Do 90 Percent of Terrorist Groups Last Less than a Year? Updating the Conventional Wisdom

ABSTRACT

Prominent scholars criticize terrorism research for lacking sufficient empirical testing of arguments. Interestingly, one of the most widely cited estimates in terrorism studies has not been evaluated using the many data sources now available. Rapoport’s 1992 claim, that perhaps 90 percent of terrorist groups last less than one year, has been described as part of the conventional wisdom. This estimate is frequently used to justify studies of terrorist group longevity, a substantial line of research in recent years. Is the estimate accurate? Scholars increasingly publish data sets of terrorist organizations, but no one has analyzed them collectively to see if the 90 percent claim holds up. This article examines the eight largest global data sets of terrorist group longevity, covering 1968–2013. The samples vary considerably, but the percentage of groups that do not survive beyond their first year in these relevant data sets is between 25–74 percent. Across all data sets, on average about 50 percent of terrorist organizations do not make it past their first year. There is some variation depending on group motivations, consistent with Rapoport’s “wave” theory. However, overall, terrorist organizations appear to be more durable than the conventional wisdom suggests.     

Democracy or democrazy? Local experiences of democratization in Timor-Leste

Since gaining independence from Indonesia in 1999, Timor-Leste has been pursuing an agenda of democratization. However, in the villages of Timor-Leste traditional ideas of socio-political legitimacy continue to be strong. The purpose of this article is to examine how the new democratic ideals are being incorporated into local politics, where traditional law, or lisan, continues to guide the daily lives of the villagers. This article argues that democratization in this context should not be seen as integrating one ‘type’ of governance (liberal democracy) into a social structure that is informed by another ‘type’ of governance that is qualitatively different and in opposition to the first. Rather, evidence shows that communities are engaging within both spheres of governance simultaneously, as part of the everyday politics of village life. This article critically examines the areas where traditional and democratic institutional spheres come together, resulting in structured systems of mutual recognition, as well as the areas where the spheres have been in conflict. The author concludes that the fundamental areas of tension that have emerged between the spheres tend to be where notions of ‘respect-in-community’ as the basis for human security are threatened.     

When government fails us: trust in post-socialist civil organizations

The research for this article was motivated by a noticeable discrepancy between levels of participation and trust in post-socialist civil organizations. While civic participation in Central and Eastern Europe is almost nonexistent, levels of trust in post-socialist civil organizations compare favourably to those in Western Europe. The first aim of this article is to understand why citizens place relatively high trust in post-socialist civil organizations. The political context, within which civil organizations operate, reveals one explanation for the high levels of trust in civil organizations: government corruption dissuades citizens from relying on state institutions and creates a void that is filled by informal networks of association and civil organizations. Empirical evidence demonstrates that trust in civil organizations focused on socioeconomic and political development is higher among citizens who express concern about corruption in their country. The second aim of this article is to understand the discrepancy between levels of trust and civic participation. A novel interpretation of past findings suggests that civil organizations' effectiveness, professionalization, transactional capacity and orientation toward service provision may garner citizens' trust while parallel neglect of grassroots mobilization leaves civil organizations short of capitalizing on that trust. Civil organizations' limited focus on interest aggregation, mobilization and representation raises doubts as to whether observers of civil society in the region should look to these organizations as its core component.     

An Exploratory Examination of a Gendered Model of the Effects of Role Stressors

A gendered model of the effects of role stressors on job stress, job satisfaction, and organizational commitment was tested. Ordinary least squares regression analysis of survey data from correctional staff provided partial support for the proposition that men and women perceive and respond to the work environment differently. Work–family conflict was found to influence levels of job stress, job satisfaction, and organizational commitment among women but not among men. Conversely, role ambiguity, role overload, and perceived dangerousness influenced levels of job stress for men but not women. Furthermore, levels of role conflict and role ambiguity influenced levels of job satisfaction for men but not for women. These findings lend support to further development of gendered theoretical models.     

新时期共青团组织资源管理探赜

共青团战略性课题的破解与共青团组织自身的资源状况密切相关.共青团是兼具政治性、社会性、服务性的复合型公共组织,具有多样化的组织资源类型及其获取方式.新时期共青团组织的生存、运行、发展和创新有赖于对共青团组织资源的合理规划、充分汲取和有效配置.     

Human Resources in Public Administration in the Czech Republic

This paper informs about results of a research taking place within an internal grant of College of Polytechnics Jihlava, which is aimed at examining the efficiency in public administration from the point of view of the office workers. The research is divided into three stages which were proceeding gradually in large organisations of public administration carrying out self-government as well as state government in figurative effect. The research took place in the form of questionnaires, which were given to randomly chosen workers of the offices, and these anonymously answered 60 questions were divided into six topics： human resources, organizational capital, information capital, customer capital, performance measuring, and innovation capital. The respondents assessed the situation in the office using their own judgement. The aim of this paper is to inform about the results of this research especially from the point of view of human capital, organizational capital, and social capital in organisations of public administration.     

Mixing business with politics: Does corporate social responsibility end where lobbying transparency begins?

Scholars increasingly have argued that the future effectiveness and legitimacy of firms' corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities are dependent on more transparent forms of lobbying to ensure firms' policy positions are aligned with their CSR commitments. Very little empirical work, however, has systematically analyzed firms' lobbying disclosures or examined how these firms coordinate their lobbying and CSR activities. We address these empirical questions by analyzing the CSR reports of 150 corporations from Germany, the UK and the US over an 18-year period and by conducting interviews with the CSR managers of these firms. We find that corporations have become more transparent about their public policy advocacy over time, thus acknowledging that lobbying is a CSR issue. For most firms, however, this commitment to transparency appears to be largely ceremonial. Few firms disclose the specific policy positions they advocate or sufficiently coordinate the work of their lobbying and CSR units to foster greater alignment of these activities. These modest changes in lobbying transparency appear to be driven by legitimacy concerns and, in a few instances, by governance gaps firms perceive to be relevant to their future business interests.     

关于我国高校组织结构变革的几点思考

大学组织结构变革势在必行。当前 ,这一变革要充分考虑大学内部的劳动分工、大学的单位划分、层级结构、责权分配、调研机制、组织边界等问题     

初析动态隐性的组织结构

本文提出了一个新的观点,即不论自然界或社会界都存在动态隐性的组织结构,人们必须认识和研究这种组织结构的动态隐性现象,才能更加自觉和有效地对组织进行控制、调整与管理     

事业单位的分类规划——基于组织功能分化的视角

随着前期经营自主权的下放,现有事业单位的价值目标已分化为经济价值、多元的社会价值和政治价值三大类。根据相关的组织理论,社会组织的分化与分工在很大程度上取决于各种运行机制在相互协作中的彼此融合。在剥离和部分剥离追求经济价值和政治价值组织的基础上,事业单位应转换为由政府创立或主办,主要利用社会资源和社会机制,或同时运用社会机制和国家机制,或主要使用公共资源和国家机制提供公共物品的公立机构。