Nowcasting V. polling: The 2010 UK election trials

This paper first offers a final forecast for the May 2010 UK general election based on our “two-step model” [Nadeau, R., Lewis-Beck, M.S., Bélanger, É., 2009. Election forecasting in the United Kingdom: a two-step model. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 19, 333-358.]. That model is then used to explore a new technique, “nowcasting.” We examine our model “nowcasts,” comparing it to the classic forecasting strategy of the vote intention poll, across the contemporary election period, 2005-2010. As is shown, nowcasting offers forecasting advantages that simple polling does not. Most notably, the nowcast provides variation that appears much more subject to substantive explanation of the electoral cycle, and it provides predictions with a three-month lead.     

毛泽东廉政思想的内容、特点及启示

毛泽东廉政思想是毛泽东思想的重要组成部分。毛泽东从分析官僚主义和腐败产生的原因入手,充分认识到廉政建设的重要性,提出从思想教育、作风建设、民主监督机制、法律法规建设四个方面加强廉政建设。这一思想具有鲜明的民族性、人民性和方法上的灵活性,仍是今天我们党进行廉政建设的重要指导思想。     

提高社会管理科学化水平研究

2011年2月19日胡锦涛在省部级主要领导干部社会管理及其创新专题研讨班开班式上明确提出了"提高社会管理科学化水平"的重大命题。其实,提高社会管理科学化水平在党内的探索从党的十六大以来已经展开,并经历了一个发展演进的过程。当前,提高社会管理科学化水平的紧迫任务是,必须抓紧理清社会管理与社会民生、社会管理与社会稳定、社会管理与社会组织、社会管理与社会参与、社会管理与社会发展等五大基本关系范畴。而共产党作为社会的执政党,通过主导管理格局、主导党群关系、主导基层基础、主导社会组织、主导虚拟社会、主导核心价值,事实上在创新社会管理、提高社会管理科学化水平中发挥着主导性作用。     

论普选对香港特区政府的影响

即将实行的香港普选,既符合人民主权原则,也使特区政府面临中央和民众的"双重问责"。一方面,当行政决策的地方主体性被加强的同时,特区政府必须处理好与中央意志的平衡问题;另一方面,普选将推动政党、压力团体和民众的广泛政治参与,通过监督决策过程和效果,促使政务公开和透明,使特区政府更加民主和谨慎决策。     

新媒体背景下的青少年生活方式探析

新媒体作为一种全新的社会力量,已逐步普及并渗透到社会生活的各个方面,深刻地改变着社会面貌,影响着人们的思维观念和价值取向。青少年是新媒体技术使用最为广泛、最为活跃的群体,探析新媒体对青少年的影响,应该同时考虑如何控制新媒体对青少年的负面影响。     

普京两次总统竞选纲领之比较

1999年底和2012年初,普京两次参加俄罗斯总统竞选,两次提出客观冷静、直面问题、聚拢民心的竞选纲领,系统回答了俄罗斯现状、世界局势和俄罗斯向何处去的问题。普京两次高票获胜后,其竞选纲领就成为施政纲领,成为团结和引领俄罗斯人民建设国家的重要文件。比较两份纲领,能够看出间隔12年普京对国际环境和俄罗斯地位的判断不同、对国家作用的认识发生了改变、提出的经济发展模式也不同,但在危机意识、强调独立发展和团结一致重建俄罗斯等方面则有延续性。     

Parenting Styles and Juvenile Delinquency: Exploring Gendered Relationships

We use the NLSY97 dataset to examine the parenting‐delinquency relationship and how it is conditioned by parents’ gender, controlling for youths’ gender. Generally, neglectful and authoritarian parenting styles were associated with the highest levels of delinquency in youths. When the sample was split by parent gender, authoritarianism held up across both groups, but permissive and neglectful parenting was only significant for fathers. Independent of parenting style, boys have higher delinquency levels than girls. The strength and magnitude of this relationship is nearly identical in separate equations for mothers and fathers. Parental attachment was not a significant protective factor against delinquency for either mothers or fathers.     

Democracy Promotion versus Engagement with Iran

US President Barack Obama has tried two very distinct policy options in dealing with Iran. The engagement policy was designed to make a break with the past experience and re-start US-Iran relations on a positive footing. This approach was consistent with the advice offered to the new administration by Iran analysts and leaders of non-governmental organisations. The implication of the engagement policy, however, was sidelining the US commitment to democracy and human rights in Iran. This policy could offer little to the budding reform movement in 2009. The alternative policy of containment was not beneficial to the reform movement either. The policy shift at the end of 2009 was a response to Iran's failure to comply with the requirements of the International Atomic Energy Agency. The containment policy, manifested in the fourth round of UN-imposed sanctions on Iran, has led to a further entrenching of the hard-liners in the regime and intolerance of internal dissent.