Going Negative

SUMMARY

In this paper we explore the relationship between candidate attack messages and news coverage during the earliest stages of the presidential nomination process. How effective are attack messages in generating media coverage? Are certain types of negative content more likely to gain coverage? Using data from the 1996 Republican presidential nomination campaign, we examine the candidate press releases that issued an attack on an opponent and the subsequent news coverage linked to it. We find that while candidates are more than willing to go negative even during the early stages of the campaign, these negative messages are no more or no less likely to generate press coverage during the early months of the presidential nomination campaign than are other types of candidate messages.     

Exports as a Determinant of Long-Run Growth in Paraguay, 1966-96

During the 1970s and early 1980s Paraguay experienced relatively high rates of economic growth as well as a boom in primary goods production destined for export. The question which this research addresses concerns the relationship between these events and the applicability of the so-called export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis. The hypothesis is investigated via the use of modern time series methods including Granger causality tests, error correction modeling, and vector autoregression. The basic conclusion reached is that the ELG does not have much relevance to the Paraguayan case.     

Strategic Leaders: Determining Successful Presidential Opinion Leadership Tactics Through Public Appeals

Most scholars find presidents generally fail at moving the public's views on policy; however, although presidents may fail at opinion leadership at the aggregate level, examining specific communication tactics may yield a more nuanced view of when presidents succeed or fail at leadership. In this article, using a comprehensive data set spanning 1953 to 2001, several strategic communication tactics through which the president might influence temporary opinion movement are examined. Findings show that presidential use of nationally televised addresses is the most consistently effective strategy to enhance presidential leadership, but the effect is lessened for later serving presidents. Strategies involving domestic travel never positively affect leadership, while televised interactions with the media always negatively affect leadership success. The cumulative results imply that presidents can momentarily lead public opinion with particular tactics and that the conditions enhancing leadership are partially in their control, suggesting presidential capability to strategically lead public opinion.     

The Campaign Disconnect: Media Coverage of the 2000 South Carolina Presidential Primary

Campaigns are an interactive process in which candidates, outside groups, the media, and voters communicate with each other to create an information environment that allows the various participants to construct meaning and form an understanding of the candidates and the campaign. Presidential primaries add a layer of complexity to this process as candidates and the press deal with both local and national audiences. In this article, we analyze the campaign communications in the 2000 Republican presidential primary in South Carolina—including candidate ads, mailings, and phone calls; local and national newspaper coverage; and network television coverage. We find that there was a disconnect as news media often focused on events and issues that diverged from the messages of the candidates' campaigns. In addition, we find substantial differences between local and national media coverage of the primary resulting from their distinct audiences and the reporters' own understanding of the local context that created significantly different information environments for voters in the state and those out of the state. We consider the implications of these findings for how voters and journalists understand the candidates as well as the challenges presidential candidates face in simultaneously campaigning locally and nationally.     

应对突发冲击的宏观调控预案设计要点探析

设计应对突发冲击的宏观调控预案应从设计合理、运行有效和检验与改进三个基本点出发。在静态预案和动态应对的权衡中使预案设计弹性化,手段选择合理化,坚持长期利益优先、直接调控和间接调控相结合;通过模拟演练、虚拟对照等方式检验和改进预案;在严密监控、多角度规划和责权明晰下保证预案的有效运行。     

福德汉姆的后荣格分析心理学

米歇尔·福德汉姆是20世纪英国杰出的心理治疗家、后荣格学者中发展流派的主要创始人之一。他以荣格集体潜意识的心灵模型为基础开展临床实践和理论思考,借鉴了当代精神分析特别是克莱因的客体关系理论,填补了分析心理学的不足。在很大程度上使分析心理学淡化了其现代神话的色彩,而增添了很多现代科学的色彩。福德汉姆对分析心理学的理论和实践的发展,既有积极贡献,也存在一定局限。     

创新基层痕迹检验工作开展的策略分析

痕迹检验作为刑事案件侦破过程中的关键环节,主要是通过对刑事案件现场或者疑似现场进行与犯罪行为相关的痕迹物证的发现与提取,并借助相应的技术手段获取其中包含的重要信息,为案件侦破提供相应信息指引和佐证。随着痕迹检验理论和技术的丰富,近年来我国基层痕迹检验工作开展的效率和效果得到了明显的提升。但同时需要注意的是,现代化技术犯罪行为的增加以及罪犯反侦查技术的使用,使得基层痕迹检验工作面临的压力不断加大。因此,基层痕迹检验工作需要通过有效的创新加以推进,从而适应形势发展的要求。     

Principled Moderation: Understanding Parties’ Support of Moderate Candidates

Recent scholarship has argued that parties strategically support more moderate, and thus more electable, candidates. Using interviews with party elites and new data on the party support and the ideology of primary candidates for the US Senate, I show that parties do support moderate candidates. However, using evidence from districts with different levels of competitiveness and over time, I find that support of moderate candidates appears not to be strategic. Rather, party support of moderate candidates appears to be the result of the ideological preferences of party leadership rather a strategic effort to win elections.     

原发性脑干损伤NF表达定量研究

目的探讨脑干神经丝蛋白的定量分析对短时间内死亡的原发性脑干损伤鉴定的法医学意义。方法14例原发性脑干损伤者的脑干标本（损伤组）和15例脑外疾病死亡者的脑干标本（对照组）,分别取中脑、脑桥及延脑组织,作NF广谱免疫组化染色,用OPTIMAS 6.0系统图像分析仪定量检测脑干的神经丝蛋白表达,所得数据进行统计学对比处理。结果中脑、脑桥、延脑的NF阳性表达率分别为75.84±23.62（对照组45.17±17.95）,65.94±14.61（对照组42.99±24.12）和83.30±26.66（对照组53.50±28.14）,损伤组与对照组的NF阳性物含量在中脑、脑桥及延脑等3个部位中均有显著差异,P〈0.001或〈0.01。结论定量分析人脑干神经丝蛋白的含量变化,超出常人数量对鉴定早期原发性脑干损伤有价值。     

论邓小平理论的两大基石

社会主义本质论和社会主义初级阶段论在邓小平理论体系中占有重要的地位，是邓小平理论的两大基石。“两论”回答了什么是初级阶段的社会主义和在初级阶段怎样建设社会主义的根本问题，是推进21世纪中国特色社会主义现代化建设的行动指南。