its nuclear industry appear to have been learnt. This paper discusses the announcement with reference to the governance of the UK’s historic nuclear legacy—specifically dealing with control, stakeholder engagement, and transparency—and its implications for a nuclear renaissance.     

论中国共产党三代杰出领导核心的产生及历史地位

如何正确认识我们党历史发展过程中产生三代杰出领导核心这一历史现象,是深刻把握现代中国政治运行特点和规律不能不进行深入研究的一个重大的理论和实践问题。当前应格外珍惜和自觉维护第三代杰出领导核心的权威。     

反核生化恐怖作战中防化兵的心理素质培养

防化兵的心理状态对于武警防化分队执行反核生化恐怖袭击保障任务具有重要作用。应从防化兵心理状态分析入手,结合其专业的心理素质要求,探讨防化兵的心理培养与训练基本方法。     

《核不扩散条约》缔约国和平利用核能的权利探究——以伊朗为例

近来,伊朗所声称的和平利用核能的活动引起了国际社会的强烈反应。在国际原子能机构框架内解决该问题的努力失败后,该问题被移交到联合国安理会。安理会已三次通过决议要求伊朗停止铀浓缩,并逐步加强了对伊朗的制裁。由于伊朗享有核主权,并且这种核主权受到《核不扩散条约》的确认,所以伊朗和平利用核能的权利具有充分的法律依据。但是伊朗和平利用核能的权利应受到三点限制:第一,权利不得滥用原则的限制;第二,《保障协定》及其《附加议定书》的限制;第三,安理会决议的限制。     

War Games redux? Cyberthreats,US–Russian strategic stability,and new challenges for nuclear security and arms control

Some 30 years since the release of the Hollywood blockbuster War Games, the possibility that hackers might break into nuclear command and control facilities, compromise early warning or firing systems, or even cause the launch of a nuclear weapon has become disturbingly real. While this challenge will impact all nuclear-armed states, it appears particularly acute for the USA and Russia given their large, diverse, and highly alerted nuclear forces. The fact that east–west relations have deteriorated to a nadir perhaps not seen since the 1980s, strategic instability has increased – particularly in the wake of the Ukraine and now Syria crises – and that the nuclear arms reductions agenda appears to have reached a standstill makes this challenge particularly pressing. In this discouraging milieu, new cyberthreats are both exacerbating the already strained US–Russia strategic balance – particularly the perceived safety and security of nuclear forces – and at the same time creating new vulnerabilities and problems that might be exploited by a third party. Taken together, these dynamics add another major complication for current arms control agreements and possible future nuclear cuts, and also seem likely to increase the possibility of accidents, miscalculation, and potential unauthorised nuclear use, especially given the large number of nuclear weapons that remain on “hair-trigger” alert.     

论弘扬核工业精神的时代价值

在我国核事业发展过程中,核工业人铸就了"事业高于一切,责任重于一切,严细融于一切,进取成就一切"的核工业精神,"四个一切"的核工业精神是爱国主义为核心的民族精神和改革创新为核心的时代精神的体现。当今时代弘扬核工业精神对我国的社会主义建设事业和国民素质的提高都具有重要的意义。