The Economic Consequences of a Hung Parliament: Lessons from February 1974

The British general election on 10 May 2010 delivered Britain's first hung Parliament since February 1974, and in the run‐up, the Conservative party made much of the economic difficulties Britain faced in the second half of the 1970s in order to try and convince voters that anything other than a Tory vote would risk exposing the nation to the discipline of financial markets. The question of how well equipped an exceptional kind of British government is to deal with exceptional economic circumstances is therefore of paramount importance. This paper argues that the Conservative party made too much of the impact of the 1974 hung Parliament in precipitating subsequent economic crisis and suggests that as such, there is no reason to assume that the Conservative–Liberal coalition government is ill‐equipped to manage British economic affairs in difficult circumstances.     

铁路公安机关深化反腐倡廉工作研探

铁路公安机关的党风廉政建设和队伍纪律作风建设,是党和国家反腐倡廉、建设廉洁政治的重要组成部分.要统一思想、深化认识,以高度的政治自觉和饱满的政治热情抓好反腐倡廉工作；要健全制度、完善机制,用严密的科学体系和有力的制度保障推进反腐倡廉工作；要抓住源头、突出重点,把解决薄弱环节和突出问题作为主要任务深化反腐倡廉工作；要创新思路、改进方法,在探索建立廉政风险防控机制中提升反腐倡廉工作.     

政府在和谐社会构建进程中的责任担当

政府在构建和谐社会中承担着创造、维护、监控等重要责任。建设新型政府,有利于政府更好地发挥在构建和谐社会中的主导作用,推进和谐社会构建的进程。通过转变管理理念、管理范围和管理方式,加快建设符合和谐社会要求的新型政府是构建社会主义和谐社会的必然要求。     

Forecasts of the 2004 French European Election

The purpose of this article is to build and to estimate a model which explains and forecasts the outcomes of the French European elections by department, by electoral district and at the national level. The model is accurate in forecasting the elections of the past. Its forecasts for the 2004 French European election are satisfactory and take into account the recent changes in the voting system.     

Forecasting the 2015 general election using aggregate local election data

Local government election results are used to estimate a national equivalent vote that provides the basis for a general election forecast. By-elections provide the means for calculating weighted quarterly averages of national support. These show trends similar to those obtained by national polls. By-election results in the three month period leading to the general election contribute towards the national vote share calculation and seat distributions are determined by uniform national swing. Additionally, results from the main council elections from 2011 onwards are aggregated to the parliamentary constituency level and used to estimate each party's relative performance in key target seats. This information is used to fine-tune the final seat forecast which suggests a hung parliament is the most likely outcome.     

论革命根据地司法判决的风格

革命根据地判词在中国近代判词发展史上处于一个极为独特的地位,其上承民国时期,下启新中国成立.一方面传承了古代判词及民国时期判词的某些特点,一方面又强烈地体现出特定时期的通俗性、政策性与情感性,不论是结构模式的逻辑化还是语汇的专业化程度均出现新的变化,说理亦颇具感染效果.其成功经验和教训对当代判词制作具有借鉴与参考价值,尤其在当今裁判文书上网机制下①,如何让判决书面向公众,更显启迪意义.     

从领导力提升看党的领导方式变革

执政党领导力与执政能力一样关系到党的兴衰。按照领导力提升的要求，党的领导方式必须相应进行调整：一是要注重以新的途径发挥党的影响力与凝聚力；二是要将领导重心放在制定战略和推动改革上；三是要提高党员干部的综合素质，同时注重聚集各种人才力量。     

法学语体研究——基于法学期刊编辑学的视角

经过20多年的发展,作为边缘法学的法律语言学的学科地位在事实上得以确立,法言法语渐被纳入学科研究对象。此外,作为现代语言学的分支,语体学已相对成熟,但法学语体问题却少有人问津。这也许与修辞学泰斗王德春教授主张语体种类之一的科学语体"不再细分"有关,也与自古以来"文术多门,各适所好"、"明者弗授,学者弗师"有关。然而,法学语体具有科学语体与政论语体甚至公文语体交叉的特点,可以视为语言分化的结果。法学语体研究滞后对我国法学研究与报刊编辑出版中的语言质量已造成消极影响。法学语体逐渐形成一些典型的语言手段及表达方式,如:词汇上庄重、严谨、文雅;句式完整,但具扩展性;语篇上具连贯性、充分性。我们应当恰当使用带语体色彩的词汇体现法学气派,并且合理使用长句、复合句反映法学风格。灵活运用的多种修辞表达方式充分体现了学术语境的科学理性与思维美感。法学语篇不妨在行文上流光溢彩,活泼多姿。与此同时,要防止不当话语修辞对交际和传播带来的负面影响。     

高校领导干部作风建设评价指标体系构建初探

建立合理规范的高校领导干部作风建设评价指标体系是科学评价领导干部作风建设的前提,也是高校领导干部改进作风建设的主要参照,更是加强高校领导干部考核评比的重要支撑。根据全面性、科学性、操作性、独立性和普适性原则,采用政策研究法、调查咨询法和文献阅读法,初步构建一套高校领导干部作风建设评价指标体系,包括思想作风、学风、工作作风、领导作风和生活作风5个一级指标、18个二级指标和47个三级指标,对检验高校领导干部作风建设成效、落实领导干部作风建设长效机制具有重要意义。     

All quiet on election day? International election observation and incentives for pre-election violence in African elections

This article argues that the increasing international interest in elections as exemplified by the rise of international election monitoring induces temporal shifts in the use of violent intimidation by political actors. The presence of international electoral missions lowers the potential for election-day violence relative to the pre-election period because domestic actors likely refrain from intimidating opposition candidates or voters before the eyes of international observers, but creates incentives for political actors to engage in violent manipulation in parts of the electoral process receiving considerably less international attention, such as the pre-election period. The article expects that international election observation increases the incidence of violent manipulation during electoral campaigns. An empirical analysis of election-related violence for African elections in the 1990–2009 period shows that the presence of election observers increases the incidence of pre-election violence, but has no effect on election-day violence.